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Ukip - why are they gaining support?

Die Linke, made up of former east German communists and disaffected social democrats, is now the main opposition in Germany's European election, here we have TUSC and Left Unity, will we ever have an effective non LP parliamentary left?
 
Yes, to overtake the greens - the greens on 10%. Not to be the the main opposition. The only way you can come up with that scenario is by lumping 80+% of the vote into non-opposition and bundling the greens into that opposition. We need accurate maps here.

(And i bet you'd be moaning about the dutch socialists maoist past as well if you only know about it)

Actually, you just c&Ped that guardian article with no link or attribution in your post i was replying to.
 
Has this been posted yet?

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20 years ago, maybe, but some parties (even the 3 mainstream parties!) don't have enough local activists in some areas to reliably ensure that leaflets get delivered, so everyone farms it out to delivery agencies.

You might expect this happens where a party is hopelessly off its turf but Labour have to pay people to deliver in Lambeth ffs; that's a working class inner London borough where they dominate the council and they don't have enough members to deliver their stuff.
 
Has this been posted yet?

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I got that leaflet. According to the labour office (I rang the number on the leaflet) yups actually said this, which I don't believe. I asked them about their policy and was just pointed to the job guarantee scheme. They vote couldn't explain how it works.

It seems to me labour are tying to position themselves oddly as more right -or centrist as perhaps they see it - than UK IP. Ending a requirement to look for work is a fringe policy to most people.
 
this was posted on a local forum by a UKIP candidate, if its true, then I reckon the LP have even more difficulties in the future and the unreconstructed left are not seen as option by this part of the constituency.

btw, I remember canvassing for the Socialist Alliance in the 2001 elections, the same thing happened to us, hundreds of people came up to us, desperate to be heard/helped, the SA(basically the SWP component) promised all sorts of help, it never came and the SA vote was derisory even though we had a great candidate.
it is true - particularly the Yemeni community - I've heard it (indirectly) from people canvassing for tusc. they're concerned cos recently a lot of eastern Europeans have been moving in and theyrr worried about resources being stretched. Maxine expecting to lose votes.
 
While we've seen the occasional ward councillor canvassing over the last 15 years, we've only been canvassed once during a G.E. and we're not a "bad" estate by any means.
While I don't agree that "the left" per se are "afraid" of working class estates, I do think that some (especially middle class) activists believe that they'll be challenged more readily on the estates, and also assume that estates are either full of "tribal Labour voters", or of people who won't vote full-stop, so don't stir their arses.
I also absolutely agree that the non-Labour left default to the hoary old "vote Labour with no illusions" schtick far too often, but not purely on the basis of not wanting to admit how useless they are. It's also because it preserves the status quo that even our most revolutionary organised elements of the left feel comfortable with.

I was in a sullen mood the other night so may have indulged in some hyperbole, yours is a more serious analysis. I guess it depends on what parts of the left you're talking about - it just strikes me I know a lot of supposed revolutionary socialists who I see on demo's and in meetings who have literally never gone and done a campaign stall or knocked doors on an estate - any estate, I'm not talking about rough ones. A lot of that as you say is that they think they'll be challenged (its also that some just think thats "boring") but perhaps more by people they assume to be racist more than anything else. Even if you can get them out now and again, they'll say things like "Don't knock that door, there's an England sticker in the bedroom window, they probably vote BNP".
 
it is true - particularly the Yemeni community - I've heard it (indirectly) from people canvassing for tusc. they're concerned cos recently a lot of eastern Europeans have been moving in and theyrr worried about resources being stretched. Maxine expecting to lose votes.

I've met a few asian voters who are/were intending to vote UKIP. I think its easier for us to talk them round than Labour but you can't physically speak to enough to make much difference.
 
OK political Urbs, a quandry that i could use some help with....

being a traditional Brit, i view the European parliament as an expensive talking shop - lots of hot air, lots of moving cardboard boxes around, but bugger all impact on the lives of all at Chez Kebabking - and therefore is not important to me who sits there. however, i'm aware that who sits there has symbolic value, and that elections for it are good weather vanes as to public feeling etc..

so, as someone who wants the UK to remain in the EU, and believes that Labour will eventually promise to hold a referendum in the next parliament - so that however wins the 2015 election there will be a referendum on EU membership - i'm considering voting for UKIP in the European elections today.

i'll explain my thinking, and i'd welcome your critique.

by voting UKIP i signal to the wider EU that there is a problem with how the UK views the EU, that voting UKIP means that problem is profound, and that in order for the UK to remain in the EU, more pro-EU UK politicians need to be able to show the UK electorate at the referendum that the EU has listened to the concerns and has come up with some serious reforms/changes in response.

in effect, that by voting UKIP, i strengthen the negotiating hand of whoever forms the next government and concentrate the minds of the wider EU, meaning changes to the EU become more likely, meaning that in 2017/18 the UK electorate is more likely to vote to remain within the EU rather than leave.

is my logic broadly correct?

