Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[J Ed]

So inspired by the behaviour of the liberal commentariat and their hangers on, I thought that 'Actually bigoted liberal' should become a thing

Inspired by a tweet...

 

[SpineyNorman]

No, you've misunderstood. What I said is 'not excusing the above'... Saying all clever people will leave or whatever is just unpleasant. But I was attempting to make a point about their self positioning as a political party of the misunderstood underdog.

Not sure I understand what you're saying - are you saying that the party leadership has deliberately cultivated the image of themselves as the misunderstood underdog (true enough but that's just politicians doing what politicians do, and they've had a massive helping hand from the establishment parties and media, who've gone after them in a way they never do the traditional parties thus reinforcing that image - they'd never have been so successful in cultivating that image if powerful people weren't effectively confirming it by their actions) or are you saying that it's wrong to understand their support as misunderstood and disenfranchised/'underdog'?

 

[frogwoman]

Was it you SpineyNorman who was telling me that ukip were the part with the largest ethnic minority support?

 

[SpineyNorman]

Ditto, but I've also seen others claim they are being snobbish- one exchange ended with an enthusiastic UKIP supporter who is in Hull and delighted that they now have a UKIP counsellor saying that the criticiser of UKIP couldn't possibly understand her concerns as he wasn't looking at losing his job to a foreigner, and he was alright so turning his back on his roots. With more swearing and posturing.

And the above woman's husband has been incandescent about the #whyi'mvotingukip tweets, calling them snobby, stupid and stuck up yesterday. I thought some of them were clever and funny <<shrugs>>

The ones I saw were snobbish, stupid and stuck up tbh

And I think it's true that many of the anti-UKIPers don't understand the concerns of their voters - losing their jobs to foreigners is the UKIP gloss that's put on it but the root problem is insecurity - it's not caused by foreigners IMO but it is there, and the most ardent anti-UKIP types I know - mostly educated, financially secure liberals - really don't understand and don't care.

This is summed up by one of the #whyImnotvotingUKIP tweets I saw yesterday that said something along the lines of 'because I don't blame the fact I'm a failure on foreigners'.

 

[Manter]

Not sure I understand what you're saying - are you saying that the party leadership has deliberately cultivated the image of themselves as the misunderstood underdog (true enough but that's just politicians doing what politicians do, and they've had a massive helping hand from the establishment parties and media, who've gone after them in a way they never do the traditional parties thus reinforcing that image - they'd never have been so successful in cultivating that image if powerful people weren't effectively confirming it by their actions) or are you saying that it's wrong to understand their support as misunderstood and disenfranchised/'underdog'?

The former. Farage is a very, very establishment figure in lots of ways, but has crafted a party that claims to be 'outsiders'. I think it's interesting as it allows them to say increasingly bonkers things and claim that criticism is prejudice. It's a very similar process (from what I see of it, as a layperson who happened to live there then and here now) to what happened in the US as the tea party was developing.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Was it you SpineyNorman who was telling me that ukip were the part with the largest ethnic minority support?

16% - I've seen it on a poll on a thread here somewhere and Farrage mentions it in that lbc interview as well.

They basically took the votes of the Yemeni community from the TUSC candidate in one ward in Sheffield.

 

[frogwoman]

I didn't find some of the pisstakes of that black ukip guy in London that good either.

 

[SpineyNorman]

The former. Farage is a very, very establishment figure in lots of ways, but has crafted a party that claims to be 'outsiders'. I think it's interesting as it allows them to say increasingly bonkers things and claim that criticism is prejudice. It's a very similar process (from what I see of it, as a layperson who happened to live there then and here now) to what happened in the US as the tea party was developing.

Fair enough - agree with that. But I think it's really important to keep in mind the distinction between the leadership and the support, especially the 'soft' support.

 

[Manter]

The ones I saw were snobbish, stupid and stuck up tbh

And I think it's true that many of the anti-UKIPers don't understand the concerns of their voters - losing their jobs to foreigners is the UKIP gloss that's put on it but the root problem is insecurity - it's not caused by foreigners IMO but it is there, and the most ardent anti-UKIP types I know - mostly educated, financially secure liberals - really don't understand and don't care.

This is summed up by one of the #whyImnotvotingUKIP tweets I saw yesterday that said something along the lines of 'because I don't blame the fact I'm a failure on foreigners'.

I'm not sure who their voters are. Every new story seems to focus a different demographic- disaffected Tory Essex man, labour heartland voters who haven't seen an economic recovery yet, the working class who feel marginalised and insecure, upper middle Home Counties types who've never liked foreigners and think the EU is after sterling.... They are a bit vague on actual policies and positions which makes it difficult IMO to characterise who the voters are, beyond people who are against how things are now. Almost the definition of a protest vote.

