Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election

[zedr]

I think the fact that Labour polled 18k votes in the 2019 GE and 13.5k in 2023 at a by-election at a time when the Tories national polling is at an all time low says something really .

doesn't look good for new new labour. turnout was down 21.1%, so in theory they should have been able to get around 14.3k votes.

doubt this will lead to any meaningful reflection. the central party will find excuses ans point at their one big win elsewhere. guess they're polling so well nationally that they don't really need to give a fuck.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Lord Camomile]

I know these are particular circumstances, but there is usually a significant drop-off in turnout from GEs to by-elections, right? How does this compare in that regard?

 

[Lord Camomile]

I mean, that's arguably true for pretty much everyone, right?

Whether politics or the pub, it's much easier to attack something than to try and put together a coherent and defendable plan/argument yourself.

 

[The39thStep]

Apart from railway ticket office closures which you support

 

[Elpenor]

Apart from railway ticket office closures which you support

Perhaps voting should be by app?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

doesn't look good for new new labour. turnout was down 21.1%, so in theory they should have been able to get around 14.3k votes.

doubt this will lead to any meaningful reflection. the central party will find excuses ans point at their one big win elsewhere. guess they're polling so well nationally that they don't really need to give a fuck.

The only reflection will be that they need to press harder on the accelerator marked 'discredited centrist Blairite offer'.

 

[Tanya1982]

Lawrence Summers proposed that Africa, as a whole, was ‘vastly underpolluted’, and suggested that ‘the economic logic behind dumping a whole load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable.’

That is fucking sociopathic.

 

[prunus]

One thing I don’t understand about ulez and this seems best place to ask.

For petrol cars it is those older that 2006, but does that mean next year it’s cars older than 2007, then cars older than 2008 in 2025 etc

I don’t think so, no, I think a car is either compliant or it isn’t, there isn’t an age-based limit being imposed, it’s an amount of pollution emitted limit. It just so happens that in 2006 other regulations were tightened so that pretty much all petrol engines since then emit less than the limit.

That’s not to say the limit on emissions couldn’t be lowered at some point, which would presumably take out some older cars, but it wouldn’t be because of their age per se, and it won’t happen automatically as time passes.

I think.

 

[sleaterkinney]

ULEZ is another one of these things that gets people riled up even if it doesn't really affect them. Feeds into the whole idea of govt vs freeeeedom, plus simply having to pay for something you previously didn't have to.

You might want to think about where opposition to this and other green stuff really comes from.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I know these are particular circumstances, but there is usually a significant drop-off in turnout from GEs to by-elections, right? How does this compare in that regard?

Yeah low turnout is absolutely standard in byelections - it's a massive stretch to try and read anything into that particular element tbh.

 

[magneze]

The thing about ULEZ is it doesn't effect that large a percentage of car and van owners significantly as most have compliant vehicles but those it does effect are extremely pissed off, especially if they are people who use their cars for what they consider essential purposes such as visiting family members and just can't afford to buy a compliant one.

In some outer London boroughs many car owners never use buses and in some areas buses are inconvenient unless you are willing to walk half a mile or so to make connections. I'm quite happy to turn a thirty minute car journey into a sixty minute bus and walk one but for many that is unattractive.

ULEZ has transformed the air in central London and if it drives more people out of their cars in outer London all the better but I do appreciate people's objections.

Living just outside ULEZ is shit. We get all the pollution. Can't wait for the expansion.

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah low turnout is absolutely standard in byelections - it's a massive stretch to try and read anything into that particular element tbh.

Most byelections are due to the death of the incumbent MP.

 

[magneze]

In this case a political death.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Most byelections are due to the death of the incumbent MP.

Ah, if only...

 

[Smokeandsteam]

You might want to think about where opposition to this and other green stuff really comes from.

You might want to think about the wider considerations highlighted by this result and what it tells us about the popular mood. People want change, people want hope, people want a sense that politicians get it. They do not want saggy remainer centrists pledging more cuts, more austerity, more of the same.

Given everything - Johnson, Truss, the cost of living, the NHS, education - the fact that the centrists allowed the election to become framed around a single policy (that's actually a tory policy) doesn't say much about a) their political acumen or b) their credibility with the electorate and how voters feels about their policy ‘offer’.

It should be close to impossible to lose to the Tories in any election, anywhere, at this point, but these clowns are specialists in failure.

 

[Lord Camomile]

In this case a political death.

Alas...

(Fun fact: that's the first image that comes up in the search, and the context is a Telegraph article about Johnson )

 

[pbsmooth]

You might want to think about where opposition to this and other green stuff really comes from.

why don't you just say what you mean and we can skip a few steps?

 

[sleaterkinney]

You might want to think about the wider considerations highlighted by this result and what it tells us about the popular mood. People want change, people want hope, people want a sense that politicians get it. They do not want saggy remainer centrists pledging more cuts, more austerity, more of the same.

