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Why the lib-dems are shit

The Guardian don't mention themselves being caught/pimping by sort of thing a few days ago but:

Lib Dems accused of using misleading data on election material

In analyses in July and August, the fact-checking site Full Fact criticised the Lib Dems’ use of Flavible, which had drawn on previous polling by YouGov and Survation to make claims about their candidates’ likelihood of winning key seats. They included a prediction, which Full Fact concluded was incorrect, that Corbyn would lose his seat to the Lib Dems despite the Labour leader winning the seat in 2017 with 73% of the vote.
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Full-fact started as a lib-dem op of this kind - and even they think this stinks.
 
What fucking bizzare construction :

“I cannot underestimate my horror in finding in the latest guidance these payments are only available if you stand in the same ‘seat’
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Reminds me of Johan Hari's 'imagine my disgust when i discovered what i had done' excuse for years of faking interviews, plagiarism and amending wiki entries of critics.

I cannot underestimate my horror
 
cupid_stunt said:
She's been selected for a seat where the LibDems were 3rd on a 7.7% vote share last time, oh dear. :D
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The Best for Britain MRP has Altrincham on Tories 37 Lab 21 Lib Dem 25, so I guess the Lib Dems own polling is probably showing something similar. Graham Brady's seat, but a big remain majority so it's not totally out of the question a remain candidate could take it.
 
killer b said:
The Best for Britain MRP has Altrincham on Tories 37 Lab 21 Lib Dem 25, so I guess the Lib Dems own polling is probably showing something similar. Graham Brady's seat, but a big remain majority so it's not totally out of the question a remain candidate could take it.
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Why would their own polling show the same given it's just a front to make it look like independent polling says exactly what lib-dems want to hear. In that seat in particular. It might do, but there's no connection between the two is there?
 
butchersapron said:
Why would their own polling show the same given it's just a front to make it look like independent polling says exactly what lib-dems want to hear. In that seat in particular. It might do, but there's no connection between the two is there?
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I meant the polling they base their decisions on, not the polling they release to try and bounce people into voting tactically for them.

I recognise it's a stretch either way, but they must have had something to offer her there.
 
Yeah I'd agree, it wasn't a coup to get Smith from Labour as she'd already left and she wasn't an MP for a seat that either her or Lib Dems could win. She joined the Lib Dems because she had nowhere else to go, they were hardly begging her.
 
They'll have extrapolated from the EU vote, and assumed almost nothing has changed since then. It's not a wholly stupid idea, but does rely upon the idea that people will vote as if the EU is all that matters. Which is the entire LibDem pitch, of course.
 
belboid said:
They'll have extrapolated from the EU vote, and assumed almost nothing has changed since then. It's not a wholly stupid idea, but does rely upon the idea that people will vote as if the EU is all that matters. Which is the entire LibDem pitch, of course.
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That is exactly a wholly stupid idea. And let's be honest, it's not offered genuinely. It's offered to trick people. I am expecting a slow nibble away at their polling as previous labour voters come to realise the full horror and recoil.
 
butchersapron said:
I think you're overestimating.
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I'm not overestimating anything, just speculating. We know the Lib Dems are doing a load of MRP modelling, and the one MRP model we have the data from more or less supports the idea that the Lib Dems are in contention in Altrincham as things stand. Maybe that model is bullshit (although overall it's well within the bounds of current polling), and either way things are going to shift before Dec 12 - but there's no way Smith would have moved and risked losing her 22 grand unless they showed her some convincing data that it was winnable.
 
killer b said:
I'm not overestimating anything, just speculating. We know the Lib Dems are doing a load of MRP modelling, and the one MRP model we have the data from more or less supports the idea that the Lib Dems are in contention in Altrincham as things stand. Maybe that model is bullshit (although overall it's well within the bounds of current polling), and either way things are going to shift before Dec 12 - but there's no way Smith would have moved and risked losing her 22 grand unless they showed her some convincing data that it was winnable.
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They're idiots not infallible robots. She had to move. The closest one to getting her back in might have been the best of a set of desperate unwinning choices.
 
Why did she have to move? If she'd stood as an indie (or even a lib dem) in Penistone she'd have lost and got 20 grand. Now she's going to lose and get fuck all.
 
killer b said:
Why did she have to move? If she'd stood as an indie (or even a lib dem) in Penistone she'd have lost and got 20 grand. Now she's going to lose and get fuck all.
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I was guessing that she was desperate to go somewhere a bit more winnable and that's what they offered her. But I might be trying to find logic where there is none.
 
killer b said:
Why did she have to move? If she'd stood as an indie (or even a lib dem) in Penistone she'd have lost and got 20 grand. Now she's going to lose and get fuck all.
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I don't care about the 20 grand. It's irrelevant. She wanted to remain an MP - i thought that you were indicating this was the best way for her to do so (or al least viable) and backed up by some form of polling. That she'd ended up on this one doesn't mean she has a chance, it might mean that so poor were the pickings this was the best she had open to her.
 
Ah, no I don't think there's any chance she'd win, and I don't think there ever was. But she was convinced by the LDs that there was.
 
Anywhere the libs really have a chance, they've had candidates for for ages, so can't parachute anyone in. They have to find some places to shoehorn these people into, and they can convince themselves that an ex-Labour MP is going to have a decent chance of picking up more ex-Labour voters. There may be a couple of places where it could work (the specific circumstances in Finchley, maybe), but I don't see any great reason to believe it would in Altrincham.
 
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