Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[Chz]

So the madness returns. Did it ever go away? Excited talk of troop capabilities taking on the Russians. Madness.

I don't think anyone's excited, or at least I hope not. It comes from a very rational take that any ceasefire will need some sort of enforcement. One that will actually be a deterrence. Personally, the last thing (now that Trump's back and that ship has sailed) I want to see on the evening news is the RAF dropping bombs on Russians. Or anyone really, but that unfortunately happens with some regularity. I know you like to picture a group of posters here rubbing their thighs Vic Reeves style at the thought of it, but it's certainly not true for me, and I rather doubt it's true of anyone else here.

Edit: It's probably true that any hypothetical what-iffery about Russians attacking peacekeepers belongs in a thread to itself though.

 

[Pickman's model]

So the madness returns. Did it ever go away? Excited talk of troop capabilities taking on the Russians. Madness.

reports of hands being rubbed with glee cannot be verified

 

[Mark Sloan]

So the madness returns. Did it ever go away? Excited talk of troop capabilities taking on the Russians. Madness.

It never stopped from certain quarters in the media; if you look at the ludicrous headlines from Times Radio and the like, the chronic unrealism has barely missed a beat.

European countries don't have the capability or numbers to police any ceasefire line and even Zelensky has recognised that; he said that it would have to include the US, but Trump seems adamant that that won't happen.

The only country I can think of which has the numbers and which might be acceptable to both sides is Türkiye. However, I doubt the Russians would agree to any Ukrainian forces remaining east of the Dnipro, and heavy weapons would likely need to be at the Vinnytsia line or even further west.

 

[TopCat]

Russia pours cold water on talk of NATO troops guaranteeing any ceasefire.
“

• Russia has rejected the idea of Nato countries sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Maria Zakharova, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said it could cause an “uncontrollable escalation”. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, said on Tuesday that at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would be needed to prevent a new Russian attack after any ceasefire deal.”

Ukraine war briefing: Russians say major oil refinery burning after Ukrainian drone strikes

Trump says Opec should cut oil prices to starve Russia of war funding; Ukraine evacuating children from towns in Kharkiv region. What we know on day 1,066See all our Ukraine war coverage

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Russia pours cold water on talk of NATO troops guaranteeing any ceasefire.
“

• Russia has rejected the idea of Nato countries sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Maria Zakharova, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said it could cause an “uncontrollable escalation”. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, said on Tuesday that at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would be needed to prevent a new Russian attack after any ceasefire deal.”

Ukraine war briefing: Russians say major oil refinery burning after Ukrainian drone strikes

Trump says Opec should cut oil prices to starve Russia of war funding; Ukraine evacuating children from towns in Kharkiv region. What we know on day 1,066See all our Ukraine war coverage

www.theguardian.com

Particularly cruel in the depths of a Ukrainian winter

 

[ska invita]

Russia pours cold water on talk of NATO troops guaranteeing any ceasefire.
“

• Russia has rejected the idea of Nato countries sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Maria Zakharova, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said it could cause an “uncontrollable escalation”. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, said on Tuesday that at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would be needed to prevent a new Russian attack after any ceasefire deal.”

Ukraine war briefing: Russians say major oil refinery burning after Ukrainian drone strikes

Trump says Opec should cut oil prices to starve Russia of war funding; Ukraine evacuating children from towns in Kharkiv region. What we know on day 1,066See all our Ukraine war coverage

www.theguardian.com

I read a thing yesterday that many key European countries - i forget which now, Poland and Gemrany stood out, have ruled out sending troops anyhow
Will Europe put ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine? https://archive.ph/n52Fy
from what I can glean it seems the solution would be non-NATO troops on the border as much as possible, but the deal could still be guaranteed by NATO countries - soldiers on the border are not necessary for that.
NATO troops could still be in Ukraine but more behind the scenes / training etc

 

[Pickman's model]

NATO troops could still be in Ukraine but more behind the scenes / training etc

much like they are now then

 

[The39thStep]

I read a thing yesterday that many key European countries - i forget which now, Poland and Gemrany stood out, have ruled out sending troops anyhow
Will Europe put ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine? https://archive.ph/n52Fy
from what I can glean it seems the solution would be non-NATO troops on the border as much as possible, but the deal could still be guaranteed by NATO countries - soldiers on the border are not necessary for that.
NATO troops could still be in Ukraine but more behind the scenes / training etc

Protection teams at embassies?

 

[Pickman's model]

Protection teams at embassies?

british special forces operating in ukraine (world socialist website) US general confirms UK Special Forces operating in Ukraine so not simply protecting diplomatic missions

 

[TopCat]

Russia has consistently stated they won’t allow Ukraine to join NATO. They ain’t likely to agree to NATO troops anywhere near.
They West and Ukraine are in no position to dictate.

 

[dilute micro]

Russia has consistently stated they won’t allow Ukraine to join NATO. They ain’t likely to agree to NATO troops anywhere near.
They West and Ukraine are in no position to dictate.