Given everything - Johnson, Truss, the cost of living, the NHS, education - the fact that the centrists allowed the election to become framed around a single policy (that's actually a tory policy) doesn't say much about a) their political acumen or b) their credibility with the electorate and how voters feels about their policy ‘offer’.

It should be close to impossible to lose to the Tories in any election, anywhere, at this point, but these clowns are specialists in failure.

Are you really clinging on to this?. Labour just overturned a 20k majority.

 

[The39thStep]

No Russian influence detected at this stage but early days.

Thread by @paulmasonnews on Thread Reader App

@paulmasonnews: I campaigned in Uxbridge and here's why I think Labour failed to win. 1/ ULEZ - it's a community entirely based around the car and the Tories made it a single issue campaign .... but...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[MickiQ]

One thing I don’t understand about ulez and this seems best place to ask.

For petrol cars it is those older that 2006, but does that mean next year it’s cars older than 2007, then cars older than 2008 in 2025 etc

It's not actually anything to do with the age of the car but the emission standards it meets, for a petrol car it is Euro 4 which became compulsory from Jan 2006 though there were cars that met it earlier than that. (Mrs Q's old Micra was 2007 but I believe Micra's were already at Euro 4 by around 2003/4). Her current Yaris is Euro 6. For Diesels it's (the much stricter) Euro 6 standard which has been mandatory since Sept 2015 but again there are cars a bit older than that meet it. Not all though my A6 Audi is a 2014 plate and is at Euro 5. I've never driven it in London but I have had to fork out for the Birmingham ULEZ a couple of times.

 

[DotCommunist]

.

 

[Brainaddict]

Voting Tory because a Labour mayor did ULEZ is like voting for a Labour prime minister because your Tory council hasn't been emptying your bins. Fucking stupid.

One of the few times I canvassed for a national election a life-long trade unionist stood on the doorstep and told me he didn't think he could vote labour any more because of all the speed bumps the local council had put on local roads.

 

[spitfire]

I don’t think so, no, I think a car is either compliant or it isn’t, there isn’t an age-based limit being imposed, it’s an amount of pollution emitted limit. It just so happens that in 2006 other regulations were tightened so that pretty much all petrol engines since then emit less than the limit.

That’s not to say the limit on emissions couldn’t be lowered at some point, which would presumably take out some older cars, but it wouldn’t be because of their age per se, and it won’t happen automatically as time passes.

I think.

It's not actually anything to do with the age of the car but the emission standards it meets, for a petrol car it is Euro 4 which became compulsory from Jan 2006 though there were cars that met it earlier than that. (Mrs Q's old Micra was 2007 but I believe Micra's were already at Euro 4 by around 2003/4). Her current Yaris is Euro 6. For Diesels it's (the much stricter) Euro 6 standard which has been mandatory since Sept 2015 but again there are cars a bit older than that meet it. Not all though my A6 Audi is a 2014 plate and is at Euro 5. I've never driven it in London but I have had to fork out for the Birmingham ULEZ a couple of times.

Both correct, my 2002 BMW petrol estate is compliant.

 

[Karl Masks]

Are you really clinging on to this?. Labour just overturned a 20k majority.

How does that disprove the general trend of Labour being almost unelectably shit at everything and constantly allowing the Tories to frame the narrative.

 

[Gromit]

How does that disprove the general trend of Labour being almost unelectably shit at everything and constantly allowing the Tories to frame the narrative.

The narrative is that Labour are shit but that the Tories are shitter.

This is borne out but the fact that the Conservatives are bleeding power left right and centre but that Labour are only picking up some of that dropped power with others also benefiting.

 

[Chz]

Both correct, my 2002 BMW petrol estate is compliant.

The catch here is that the air pollutants that they're trying to control the most are quite easy to moderate in a petrol engine. Which is why there are loads and loads of cars that meet the petrol Euro4 standard before it was law. Diesels are quite resistant to emissions control, Euro6 is expensive to implement. There are very few diesel cars that will be compliant from before Euro6 was law, and the vast majority of those will only be in the one year prior to it.

I know it's quite off-topic for this thread, but the one thing that's really annoyed me about the local protesters is that they seem to think they're being forced to buy a brand new car. When there are 20 year-old petrol cars for £500 that are ULEZ compliant.

 

[The39thStep]

The narrative is that Labour are shit but that the Tories are shitter.

This is borne out but the fact that the Conservatives are bleeding power left right and centre but that Labour are only picking up some of that dropped power with others also benefiting.

I think you mean votes not power

 

[Gromit]

I think you mean votes not power

Votes are power and their power is getting weaker and weaker.

 

[sleaterkinney]

How does that disprove the general trend of Labour being almost unelectably shit at everything and constantly allowing the Tories to frame the narrative.

What general trend and narrative is this?.

The Tories are seen as shit and Labour are a government in waiting.