As of now I'd say you're right, but I know how unpredictable polls can be.
When will the lib dem split happen?
- Thread starter frogwoman
- Start date
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
granted
King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
Basically what Strethamite said.
The Lib Dems have slowly climbed into government over the last 40 years, using success in local elections (in particular in post-industrial cities) as footholds. In May, they will suffer a catastophic wipeout. Grassroots party members (those that have the cheek/stomach to hit the doorsteps to campaign) will be sick of having doors slammed in their faces, cllrs will lose their seats, and a lot of the flagship LD councils on which the party has built it's base will turn from yellow to red. Not least Sheffield, where the result will be taken as a personal verdict on Cleggers.
I also agree with Strethamite about the likely LD response to this. The party top brass will want to hang on, but the grassroots will never want to go through another election like that, and they'll resort to wrecking the coalition and booting out Clegg.
No doubt Cameron and his lot can smell all this coming a mile off, and are probably already heaping the pressure on Clegg and Danny Alexander and the rest of them to protect the coalition (current polling would suggest a possible Labour majority if an election was held tomorrow). I'm not actually sure what they can do about it though if their party turns on them.
The Lib Dems have slowly climbed into government over the last 40 years, using success in local elections (in particular in post-industrial cities) as footholds. In May, they will suffer a catastophic wipeout. Grassroots party members (those that have the cheek/stomach to hit the doorsteps to campaign) will be sick of having doors slammed in their faces, cllrs will lose their seats, and a lot of the flagship LD councils on which the party has built it's base will turn from yellow to red. Not least Sheffield, where the result will be taken as a personal verdict on Cleggers.
I also agree with Strethamite about the likely LD response to this. The party top brass will want to hang on, but the grassroots will never want to go through another election like that, and they'll resort to wrecking the coalition and booting out Clegg.
No doubt Cameron and his lot can smell all this coming a mile off, and are probably already heaping the pressure on Clegg and Danny Alexander and the rest of them to protect the coalition (current polling would suggest a possible Labour majority if an election was held tomorrow). I'm not actually sure what they can do about it though if their party turns on them.
In Birmingham your in coalition with the Tories.
In the Wednesbury North ward a couple of days ago you came 4th behind the NF. Labour took the seat, the Tories have held it for 30+ years. I know it's not a Libdem area but come on, you got beat by the NF. You're utterly fucked.
Labour: 1320
Conservative: 643
National Front: 76
Libdem: 45
Green: 42
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Now that is a hammering!
As a matter of interest, how would you describe the demographics of the Wednesbury North ward?
It's in Sandwell Council, and we got beaten by the BNP last time around. It's worth noting there is a decrease in the number of Labour voters too, so bascially what happened is that only Labour managed to get it's vote out.
beaten by the nazis. and thats BEFORE you showed your true colours - love to see what will happen next time!
I could probably find you a ward where the BNP have beaten Labour, Conservatives or green too. I don't know why you are crowing about the success of a facist group. What was the socialist vote like BTW?
I don't know it well but Wednesbury is just another bit of Walsall - not a lot going for it. http://sandwelltrends.info/Themedpages/WPSumm/WPGZ
You can't compare the NF to the BNP.
Why not?
Because the BNP are an organised party and the NF are a fucking joke. The Libdems and the NF in that ward are fringe parties with a few lunatics who'll come and support them.
i am using the BNP as a benchmark for hatred
You seem to be talking shite.
WEDNESBURY NORTH:
William Archer (Con) 2,115
Babubhai Patel (Lab) 553
http://www.birminghampost.net/news/local-elections/sandwell/
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
It won't happen, IMO.
What might happen is that some Lib-Dems will cross the floor, in both directions.
What might happen is that some Lib-Dems will cross the floor, in both directions.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Top!
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
'Well hellloo, David'
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Let's emphasise that this is a drop in the lib-dem vote from 534 to 45 since the election and your partners in crime fell from 1989 to 643. The same night labour took a seat directly from you in liverpool. They are dead in the cities and they are dead in the SW.
King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
Yay!
6 Councillors leave the Lib Dems in Rochdale - stating "The party are doing too many U-turns"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-11796443
These are just the Canaries in the mine, btw.
In other by-election news, the Tories came 9th! in a double by-election in Croxteth (hardly Kensington and Chelsea, I know, but 9th!)
Glad to see that while the Lib Dems are getting all the flack they so richly deserve, people haven't taken their eyes of the ball when it comes to hating the Tories.
6 Councillors leave the Lib Dems in Rochdale - stating "The party are doing too many U-turns"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-11796443
These are just the Canaries in the mine, btw.
In other by-election news, the Tories came 9th! in a double by-election in Croxteth (hardly Kensington and Chelsea, I know, but 9th!)
Glad to see that while the Lib Dems are getting all the flack they so richly deserve, people haven't taken their eyes of the ball when it comes to hating the Tories.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
ooh look, yet another local minisplit!
e2a: BUGGER! KBT got there just before me!
and this, I would add, is traditionally a good place for libdems - Cyril Smith's old seat
e2a: BUGGER! KBT got there just before me!
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
The power of google to deliver the same answers.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
How many Lib Dem MPs would need to have tragic fatal accidents for the coalition to collapse?
Am I missing something here?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Do you mean me saying you instead of they? I replied to the wrong post, had to change it from you/they throughout and manage to leave that one in. If you mean it looks like support for labour - it's not!
I'm being a bit slow whilst in a rush so i may have missed something even more obvious...
I'm being a bit slow whilst in a rush so i may have missed something even more obvious...
I can't even see the libdems listed in that count from 2010 - not in the two Wednesbury wards anyway
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I can't even see the libdems listed in that count from 2010 - not in the two Wednesbury wards anyway
Ah, in that case you are missing something - the link to the may results - sorry.
British National Party 615 12.1%
The Conservative Party Candidate 1989 39.2% Elected
The Labour Party Candidate 1938 38.2%
Liberal Democrat 534 10.5%
edit: which doesn't agree with the brum posts figures! Nor do the names match - is there another ward with same name a little bit eastwards maybe?
Ah, appears the b-post result was from 2008.
Aha, cheers. Total collapse of the Libdem vote 
King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
I first saw that story by following a link in a tweet by a Sheffield cllr who defected from the Lib Dems a couple of months ago. So nerr
ooh look, yet another local minisplit!
and this, I would add, is traditionally a good place for libdems - Cyril Smith's old seat
e2a: BUGGER! KBT got there just before me!
What's the full story here though, they say they were not re-selected. The party has introduced new selection procedure which is being used in some places to de-select Councillors unpopular with their local party.
Yes, hence why FreddyB said I was talking shit about the Labour vote falling. I was trying to look at the local Council's site, maybe I got it wrong too though.
Similar threads
- Poll
