Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

[rekil]

Skeletor

Spoiler: Nope

 

[billy_bob]

God, what a shower of shite.

OK, some are marginally less inadequate than the others, but not one has enough humanity to form an actual human. They'd struggle to do it between them.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I tipped JRM way back. This is not an endorsement BTW.

 

[brogdale]

Rudd all over the media this am touting "Norway +" & breaking ranks by contemplating the defeat.

Might shorten her odds?

 

[StoneRoad]

if TM is unseated by vote of no confidence, then I don't think she can stand again, I'm sure I heard or read that somewhere recently.

Of the others, they are all a cower of shunts.
No idea which one I would pick, in my mind at least, they all have major faults of some sort or another (apart from being a tory, of course)

 

[SpackleFrog]

Been thinking about this for a while, Gove seems both the obvious and the impossible choice. I mean, PM Gove? It just sounds like something out of Tolkien.

I've gone Amber Rudd. Why not? She's obviously very much up for it, it's not going to a Brexiteer and I'm starting to think the Tory rebels with real numbers are the Remainers. Comments here swayed me: Anything could happen if MPs don't back May's Brexit deal, says Rudd

 

[SpackleFrog]

Think Hunt is also a potential favourite but seems to damaged/toxic from his time at Health. Javid is supposed to be the front runner so he's not.

 

[mauvais]

Assuming that May does wield the revolver and do the decent thing at some stage in the coming month...

And offs the rest of the party?

 

[mauvais]

I think that even if there's a vote of no confidence and a change in leadership, we might end up in a remarkably similar position to today.

I'm not saying it would be the same, because apparently that would be against a rule, but similar. For example they might be a whole different person called Mheresa Tay. And they might have slightly different hair. And they might look even more nervous, and be permanently followed around by a sharp little red dot that threatens to graduate into a fuzzy big red dot if they ever thought they could little-L leave.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

if TM is unseated by vote of no confidence, then I don't think she can stand again, I'm sure I heard or read that somewhere recently.

depends what sort of vote of no confidence - TM is leader of the conservative party and PM, and the two things are separate.

if it's a vote of no confidence as party leader (following 48 letters to 1922 committee chairman) then if incumbent leader of the party loses, they can not stand in the leadership contest. (new stoatsperson article here)

if it's a parliamentary vote of no confidence in the government, then all MPs get to vote, and whatever the result, TM would still be party leader unless she either resigned or if it went to a party vote of no confidence.

 

[stavros]

I can understand why they'd go for Hunt, as he's sort of kept his powder relatively dry on Europe, both before and after the referendum. I suppose it's a bit like what May did in the build up to the 2016 leadership bid.

 

[Sasaferrato]

depends what sort of vote of no confidence - TM is leader of the conservative party and PM, and the two things are separate.

if it's a vote of no confidence as party leader (following 48 letters to 1922 committee chairman) then if incumbent leader of the party loses, they can not stand in the leadership contest. (new stoatsperson article here)

if it's a parliamentary vote of no confidence in the government, then all MPs get to vote, and whatever the result, TM would still be party leader unless she either resigned or if it went to a party vote of no confidence.

I gather though that the DUP will support the government in a 'no confidence' vote. No one wants a General Election.

 

[Humberto]

I'd hope not Boris Johnson. Cameron/Osborne politics with an affable, harmless exterior/persona.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I can understand why they'd go for Hunt, as he's sort of kept his powder relatively dry on Europe, both before and after the referendum. I suppose it's a bit like what May did in the build up to the 2016 leadership bid.

Aye but the same strategy may not work the second time around.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I'd hope not Boris Johnson. Cameron/Osborne politics with an affable, harmless exterior/persona.

Boris has blown his chance I think.

 

[Humberto]

Boris has blown his chance I think.

Difficult to see it on this go round. More popular with the membership than the parliamentary party, last I heard.

 

[brogdale]

Difficult to see it on this go round. More popular with the membership than the parliamentary party, last I heard.

With PCP gate-keeping to present 'top 2' to membership, he has zero chance.

 

[killer b]

I've got Johnson listed in the 'fucked' column, but the BBC news opened with his speech to parliament the other night so I guess some people still think he's got a chance.

 

[stavros]

Aye but the same strategy may not work the second time around.

You're right, of course. On the other hand, someone who's firmly nailed to one camp or the other on Brexit, like Javid one way or Gove the other, would split the party even further. Tories may hate or love Europe, but do they not love themselves more?

 

[brogdale]

I seem to have overlooked Esther McVay...oh dear.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You're right, of course. On the other hand, someone who's firmly nailed to one camp or the other on Brexit, like Javid one way or Gove the other, would split the party even further. Tories may hate or love Europe, but do they not love themselves more?

True. But how many really hardline Brexiters are there? How much would they lose by cutting them adrift? We've seen the ERG didn't have the support to get rid of May.

 

[not a trot]

I voted other, other being steaming pile of dogshit.

 

[Raheem]

On the other hand, someone who's firmly nailed to one camp or the other [...]

Get the Scouts to help out with the executions. Like your thinking.

 

[kebabking]

True. But how many really hardline Brexiters are there? How much would they lose by cutting them adrift? We've seen the ERG didn't have the support to get rid of May.

I think it's become apparent that there a significant difference between brexiteers/hardline brexiteers, and the ERG - iirc something like 50% of the 2015 GE PCP voted leave, which is 150+ Tory MP's. The ERG is pretty obviously nothing like that.

I think Hunt is probably the front runner - he was remain at the referendum, but grasped leave like a convert. That's enough for the majority of brexiteers, and acceptable for the remainers who knows where his heart lies - it's also important in the Tory party that he has served May loyally.

Rudd stood little chance because both of her vinerable seat and very remainy attitude - but she's shot herself in the foot by her actions this week in chopping Mays legs out from under her. Tory MP's don't rate May, she has been a great disappointment to them, but they respect her for her dogged determination to get on with it regardless of how humiliating each defeat is - they also pity her. They don't like people stabbing her in the back - particularly friends she has given a second chance to.

 

[agricola]

Tobias Ellwood - solely on the grounds that he isn't overly tainted with this farce, nor the farce of the last eight years, he has never been so prominent to be worth his peers hating him, he has no real defined stance on anything and he is perhaps the one Tory MP currently serving that they would think that ordinary people might actually convince themselves would be worth respecting.

 

[tim]

Gove is probably the most capable but.

Trying to bring unity by reprising his chaplain role.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Trying to bring unity by reprising his chaplain role.

really quite versatile

 

[Sprocket.]

Just heard a snippet were Dominic Grieve was saying this could be the end of the Conservative party as we know it!
What a set of snivelling, back stabbers?

 

[DotCommunist]

this could be the end of the Conservative party as we know it

believe when its beheaded and buried at the crossroads with an orange in its mouth.

Even then, might have to take off and nuke it from orbit

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Just heard a snippet were Dominic Grieve was saying this could be the end of the Conservative party as we know it!