 

[Manter]

Fair enough - agree with that. But I think it's really important to keep in mind the distinction between the leadership and the support, especially the 'soft' support.

In what way do you mean?

 

[FridgeMagnet]

The former. Farage is a very, very establishment figure in lots of ways, but has crafted a party that claims to be 'outsiders'. I think it's interesting as it allows them to say increasingly bonkers things and claim that criticism is prejudice. It's a very similar process (from what I see of it, as a layperson who happened to live there then and here now) to what happened in the US as the tea party was developing.

Oh yes, it's very similar - well, slightly different in that the TP came out of the collapse of mainstream Republicanism which already had rhetoric about critics being the out of touch liberal elite, whereas that's something more specifically adopted by UKIP I would say. But it's constantly what they mean. That statement on Today about London voters might have been utterly fucked up in delivery but it was meant to imply that. (Trust HnH to mangle even a response to that )

 

[Manter]

Oh yes, it's very similar - well, slightly different in that the TP came out of the collapse of mainstream Republicanism which already had rhetoric about critics being the out of touch liberal elite, whereas that's something more specifically adopted by UKIP I would say. But it's constantly what they mean. That statement on Today about London voters might have been utterly fucked up in delivery but it was meant to imply that. (Trust HnH to mangle even a response to that )

I was about to say there was less religion in this incarnation, but thinking about it we've had gays/flooding/wrath of god, and the insane guy on R4 was going on about God too. Wonder if it will become a theme.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I was about to say there was less religion in this incarnation, but thinking about it we've had gays/flooding/wrath of god, and the insane guy on R4 was going on about God too. Wonder if it will become a theme.

I don't think so, that's more specifically American. (Gove's antics have surprised quite a few Americans I've told about them though.)

 

[Manter]

I don't think so, that's more specifically American. (Gove's antics have surprised quite a few Americans I've told about them though.)

The religious schools?

 

[FridgeMagnet]

The religious schools?

The Bible-with-a-foreword thing.

 

[Manter]

The Bible-with-a-foreword thing.

Oh, missed that. <<goes off to google>>

E2a good lord

 

[SpineyNorman]

In what way do you mean?

For the leadership the image of misunderstood underdog is, as you say, cultivated (though establishment liberals did much of Farage's work for him there). But for much of their 'soft' support - certainly in the working class northern cities and towns I'm familiar with - the self-image as disenfranchised, left behind, concerns dismissed by traditional political parties and mainstream civil society - didn't need to be cultivated.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

For the leadership the image of misunderstood underdog is, as you say, cultivated (though establishment liberals did much of Farage's work for him there). But for much of their 'soft' support - certainly in the working class northern cities and towns I'm familiar with - the self-image as disenfranchised, left behind, concerns dismissed by traditional political parties and mainstream civil society - didn't need to be cultivated.

That sort of self-image didn't need to be "cultivated" certainly, mostly because it's true. It doesn't necessarily turn into support for UKIP or parties with similar policies. I would say that has to be cultivated, and it's not just UKIP who do it by any means.

 

[Manter]

For the leadership the image of misunderstood underdog is, as you say, cultivated (though establishment liberals did much of Farage's work for him there). But for much of their 'soft' support - certainly in the working class northern cities and towns I'm familiar with - the self-image as disenfranchised, left behind, concerns dismissed by traditional political parties and mainstream civil society - didn't need to be cultivated.

Ahha, understand. But wonder how many of those people voted for them- or voted at all tbh. As I said, I'm unclear about who their supporters are- the people I know who voted for them are not marginalised and disenfranchised.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I'm not sure who their voters are. Every new story seems to focus a different demographic- disaffected Tory Essex man, labour heartland voters who haven't seen an economic recovery yet, the working class who feel marginalised and insecure, upper middle Home Counties types who've never liked foreigners and think the EU is after sterling.... They are a bit vague on actual policies and positions which makes it difficult IMO to characterise who the voters are, beyond people who are against how things are now. Almost the definition of a protest vote.

In Sheffield and the surrounding towns, if the response we've had on campaign stalls and canvassing is anything to go by, it's overwhelmingly working class traditional labour. And I'm convinced that it's this kind of vote, more than any other, is responsible for their rise in electoral fortunes - they've represented the other types you listed for a while now - it might have grown a bit recently but there's been no fundamental change. The disenfranchised working class element of their vote appears to me to be almost entirely new.

So while it's true that UKIP's vote comes from all the different sections of society you've listed, their recent growth into an electoral force that nobody can ignore is down predominantly to working class voters.