Russia is so inconsistent on that NATO troop thing.

 

[DownwardDog]

british special forces operating in ukraine (world socialist website) US general confirms UK Special Forces operating in Ukraine so not simply protecting diplomatic missions

One getting killed would be manageable - 'training accident, etc.' Active duty British forces getting captured and then interviewed on Evening Urgant would be a political firestorm.

 

[Rimbaud]

IDF and hamas just as bad as each other.
British army and the IRA just as bad as each other.
French army and the FLN just as bad as each other
Spanish civil war, POUM just as bad as the fascists.

Elpenor Once said in the Greenland discussion Europe needs to be under a Russian military umbrella for protection against the US, so any of their opinions on Ukraine and can be safely ignored tbh, the bothsidesism is obviously bad faith...

 

[TopCat]

As more die the tills in the US ring out. Kerching!

• Sales of US military equipment to foreign governments in 2024 rose by 29% to a record $318.7bn as countries sought to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine and prepare for major conflicts, the US state department said on Friday. Sales approved in the year included $23bn worth of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, $18.8bn worth of F-15 fighter jets to Israel and $2.5bn worth of M1A2 Abrams tanks to Romania.

Ukraine war briefing: Putin aiming to ‘manipulate’ Trump, Zelenskyy warns

Ukrainian president issues warning after Russia’s leader said he was ‘ready for negotiations’ with US counterpart on the war. What we know on day 1,067

www.theguardian.com

 

[TopCat]

Also from today’s Guardian. Zelenensky warns Trump of being duped as talks get closer.

Ukraine war briefing: Putin aiming to ‘manipulate’ Trump, Zelenskyy warns

Ukrainian president issues warning after Russia’s leader said he was ‘ready for negotiations’ with US counterpart on the war. What we know on day 1,067

www.theguardian.com

 

[Elpenor]

Elpenor Once said in the Greenland discussion Europe needs to be under a Russian military umbrella for protection against the US, so any of their opinions on Ukraine and can be safely ignored tbh, the bothsidesism is obviously bad faith...

i am surprised that you still hold that opinion given what we have seen in the first few days of the Trump regime

 

[Rimbaud]

i am surprised that you still hold that opinion given what we have seen in the first few days of the Trump regime

It's just the degree of bias and clearly emotional Russophilia you have.

The USA is threatening to go fascist and territorial expansionist. Russia is already there, however, and what's more they seem to be two sides of the same coin in many ways.

 

[TopCat]

Clearly emotional. Absurd projection really.

 

[The39thStep]

Tired and emotional

 

[Yossarian]

Putin's attempt to butter up Trump - "You're a very smart man and Joe Biden stole the election from you" - is laying it on so thick that even Trump himself might see through it.

Only thing that surprises me is that Trump hasn't already appeased his far-right supporters by announcing an end to US support for Ukraine

In an interview with Russian state television, Putin praised Trump as a “clever and pragmatic man” who is focused on U.S. interests.

“We always had a business-like, pragmatic but also trusting relationship with the current U.S. president,” Putin said. “I couldn’t disagree with him that if he had been president, if they hadn’t stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in Ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided.”

Putin echoes Trump's claim that conflict in Ukraine could have been avoided had he been in office

Russian President Vladimir Putin has echoed U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim the conflict in Ukraine could have been prevented had he been in the White House in 2022.

apnews.com

I can think of another way the "crisis" that "emerged in Ukraine" could have been avoided...

 

[ska invita]

The USA is threatening to go fascist and territorial expansionist. Russia is already there, however, and what's more they seem to be two sides of the same coin in many ways.

Absolutely true...they're definitely in a symbiotic relationship and have been since....1917!

USAs new threatened territorial claims are not some new mode - this is what the US is and has long been - its imperial, as is Russia.

Europe never really committed to its competing 21st century powerblock status, the EU is a fudge. Calls for an EU army were put down. Rightly. The question over the coming years will be will Europe centralise further or fragment further. If it centralises further all the signs are it will be as an ever more fascistic project.


Thats how it looks to me

 

[The39thStep]

Putin's attempt to butter up Trump - "You're a very smart man and Joe Biden stole the election from you" - is laying it on so thick that even Trump himself might see through it.

Only thing that surprises me is that Trump hasn't already appeased his far-right supporters by announcing an end to US support for Ukraine

In an interview with Russian state television, Putin praised Trump as a “clever and pragmatic man” who is focused on U.S. interests.

“We always had a business-like, pragmatic but also trusting relationship with the current U.S. president,” Putin said. “I couldn’t disagree with him that if he had been president, if they hadn’t stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in Ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided.”

Putin echoes Trump's claim that conflict in Ukraine could have been avoided had he been in office

Russian President Vladimir Putin has echoed U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim the conflict in Ukraine could have been prevented had he been in the White House in 2022.

apnews.com

I can think of another way the "crisis" that "emerged in Ukraine" could have been avoided...

I think Trump wants to be seen as the President that got a deal on the Russian Ukraine war rather than just a capitulation of Ukraine on Russian terms . Hence his loose threat of sanctions .

