Miranda Yardley
Willing Warrior.
As I'm sure you know, the studies on desistance have been widely criticised for including children who would not meet the threshold for gender dysphoria, and some of the studies Cantor references were not even looking for that but were focussed on feminine or effeminate boys. He also ignores the follow up work done on the larger study which found:
Quoting from Cantor's piece:
This is not a matter of scientists disagreeing with one another over relative strengths and weaknesses across a set of conflicting reports. The disagreement is not even some people advocating for one set of studies with other people advocating for different set of studies: Rather, activists are rejecting the unanimous conclusion of every single study ever conducted on the question in favour of a conclusion supported by not one.
Importantly, these results should not be exaggerated in the other direction either: The correct answer is neither 0% nor 100%. Although the majority of transgender kids desist, it is not a large majority. A very substantial proportion do indeed want to transition as they get older, and we need to ensure they receive the support they will need. Despite loud, confident protestations of extremists, the science shows very clearly and very consistently that we cannot take either outcome for granted.