The polling seems to back this up too, though I don't have it to hand but it is all on here somewhere, I think on this very thread.

 

[Manter]

In Sheffield and the surrounding towns, if the response we've had on campaign stalls and canvassing is anything to go by, it's overwhelmingly working class traditional labour. And I'm convinced that it's this kind of vote, more than any other, is responsible for their rise in electoral fortunes - they've represented the other types you listed for a while now - it might have grown a bit recently but there's been no fundamental change. The disenfranchised working class element of their vote appears to me to be almost entirely new.

So while it's true that UKIP's vote comes from all the different sections of society you've listed, their recent growth into an electoral force that nobody can ignore is down predominantly to working class voters.

The polling seems to back this up too, though I don't have it to hand but it is all on here somewhere, I think on this very thread.

Thx, interesting. Not going to read 97 pages on the off chance I find it though

 

[SpineyNorman]

That sort of self-image didn't need to be "cultivated" certainly, mostly because it's true. It doesn't necessarily turn into support for UKIP or parties with similar policies. I would say that has to be cultivated, and it's not just UKIP who do it by any means.

I agree - the point I was (probably clumsily) making is precisely that it doesn't need to be cultivated because it's true. There's plenty of liberal anti-UKIPers who don't believe this - who believe it's 'failure' rather than being let down, that they really should just stop moaning cos they're mostly privileged white males and the like.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Thx, interesting. Not going to read 97 pages on the off chance I find it though

I don't blame you

 

[treelover]

Cameron , says he is going to respond to UKIP advances by amongst other things 'c4racking down on welfare'

I'm not sure that was raised by UKIP that much, though I'm sure they will now.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I agree - the point I was (probably clumsily) making is precisely that it doesn't need to be cultivated because it's true. There's plenty of liberal anti-UKIPers who don't believe this - who believe it's 'failure' rather than being let down, that they really should just stop moaning cos they're mostly privileged white males and the like.

I'm sure there are, it's the "immigration" "debate" writ large in a lot of cases. The other thing is that a lot of the said liberal anti-UKIPers aren't really all that concerned about racism either - there's plenty of acceptable racism around, just differently styled.

The frustrating thing for me is that none of this should be connected to immigration at all, and yet you can't get away from it apparently. The basic idea that it's to blame for situations X Y Z needs to be challenged but doing so is just shouting into the BBC wind.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I'm sure there are, it's the "immigration" "debate" writ large in a lot of cases. The other thing is that a lot of the said liberal anti-UKIPers aren't really all that concerned about racism either - there's plenty of acceptable racism around, just differently styled.

The frustrating thing for me is that none of this should be connected to immigration at all, and yet you can't get away from it apparently. The basic idea that it's to blame for situations X Y Z needs to be challenged but doing so is just shouting into the BBC wind.

This is gonna sound like lefty abc dogmatism but I honestly think the only solution is to try and get people organised around concrete (preferrably class) issues and raise their awareness through struggle. To effectively challenge these kinds of ideas you've got to win people's trust and show you're not like the liberals who don't give a shit and this is the best way I know of doing it - we had a fair bit of success with this in bedroom tax campaigns, especially in Barnsley.

 

[J Ed]

The frustrating thing for me is that none of this should be connected to immigration at all, and yet you can't get away from it apparently. The basic idea that it's to blame for situations X Y Z needs to be challenged but doing so is just shouting into the BBC wind.

All of these issues are now racialised but UKIP has very little responsibility for that.

 

[treelover]

16% - I've seen it on a poll on a thread here somewhere and Farrage mentions it in that lbc interview as well.

They basically took the votes of the Yemeni community from the TUSC candidate in one ward in Sheffield.

The Yemeni community are generally left wing, some came from Aden(now Yemen) after the insurgency in the 60's.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Cameron , says he is going to respond to UKIP advances by amongst other things 'c4racking down on welfare'

I'm not sure that was raised by UKIP that much, though I'm sure they will now.

Interesting point - the only stuff I've seen from them on welfare has been claiming to defend benefits, though I'm sure they say the opposite if they think that's what the voters in an area want to hear. I think if they're smart they'll try and avoid taking an unambiguous position on this kind of question for as long as possible cos if they are drawn into a battle of who's toughest on welfare they're bound to lose part of the support that's looking for social protections.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

All of these issues are now racialised but UKIP has very little responsibility for that.

Yes, lots of parties have been very keen to rephrase economic issues as racial ones and then call their opponents racist. And you know their opponents may well be racist - UKIP is - because those opponents appear on that basis. Meanwhile nothing gets better.