He’ll want to frame it as he got the US out of the mud , Ukraine out of the mud and even Russia out of the mud . The US could do well out reconstruction in Ukraine , investing in minerals and the buying up of agriculture, and he can leave the other issues about a post war Ukraine to the Europeans .

 

[Rimbaud]

Clearly emotional. Absurd projection really.

If it isn't based on emotional and irrational attachment to Russia based on Soviet nostalgia and knee jerk campism, then I'd love to see an attempt at rationalising a stance of "Russia must defend Europe from American expansionism".

Russia is the most unequal country in Europe apart from Lithuania, Bulgaria and Turkey; political power is concentrated in a narrow oligarchy centred on one man and his mates; it is one of if not the most homophonic and misogynistic countries in Europe; it is the least democratic apart from perhaps its puppet Belarus; has a government which fantasises about being Peter the Great and building an Empire and funds far-right movements and misinformation around Europe; is actively expansionist in Europe and considering Chechnya, intervention in Syria, involvement of Russian mercenaries in massacres in Mali and Central African Republic, the occupation of Georgian territory, and of course the invasion of Ukraine, is probably competing with the USA for civilians directly killed in military action since after the Cold War.

How could any leftist think they should have any role in defending Europe if not for an irrational attachment rooted in Soviet nostalgia?

I don't think I've ever shied away from attempting to take ownership of and rationalise or justify my positions, but it seems most of the people with a clear pro-Russia bias bow out of trying to rationalise it by saying something "both sides are bad" when it is obvious that Elpenor, Topcat and Pickmans Model at least have a preference for Russia and their both sidesism doesn't translate to other conflicts.

 

[MrCurry]

I don't think I've ever shied away from attempting to take ownership of and rationalise or justify my positions, but it seems most of the people with a clear pro-Russia bias bow out of trying to rationalise it by saying something "both sides are bad" when it is obvious that Elpenor, Topcat and Pickmans Model at least have a preference for Russia and their both sidesism doesn't translate to other conflicts.

What you perceive as bias can simply be people being open minded enough to draw their own conclusions without kowtowing to the prevailing group-think.

Better to debate their points and disprove them if they are wrong than to throw around accusations of bias IMHO.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think I've ever shied away from attempting to take ownership of and rationalise or justify my positions, but it seems most of the people with a clear pro-Russia bias bow out of trying to rationalise it by saying something "both sides are bad" when it is obvious that Elpenor, Topcat and Pickmans Model at least have a preference for Russia and their both sidesism doesn't translate to other conflicts.

since you're so keen to attempt to take ownership of, rationalise, and justify your positions I'd like to see you substantiate your claim about me with some examples

 

[Elpenor]

It’s quite telling Rimbaud that you refer to Türkiye by its former name, I can’t imagine it’s ignorance of the change so I assume it is by choice. Do you say Burma instead of Myanmar as well?

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

It’s quite telling Rimbaud that you refer to Türkiye by its former name, I can’t imagine it’s ignorance of the change so I assume it is by choice. Do you say Burma instead of Myanmar as well?

I was talking to a work colleague about this once. He was born and still lived in Bombay. Not Mumbai, Bombay. He was unimpressed by name changes decreed from above by political actors with their own agendas. Certainly not the rulers of Turkey or Burma.

 

[maomao]

Turkey is still the English name of the Republic of Türkiye. The same way it's fine to call the Netherlands Holland. It only matters if you're the UN or The Olympics. The ü sound of Turkish doesn't even exist in the English language.

 

[kabbes]

Turkey is still the English name of the Republic of Türkiye. The same way it's fine to call the Netherlands Holland. It only matters if you're the UN or The Olympics. The ü sound of Turkish doesn't even exist in the English language.

I agree. Places have names in their native language and then other nationalities have their own names for those places. We don’t call Germany “Deutschland”. We don’t call Italy “Italia”. We don’t call Greece “Ελλάδα”. Similarly, we don’t expect people in all those places to refer to the country I’m in as “England”. It’s okay to have your own names for things. There can, of course, be reasons of political and cultural sensitivity towards recognising decolonisation, which mean you do adopt a name change (eg with Sri Lanka). But that doesn’t make it some kind of blanket rule.

 

[maomao]

I agree. Places have names in their native language and then other nationalities have their own names for those places. We don’t call Germany “Deutschland”. We don’t call Italy “Italia”. We don’t call Greece “Ελλάδα”. Similarly, we don’t expect people in all those places to refer to the country I’m in as “England”. It’s okay to have your own names for things. There can, of course, be reasons of political and cultural sensitivity towards recognising decolonisation, which mean you do adopt a name change (eg with Sri Lanka). But that doesn’t make it some kind of blanket rule.

My Scottish mother gets pissed off with the Chinese word for Britain clearly being based on the word for England (there's another word for England) and if she thinks anyone is using it about her shouts the Chinese word for Scotland (which almost no-one even recognises) at them.