Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[Dogsauce]

Since when has signing a petition been 'Direct Action' ??

 

[SpackleFrog]

Well I'm unsure why you believe that there will be a referendum in the nest parliament, I think it most unlikely. All the major parties are committed to the EU and I don't think any of them want to go to a referendum.

Why would the EU care if UKIP are voted in, they weren't bothered when France, Holland and Ireland voted no. They know that all the major UK parties are committed to the EU are will not leave.

Well as I've said above I don't think it will ever happen but I think it's lunatic nonsense to say that the EU wouldn't care about the UK leaving. It would cause huge damage for their project, how would they stop Greece for example breaking off.

The Tories have offered a referendum in 2018. The Lib Dems say they want a referendum the next time there is any "fundamental" change in the UK's relationship with the EU. In the next year Labour will have to deal with people saying that voting Labour takes away the option of a referendum. Meanwhile the long term stability of the EU isn't exactly guaranteed. I wouldn't write anything off.

 

[treelover]

VP said
It's certainly the case that Die Linke form a more cohesive broad left opposition in the German Lande than anything we have here, but that's partly to do with German local and regional democracy being more open to "change from below" than our own farcical system.

Yes, of course they have more democratic options with the federalised Lande system, but the left there basically unified, it still hasn't here.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Since when has signing a petition been 'Direct Action' ??

WRT to Hugh F-W, he didn't just sign the petition, IIRC, he organised it.
On the subject of petition-signing being seen by activism, I've long been amazed by people who class doing that (especially in an age of online petitions) as "activism". At best it's civic participation.

 

[gosub]

The Tories have offered a referendum in 2018. The Lib Dems say they want a referendum the next time there is any "fundamental" change in the UK's relationship with the EU. In the next year Labour will have to deal with people saying that voting Labour takes away the option of a referendum. Meanwhile the long term stability of the EU isn't exactly guaranteed. I wouldn't write anything off.

Nope. Labour said they will have a referendum if there is a new treaty (and it looks like there will be). Choice would be accept new treaty/ out of EU. Tories said 2017 having renegotiated (IN/OUT)(you can't actually renegotiate in that time frame but still, and the Lib Dems always say they are favour then bottle it when it comes to a Parlimentary vote.

 

[butchersapron]

Labour have said they will hold a referendum if any new treaty gave significant further powers to the EU - not just if there is a new treaty. And they do not expect to see any such power-granting treaty to materialise. They effectively are anti-referendum.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Yes, of course they have more democratic options with the federalised Lande system, but the left there basically unified, it still hasn't here.

The German left isn't "basically unified". It is, however, more fluid and less dogmatic in terms of seeing the good sense in combining forces for a "greater good".

 

[kebabking]

Nope. Labour said they will have a referendum if there is a new treaty...

thats what labour say now, i'm interested in what they say in the 8 weeks leading up to the election in 2015 and if - as appears to be the concensus - UKIP do very well in the popular vote today, i expect to see Labour attempt to hoover up some UKIP votes by being a bit more strident on the EU.

regardless of how well UKIP do in the Euro's and council elections, i don't think large numbers of people are going to vote for them in the GE - they are a one-trick-pony and pretty much everyone knows it - the impact that UKIP voters will have in the 2015 GE is not in voting for UKIP, but in voting for the traditional party that best manages to steal UKIP's clothes.

 

[butchersapron]

thats what labour say now, i'm interested in what they say in the 8 weeks leading up to the election in 2015 and if - as appears to be the concensus - UKIP do very well in the popular vote today, i expect to see Labour attempt to hoover up some UKIP votes by being a bit more strident on the EU.

regardless of how well UKIP do in the Euro's and council elections, i don't think large numbers of people are going to vote for them in the GE - they are a one-trick-pony and pretty much everyone knows it - the impact that UKIP voters will have in the 2015 GE is not in voting for UKIP, but in voting for the traditional party that best manages to steal UKIP's clothes.

UKIP supporters have consistently indicated that the eu is not their main concern. Why insist that it is - and further, that it's their only real concern?

 

[gosub]

If there is a change in Labour's position, is more likely to be to counter losing votes to UKIP. A vote on a new treaty is on statute books anyway. But I do remember Lisbon

 

[butchersapron]

The thing on the statute books is not a referendum on in/out of eu - but for/against any new treaty/granting of further powers.

