Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Flavour]

A simple prediction thread.

I think Harris will win but by a very very narrow margin, but will take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. Trump to take north Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and Florida.

 

[Idaho]

In my lifetime election results have, on the whole, been depressing. I don't see why this one will be any different.

 

[PR1Berske]

Harris should win. I don't want to go too far into "alternative history" thinking about a Trump victory, though the US as a functioning country would cease within months were he to win. Harris is no way perfect, but there's a genuine choice here: repairing a fractured country, or letting it burn.

 

[Idaho]

though the US as a functioning country would cease within months were he to win

That's nonsense really. His previous administration was marked with a lot of tweeting and not much action.

 

[Yossarian]

I think revulsion at the strict post-Roe abortion bans, plus abortion referendums in numerous states, will boost turnout in a way that should deliver a solid win for Harris, but I won't be totally surprised if Trump manages to pull off another narrow Electoral College victory

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeh sure Harris will win the popular vote but not so confident she'll win the electoral college

 

[PR1Berske]

That's nonsense really. His previous administration was marked with a lot of tweeting and not much action.

His previous regime was groundwork. Get the judges in place, get the base riled, write the rules for a game yet to be played. His victory means the next steps: the older justices resign "on health grounds" so he gets younger extremists locked in for life. Then it's civil war.

 

[Ax^]

That's nonsense really. His previous administration was marked with a lot of tweeting and not much action.

hmm did he not load the supreme court which has already lead to an over turn of row Vs wade? amongst other shit

 

[stavros]

I don't know, and I'm not prepared to even put my neck out. Harris will win the popular vote by a mile, but Hillary Clinton did that too.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Have you decided who you're voting for yet petee?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Yeh sure Harris will win the popular vote but not so confident she'll win the electoral college

This.

 

[Yossarian]

84% of us guessed wrong in 2016

Who's gonna win Clinton or Trump? Poll!

I'm ace at predictioning election results :facepalm: So here's your chance to lay yer card on the table. Who'll be declared the winner at some point in the early hours? Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?

www.urban75.net

 

[blairsh]

Nobody

 

[emanymton]

Trump, as I'm in prepare for the worst mode.

 

[Idaho]

hmm did he not load the supreme court which has already lead to an over turn of row Vs wade? amongst other shit

But does that count as the country ceasing to function?

 

[mx wcfc]

Trump, as I'm in prepare for the worst mode.

Yeah, me too,

Depressing, isn't it.

 

[emanymton]

Yeah, me too,

Depressing, isn't it.

Yeah, but at least there is a chance things won't be as bad as I think.

 

[pbsmooth]

Trump. The only thing I’m clinging too is that last time he wasn’t as disastrous as feared - he was just the rude, racist, bigoted idiot we all know he is and we had to listen to it for years. In fact I stopped looking at the news for much of his presidency.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

His previous regime was groundwork. Get the judges in place, get the base riled, write the rules for a game yet to be played. His victory means the next steps: the older justices resign "on health grounds" so he gets younger extremists locked in for life. Then it's civil war.

Not that he won't fuck up all sorts of stuff because he's a rancid turd of a human being but this requires a much longer term commitment than he has imo. He's interested in being president for his own ego not some long term apocalyptic vision.

 

[Cloo]

I think it'll be Trump, for reasons I cannot fathom. But then it'll be Vance in short order because Trump will have to retire because, though I've been resisting that narrative, I think he is actually losing it and becoming totally incoherent as can be seen by the fact they're keeping him away now from anyone except the red hats

 

[Cloo]

My hope is he won't put Project 2025 into practice because he's too arrogant to do someone else's idea, but Vance could be another matter.

 

[PR1Berske]

Yeah that's the thing about Vance, he's dangerous and young, young enough to see through the Project 2025 plan.

 

[Humberto]

I'm hoping the polls go more strongly towards indicating a Harris win in the next two weeks. I'll plump for a solid Harris win at this uncertain stage, moreso in hope.

 

[Lotte]

Trump, as I'm in prepare for the worst mode.

Same. I just can't see the US electing a black woman, plus he won last time. Although Vance is the one I'm more worried about.

 

[LakieLady]

I think it's too close to call.

I hope it will be Harris and fear it will be Trump.

 

[ID47]

Harris will win the popular vote by a couple of million votes, Trump will win the electoral college.

It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.

Then there will be Vance...

 

[LakieLady]

Same. I just can't see the US electing a black woman, plus he won last time. Although Vance is the one I'm more worried about.

If Trump wins, he'll just be holding a place for Vance for as long as it takes him to pardon himself for all the shite he's done imo.

 

[lazythursday]

I think Trump will win. There's just a grim inevitability about it.

The next week Starmer will fly over and crawl up his arse ineffectually, Trump will humiliate him in some way and the whole thing will be deeply excruciating.

 

[MickiQ]

I think it's too close to call.

I hope it will be Harris and fear it will be Trump.

^^ This ^^

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think Harris will walk it.

But...I did speak with my dad earlier who'd just come off the phone with two old friends who live in Florida, the man is a highly educated finance type guy, he's 100% behind Trump, likes the idea that he's not wasting US cash on foreign countries. His position is a bit Brexity, yet his wife is Dutch and they lived in the UK for 30 years, so you'd think he'd know how that's panning out for the UK, but apparently not.

So when there's people who have been very successful in life and who are generally fairly rational who support Trump, who fucking knows?