(i'm aware that UKIP is a very nasty party with which i share pretty much no political values, i'm aware that a large UKIP vote is likely to diminish how others view the UK, and i'm aware that a large UKIP vote in England might well have an impact on how Scotland sees itself with regards to the independance debate - i'm also aware that UKIP MEP's tend to be utterly useless, but spectacularly expensive..)
 
TBH I'm not so sure how much of a shit the rest of the EU will give about the prospect of the UK leaving - they're already semi-detached anyway. That the country is voting in large numbers for an anti-EU party might just make them give even less of a shit.
 
OK political Urbs, a quandry that i could use some help with....

by voting UKIP i signal to the wider EU that there is a problem with how the UK views the EU, that voting UKIP means that problem is profound, and that in order for the UK to remain in the EU, more pro-EU UK politicians need to be able to show the UK electorate at the referendum that the EU has listened to the concerns and has come up with some serious reforms/changes in response.

How do you think the UK views the EU? What changes do you think they can or will make to accommodate those views? The trad tory element within UKIP will be keen to see an end to the social chapter and environmental stuff - things they see as a burden to business and red tape. To some extent focusing on immigration is a trojan horse for this kind of thing. How the public view things is different - I'm sure it's a bit more sophisticated than straight bananas and job-stealing benefit snaffling immigrants, but are their concerns matched by the party's agenda? Does relentlessly focusing on Europe let all the neo libs and bankers off the hook, or are they part of the same thing?
 
and believes that Labour will eventually promise to hold a referendum in the next parliament

Is this really a sure thing? Given that The Rise of the Kippers isn't really to do with the EU but more of a general opportunity to troll the established parties whom everyone now detests. Like when people decided to get RATM to Xmas number one to annoy Simon Cowell.
 
OK political Urbs, a quandry that i could use some help with....

being a traditional Brit, i view the European parliament as an expensive talking shop - lots of hot air, lots of moving cardboard boxes around, but bugger all impact on the lives of all at Chez Kebabking - and therefore is not important to me wh
being a traditional Brit, i view the European parliament as an expensive talking shop - lots of hot air, lots of moving cardboard boxes around, but bugger all impact on the lives of all at Chez Kebabking - and therefore is not important to me who sits there. however, i'm aware that who sits there has symbolic value, and that elections for it are good weather vanes as to public feeling etc..

so, as someone who wants the UK to remain in the EU, and believes that Labour will eventually promise to hold a referendum in the next parliament - so that however wins the 2015 election there will be a referendum on EU membership - i'm considering voting for UKIP in the European elections today.
Well I'm unsure why you believe that there will be a referendum in the nest parliament, I think it most unlikely. All the major parties are committed to the EU and I don't think any of them want to go to a referendum.

by voting UKIP i signal to the wider EU that there is a problem with how the UK views the EU, that voting UKIP means that problem is profound, and that in order for the UK to remain in the EU, more pro-EU UK politicians need to be able to show the UK electorate at the referendum that the EU has listened to the concerns and has come up with some serious reforms/changes in response.

in effect, that by voting UKIP, i strengthen the negotiating hand of whoever forms the next government and concentrate the minds of the wider EU, meaning changes to the EU become more likely, meaning that in 2017/18 the UK electorate is more likely to vote to remain within the EU rather than leave.

is my logic broadly correct?
Why would the EU care if UKIP are voted in, they weren't bothered when France, Holland and Ireland voted no. They know that all the major UK parties are committed to the EU are will not leave.

TBH I'm not so sure how much of a shit the rest of the EU will give about the prospect of the UK leaving - they're already semi-detached anyway.
Well as I've said above I don't think it will ever happen but I think it's lunatic nonsense to say that the EU wouldn't care about the UK leaving. It would cause huge damage for their project, how would they stop Greece for example breaking off.
 
You might expect this happens where a party is hopelessly off its turf but Labour have to pay people to deliver in Lambeth ffs; that's a working class inner London borough where they dominate the council and they don't have enough members to deliver their stuff.

I know. When I belonged to Streatham CLP in the late '80s/early '90s, there were enough activists to get the entire constituency leafleted in 2-3 evenings. Same with canvassing. Now, the CLP is mostly councillors and an ageing core of activists.
No-one wants to put the effort in for a party that gives them no voice, and that's what Labour now is - a party that isn't constitutionally-required to listen to the membership anymore.
 
Die Linke, made up of former east German communists and disaffected social democrats, is now the main opposition in Germany's European election, here we have TUSC and Left Unity, will we ever have an effective non LP parliamentary left?

Do yourself a favour, and learn about the German political system before making direct comparisons. Germany has a "leftish" opposition in part due to their federal status. It makes political power more immediate, and makes politicians more accountable. It's a lot different to what we have here.
 
Oh fuck. I wish I'd seen that after I had voted. Much as I hate Farage and UKIP - that comparison is casting him in a favorable light. When I get to the voting booth I'm bound to think of that mop-topped twat and his blue stripey apron and subconsciously think "That Farage isn't such a bad old stick after all X'
 
are you stupid as well as mental?

It's certainly the case that Die Linke form a more cohesive broad left opposition in the German Lande than anything we have here, but that's partly to do with German local and regional democracy being more open to "change from below" than our own farcical system.
 
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