 

[kebabking]

UKIP supporters have consistently indicated that the eu is not their main concern. Why insist that it is - and further, that it's their only real concern?

i'm not, exactly the opposite in fact - the 'kippers are obsessed/concerned with immigration, their beef with the EU is that it facilitates immigration. once both major parties agree to a referendum on the EU they will become much more equal in the eyes of the 'kippers with one offering a pro-EU, neoliberal agenda, and the other offering a neoliberal, pro-EU agenda - it becomes a fair fight between the two where individual 'kippers will decide whether to vote labour or tory on the other, non-immigration/EU issues.

 

[butchersapron]

i'm not, exactly the opposite in fact - the 'kippers are obsessed/concerned with immigration, their beef with the EU is that it facilitates immigration. once both major parties agree to a referendum on the EU they will become much more equal in the eyes of the 'kippers with one offering a pro-EU, neoliberal agenda, and the other offering a neoliberal, pro-EU agenda - it becomes a fair fight between the two where individual 'kippers will decide whether to vote labour or tory on the other, non-immigration/EU issues.

Well, calling hem a one trick pony then saying they're monomaniacal about immigration wouldn't suggest you think they have other concerns! Why would such a strong obsession dissipate before the general election - esp if one party is then seen as being soft on their obsession? That would only bring it to the forefront of these peoples voting behaviour/justification all over again i would think. Anyway, i can't see labour budging from their current anti-referendum with a anti-referendum content position. They might stress the former a bit more strongly, but i think that would be about all.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/22/ukip-ballot-paper-elections_n_5370711.html?ref=topbar

 

[treelover]

My colleague Helen Pidd has sent me this about Ukip prospects in the north of England.
In the north, the biggest Labour losses tonight could come in South Yorkshire, where Ukip is confident of gaining at least four and perhaps as many as seven of the 21 seats up for grabs on Rotherham council, which would make them the official opposition. The anti-EU party currently has just one seat on the Labour-run council, following a byelection last year.
Some big Labour trees could be felled: the cabinet member Gerald Smith, a councillor since 1979, is looking shaky in Holderness; and controversial deputy leader Jahangir Akhtar in Rotherham Westcould be at risk not just from Ukip but a strong local candidate from George Galloway's Respect party. Other wards that look strong for Ukip, according to the local party's vice chair, John Wilkinson, include Rawmarsh (which has the Ukip incumbent), Silverwood, Hellaby (where the Ukip candidate is a Tory defector), Valley, Rotherham East, Maltby and Anston & Woodsetts.
In Sunderland, Ukip is hopeful of getting its first directly elected councillor in the north-east (they have a few siting councillors in the region who have defected from elsewhere).

From guardian update, I think she may be right about Rotherham, so sad, but it seems to be happening across the EU in former industrial areas: the nationalists/populists are gaining seats

 

[laptop]

their beef with the EU is that it facilitates immigration

I think you'll find that that's just the tactical angle for today's election.

Not least to expunge the memory of the barking manifesto for the last; but also to conceal the other neoliberal policies.

 

[weepiper]

 

[redsquirrel]

Labour have said they will hold a referendum if any new treaty gave significant further powers to the EU - not just if there is a new treaty. And they do not expect to see any such power-granting treaty to materialise. They effectively are anti-referendum.

Precisely, all three parties will use that wording as a get out clause (when in gov, or course what they say in opposition will be different).

 

[Treacle Toes]

Panic as UKIP discover that ‘UKIP’ is Bulgarian for ‘Welcome!’

British women for British workers!

There have been several reports of UKIP signs being vandalised around Southport this week. The shocking truth, however, is that the UKIP supporters themselves have been defacing their own campaign boards.

Apparently, an intern at UKIP’s campaign headquarters was using Google Translate to find slogans to tell foreigners to ‘f*ck off home’ in 18 languages when she noticed that ‘ukip’ was actually a Bulgarian word meaning ‘welcome!’

- See more at: http://southporttimes.co.uk/?p=106#sthash.2TEHXVdU.dpuf

http://southporttimes.co.uk/?p=106

Que diablos es esto?

