Who is going to win the 2016 Tory leadership election?

[Fozzie Bear]

Has Teresa May been out campaigning for Remain? Would that matter?

 

[skyscraper101]

I still reckon David Davis. Long-term Eurosceptic, has kept a very low profile, not a member of the Government while all this was going on and not implicated in all the recent blue on blue action.

Might be seen as a bit old but the growing up on a council estate thing (according to his Wikipedia entry) would likely be viewed as a plus point.

He's a liability. I can't see it.

 

[kebabking]

He's a liability. I can't see it.

Yeah, I'd see him as still part of that Hague-IDS-Howard period, and probably too socially conservative to get much of the under 40 demographic.

My bet on May, or possibly Hammond as safe pairs of hands to get the negotiations done, with someone like Crabb to roll in six months before the 2020 GE.

Johnson might be media, bookies and public favourite, but a very significant number of Tory MP's loathe him.

 

[skyscraper101]

Still Johnson was a two-term winning Mayor of London. So he's not exactly un-electable.

 

[QueenOfGoths]

The local paper are already creaming themselves that Theresa May is in the running

Could Theresa May be the UK's next Prime Minister?

 

[krtek a houby]

Boris, because.

 

[Wilhelmina.Trav]

I think there was an option missing "out the Tories n have a general election" i wish. I don't want any of them to win they're all as bad n it's doom no matter who gets it. Tereasa May was the one who came up with the stupid psychoactive substancebill n ignored advice from people who knew what they were talking about n God help us if she gets in charge.

Evey

 

[Wilf]

Is there any sign of a backlash (against Johnson and gove) in the tory party? If there's a steady stream of job loss announcements johnson might struggle.

 

[kebabking]

Is there any sign of a backlash (against Johnson and gove) in the tory party? If there's a steady stream of job loss announcements johnson might struggle.

well, they'll earn the undying emnity of an MP in a marginal/swing constituancy that has job losses directly because of brexit...

that said, the tories have demonstrated before their practicality - Cameron has never been overly popular either politically or personally, but he was elected leader in 2005 because they saw him as someone who could win them an election. they do, at least, know that imperfect power yeilds better results than perfect impotence...

 

[Mr.Bishie]

The bookies have the "mop haired cunt" odds on at 8/11, & "under 35k & you're out" at 9/4

 

[stavros]

I presume Ken Clarke won't be running again after yesterday?

 

[Wilf]

Don't think I'm going to start predicting anything after last night where, even up till about 3 a.m. I was indignantly insisting remain would win when all the London votes came in.

 

[Wilf]

Some examples of my find analytical mind in action, processing the data, working through the statistical models.

Until they get a few London results along with Manchester or Birmingham, all the BBC punditry is bollocks. For the next 90 minutes they should just show pictures of dogs pushing prams.

Still not sure why the various gadges in the studio are thinking leave will win. Virtually all of remains' best areas are yet to come, inc. the big population areas.

Apart from Sunderland, no massive overperformances by leave - and there have been reports of very big remain leads in London and Birmingham. If Birmingham goes remain with 55-60% as mentioned it would wipe out leave's lead. No idea who will win, I'm just really saying the assumptions the BBC have used to measure individual results are very flaky.

Just seen Liverpool - big remain. Remain are going to win.

Curtis just said leave slight favourites. I really don't see it with the big city results to come.

I've always assumed the polls are overstating leave, for the usual/obvious reasons (leave as the vehicle for protest votes which might not become actual votes on the day; remain as the status quo position - allied with 'project fear' beginning to have some effect). Must admit I did expect remain to have had a clearer lead this week, with the impact of the murder - they've had the best of the polls, but it hasn't been unanimous. Same time, as they've been suggesting on the news, the bookies probably have a better sense of it than the pollsters. I'd expect something like - fuck knows - 55-45, or even wider. Enough for remain to have got away with it and enough to stop leave mounting any kind of campaign for a re-run in the next decade.

 

[killer b]

poetry innit

 

[Biscuitician]

I'd include Ratface Grayling on that list, he won't have a chance but i wouldn't put it past him having a go.

 

[Wilf]

If I took up the Psychic business, it would probably go like this:

 

[redsquirrel]

Darth May is the only one who hasn't publicly shit the bed in some way over the last 6 months

No idea how accurate it is but the political experts were saying that she isn't liked in the party.

I reckon belboid could be right, an outsider, perhaps not Crabb but somebody like him.

Though like Wilf I'm doing pretty shit in the prediction stakes.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

I do think the poll should have Nicky Morgan as a comedy option though.

I've just seen her on the tellybox saying she might put herself forward

 

[Mr.Bishie]

 

[brogdale]

Leadsom in from 25 to 16.

 

[brogdale]

May & Johnson joint favoruites atm.
They do say...that the vermin never pick a 'favourite'.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Theresa May is the steady option, but I think she's too disliked among MPs. Stephen Crabb I've heard mentioned a lot but don't know a lot about. They love picking leaders the rest of the country has never heard of in the Tory party, so maybe.

Just please not Johnson.

 

[brogdale]

Theresa May is the steady option, but I think she's too disliked among MPs. Stephen Crabb I've heard mentioned a lot but don't know a lot about. They love picking leaders the rest of the country has never heard of in the Tory party, so maybe.

Just please not Johnson.

Of course it wouldn't enter their heads/matter to them/alter their decision in any way...but doesn't Crabb come across like a particularly odious little shit of an estate agent?

 

[wheelie_bin]

I don't know, I keep forgetting what he looks like or anything about him. I'll go and wiki him for the 5th time.

 

[Lurdan]

FWIW a poll in the Times :

The home secretary is the favourite to replace the prime minister, according to a YouGov poll that shows her as the preferred successor among Conservative voters: 31 per cent back her, against 24 per cent for Mr Johnson.

In April Mr Johnson was on 36 per cent and Mrs May on 14 per cent. Mrs May is also narrowly ahead among the public, with 19 per cent against 18 per cent for the former London mayor. The latest result questions the assumption that Mr Johnson is the darling of party activists after his Brexit triumph in the EU referendum.

 

[Lurdan]

Hilarious piece in The Sun :

A blue collar ‘dream team’ of two working class Tory Cabinet ministers are planning to run to stop Boris Johnson becoming PM. Leadership hopeful Stephen Crabb was last night in talks with Sajid Javid to become his deputy on the ticket. The Work and Pensions Secretary and the Business Secretary are being pushed by younger Tory MPs elected in 2010 and 2015. The duo are being seen as representing a new generation of Tories with humble roots closer to the general public, in stark contrast to the “Bullingdon Club” era of Old Etonians, David Cameron and Mr Johnson. Mr Crabb, 43, grew up with a single mum on a housing estate in Pembrokeshire, West Wales. And Mr Javid, 46, is the son of a bus driver from Bristol.

 

[bi0boy]

Is there any sign of a backlash (against Johnson and gove) in the tory party? If there's a steady stream of job loss announcements johnson might struggle.

Apparently lots of Tory MPs are very busy plotting to exclude Johnson from the final two candidates who will be put to the members.

 

[hash tag]

Who cares who will be next leader? Will they be must different from the current incumbent?
Holding my nose, screwing my face up; I see Ruth Davidson is not in the poll, does she not qualify?

 

[wheelie_bin]

I think Ruth Davidson already came out supporting someone because her name is nowhere to be found in any recent discussion. She was also very strongly supporting remain, they'll want somebody who was quieter. Or people presume she'll be too busy working to keep Scotland in the UK / leaving with it.

 

[brogdale]

Crabbs has confirmed his candidature.