Tory Leadership contest 2022

[Wilf]

Good news for Badenoch, if she could only get through today's vote (which she almost certainly won't). She beats all the others in a head to head of members:

Truss, Mordaunt, and Badenoch all in a virtual tie for next leader among Conservative members | YouGov

No good news for Rishi Sunak

yougov.co.uk

Interesting that there hasn't been a late swing of MPs towards her. Ideally of course, I'd prefer another kind of swing for tory MPs.

 

[belboid]

Badenoch 59
Mordaunt 92
Sunak 118
Truss 86

1 spoiled

 

[belboid]

That's 15 up for Truss, I'm guessing there was a swing from Badenoch voters to Truss, I find it hard to believe that half of Tugendhat's voters swing that way

 

[cupid_stunt]

That's 15 up for Truss, I'm guessing there was a swing from Badenoch voters to Truss, I find it hard to believe that half of Tugendhat's voters swing that way

Badenoch gained one vote.

 

[Elpenor]

Doing the maths the right of the Tory party will chuck Mordaunt out who gained only 10 votes from the Tugendhat block

 

[ruffneck23]

Badenoch 59
Mordaunt 92
Sunak 118
Truss 86

1 spoiled

I hope the spoilt one said, 'you're all a bunch of fuckers.'

 

[killer b]

When's the next vote? reckon there's a decent chance of it being Truss vs Mordant on those numbers

 

[Kaka Tim]

looks like truss vs sunak then - assuming enoch's votes go to her as the right's standard bearer. Which means Liz Truss will be pm. Utterly baffling. And a absolute gift to labour. Very relived that badenoch is out.

 

[killer b]

When's the next vote? reckon there's a decent chance of it being Truss vs Mordant on those numbers

actually no, my maths is shit.

 

[Wilf]

I hope the spoilt one said, 'you're all a bunch of fuckers.'

It was probably johnson, too pissed to get his cross in the square.

 

[bluescreen]

When's the next vote? reckon there's a decent chance of it being Truss vs Mordant on those numbers

There'll be a lot of tactical voting though, a lot of 'anyone but X' manoeuvring, so absolutely no guarantee that they'll keep all the votes they won in the last round. It's a secret ballot so voters can lie about their intentions.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

When's the next vote? reckon there's a decent chance of it being Truss vs Mordant on those numbers

Assuming Johnson continues not to vote and the bloke who lost the whip continues not to have the whip, Sunak only needs one more vote, I think.

Maybe Johnson will vote next time?

 

[Wilf]

actually no, my maths is shit.

But not impossible he might end up 2nd. Can't be arsed looking back at previous rounds, but his numbers are only creeping up.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But not impossible he might end up 2nd. Can't be arsed looking back at previous rounds, but his numbers are only creeping up.

The magic number is 120 to be guaranteed top 2, or 119 if certain people don't vote.

But votes can go down as well as up, as we have seen.

 

[Wilf]

Anyway, when this goes to the members, sunak will have lost the heir apparent title and will have to get down in the dirt and fight with whichever loon he ends up against.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

Could it be that Sunak wins as he's the richest contender?

 

[JimW]

Liz Truss has been a LibDem loyalist the whole time and only comes across as animatronic due to the mental strain of being a sleeper agent nearing her goal.

 

[Wilf]

It's a fair assumption that most of Badenoch's votes will go to Mordor or truss. Beyond that, the key issue is whether there's a significant shift between these 2. Not sure there is, so... fuck knows. We are back at sunak v truss/mordor.

 

[MickiQ]

I hope the spoilt one said, 'you're all a bunch of fuckers.'

That was Boris Johnson, probably wrote his own name in

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Looking at the numbers, it would take a massive fluke for Sunak not to be in the top 2. There'd need to be an almost exactly three-way tie with him just one or two behind the other two. Not impossible. But a long shot. Think he could finish second, though, and that would be a blow.

Truss is going to the next PM, isn't she?

 

[moochedit]

Truss only 6 behind mordant and bad enoch's supporters are easily enough to close that gap. Also this story below says sunak would lose to everyone else in members vote. Tis looking like Truss will win at this stage.

Sunak would lose in final Tory member vote against three rivals, poll shows

Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss, and Kemi Badenoch could all defeat ex-chancellor

www.independent.co.uk

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[belboid]

The magic number is 120 to be guaranteed top 2, or 119 if certain people don't vote.

But votes can go down as well as up, as we have seen.

119 is enough if they dont give wotsisname the whip back

 

[spitfire]

DEATH MATCH!

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Theoretically they might all abstain. Or all spoil their ballot papers.

 

[JimW]

DEATH MATCH!

Death march could be arranged easily in this heat.

 

[Spandex]

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

 

[JimW]

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Liz Truss

Stations of the Truss, like the stages of grief.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It's a fair assumption that most of Badenoch's votes will go to Mordor or truss. Beyond that, the key issue is whether there's a significant shift between these 2. Not sure there is, so... fuck knows. We are back at sunak v truss/mordor.

Not sure that's the case. Badenoch worked for Sunak and some of her supporters - like Gove - are more likely to swing behind Sunak. The majority will go to Truss. Mordaunt looks done to me.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I don't care if she will do maximum damage to the tories, I don't want that nauseating fuckwit Liz Truss running the country for any length of time.