 

[goldenecitrone]

Meanwhile, over in Germany, the Alternative fur Deutschland party are singing a new tune on gays, gender equality and immigrants. But not all their supporters are happy.

http://www.spiegel.de/international...s-softer-tone-on-gays-and-women-a-971131.html

Anger In the Party Base

But this week's moves have also angered the party base. For many in the party, tolerance towards gays and lesbians and foreigners is precisely the kind of political correctness that drove them away from the country's established mainstream parties. Party chief Lucke's in-box has been filled with protest mails. "I joined AFD because of positive statements made about family values," wrote Hermann S. of Bad Säckingen near the Swiss border. If there really is a working group for gay and lesbian issues, he wrote, "then I would announce my withdrawal from the party as a Christian on the basis of my conscience."


A male member of AFD from the state of Saarland wrote that he found it "perverse to make such aberrances socially acceptable." More radical elements of AFD also find the party's watered down tone on women's issues to be "bad tricks." Members have disparaged the initiators of the Erna women's network as "gender lunatics" and warned against "turning AFD into a female organization with feminist goals behind men's backs."

 

[J Ed]

From a Michael Gove advisor:

It would be nice to say same old classist Tory bigots but his sentiment is absolutely indistinguishable from an awful lot of nasty comments about accent, intelligence, educational attainment, clothes and mental health issues from peole on the left and centre. Proof positive of that: the Guardian is reporting the comments as an intelligent insight and not an incredibly bigoted comment.

 

[brogdale]

From a Michael Gove advisor:

It would be nice to say same old classist Tory bigots but his sentiment is absolutely indistinguishable from an awful lot of nasty comments about accent, intelligence, educational attainment, clothes and mental health issues from peole on the left and centre. Proof positive of that: the Guardian is reporting the comments as an intelligent insight and not an incredibly bigoted comment.

Exactly.
There are undoubtedly geographical correlations between UKIP support and low levels of educational qualification, more aged demographics and higher densities of EU in-migration, but to ascribe direct causation is tantamount to declaring that poverty is worse in poorer areas. It is interesting to see the political elite struggle to explain expressions of working class disaffection.

 

[The39thStep]

Keenan Malik makes a decent attempt at analysis but his conclusion for a way toward is limp

 

[The39thStep]

From a Michael Gove advisor:

It would be nice to say same old classist Tory bigots but his sentiment is absolutely indistinguishable from an awful lot of nasty comments about accent, intelligence, educational attainment, clothes and mental health issues from peole on the left and centre. Proof positive of that: the Guardian is reporting the comments as an intelligent insight and not an incredibly bigoted comment.

Sick and tired of 'education is the answer' anti fascism/ anti UKIP brigade

 

[brogdale]

Why are they not gaining any purchase in GL...in their own words....

The results so far show little break-through in London, with the party losing one seat in Richmond and three in Merton, including that ofSuzanne Evans - the posh, eloquent ex-Tory who has done stints on Question Time. Why did she lose? In her words:

It’s because London is its own person, if you like - its own body, its own individual character - and it’s very different from the rest of the country. Look at the social demographic - you have lots of the sort of metropolitan elite who, I think, cannot really understand the heartache and the pain that many people around the country are feeling.

Merton.

Nothing there about folk who've lived in multi-cultural communities all their lives being immune to populist 'dog-whistles'.

 

[skyscraper101]

Winston McKenzie looks suitably bonkers

 

[killer b]

Keenan Malik makes a decent attempt at analysis but his conclusion for a way toward is limp

Yeah, I thought that too. Not sure if I've seen any non-limp ways forward proposed anywhere mind.

 

[Favelado]

Winston McKenzie looks suitably bonkers

I just had a look and he signs off most of his tweets CHAMP.

LOL

e2a "
Winston McKenzie ‏@WinstonMcK 14 de may.
@AnishUKIP Too right.@WinstonMcK 4 Mayor.I'll float like a butterfly & sting like a bee.I'll eliminate the fallacies & create good policies."

 

[frogwoman]

From a Michael Gove advisor:

It would be nice to say same old classist Tory bigots but his sentiment is absolutely indistinguishable from an awful lot of nasty comments about accent, intelligence, educational attainment, clothes and mental health issues from peole on the left and centre. Proof positive of that: the Guardian is reporting the comments as an intelligent insight and not an incredibly bigoted comment.

ffs

 

[girasol]

I just read this, goes with this thread... (me posting it doesn't mean I support Ukip btw, I don't!)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...t-theyre-damning-millions-decent-Britons.html