Tory Leadership contest 2022

[brogdale]

And they're off...Nads for PM?

 

[strung out]

And they're off...Nads for PM?

Won't be off until 6pm tonight at least.

 

[brogdale]

Won't be off until 6pm tonight at least.

I suspect preparations in the paddocks have been ongoing for some time...

 

[platinumsage]

Will anyone do a John Major and come from relative obscurity to win the next election against the odds, keeping the Tories in power until 2028?

 

[kebabking]

Johnson will just scrape it. He'll be catastrophically damaged, and the next year will be just ever more random culture war announcements, few of which will come to fruition, and he'll finally be ousted in 12 months at the next VONC.

(Urbans' foremost political forecaster, I have correctly predicted some 3 of the last 87 major political events)

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

It’s a depressingly shit prospect, whoever takes over. They’re all hopeless.

 

[brogdale]

It’s a depressingly shit prospect, whoever takes over. They’re all hopeless.

Worse than that; they're all tories

 

[LDC]

Yeah, I think he'll survive by the skin of his teeth.

 

[brogdale]

Johnson will just scrape it. He'll be catastrophically damaged, and the next year will be just ever more random culture war announcements, few of which will come to fruition, and he'll finally be ousted in 12 months at the next VONC.

(Urbans' foremost political forecaster, I have correctly predicted some 3 of the last 87 major political events)

Been lots of chatter about them 'not being ready' with the replacement yet...so maybe, but I expect those noises have been put out there for all of the their previous VoNCs

 

[ruffneck23]

it will be hunt shuddders

But at least he may clear out the cabinet.

 

[emanymton]

Yeah, I think he'll survive by the skin of his teeth.

I'm going to stick my neck out and based on nothing whatsoever say 200 votes for him.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Brady says arrangements are in place for proxy votes for colleagues who can't be there today.

Who decides who gets to cast the proxy votes? The cynic in me says either side can weaponise those in a secret ballot expected to be close.

 

[steveseagull]

The one year thing is not set in stone. They can change the rules if they so wish

 

[Plumdaff]

It'll be a close enough win that any other PM would resign but this is Johnson.

 

[platinumsage]

Brady says arrangements are in place for proxy votes for colleagues who can't be there today.

Who decides who gets to cast the proxy votes? The cynic in me says either side can weaponise those in a secret ballot expected to be close.

Presumably the person who can't vote chooses someone to cast a vote on their behalf, and obviously wouldn't pick someone who has any chance of not voting as they would.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Presumably the person who can't vote chooses someone to cast a vote on their behalf, and obviously wouldn't pick someone who has any chance of not voting as they would.

True, but they're Tories. They all have a price.

 

[bimble]

Why now though? Instead of months and months ago. Maybe there is an anointed successor.

 

[platinumsage]

True, but they're Tories. They all have a price.

It's a secret ballot, so how would that work?

 

[bimble]

Why now though? Instead of months and months ago. Maybe there is an anointed successor.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A some ministers are going to be damaged by their vocal support for Johnson, but many have avoided comment as much as possible, so it's worth looking at how party members rate them, this is from last week.

 

[killer b]

Will anyone do a John Major and come from relative obscurity to win the next election against the odds, keeping the Tories in power until 2028?

Ah yes, John Major, who came out of nowhere to clinch the leadership from the relative obscurity of [checks notes] 'chancellor of the exchequer', whatever that is.

 

[brogdale]

If the membership weren't so racist it would the banker Javid.

 

[rubbershoes]

It'll be a close enough win that any other PM would resign but this is Johnson.

Mrs Thatcher won the vote but then the cabinet all told her that her time was up. That's unlikely to happen here as the only criteria for being in Johnson's cabinet is loyalty to him and brexit

 

[kabbes]

It would be properly hilarious if they made Liz Truss prime minister. For about 2 minutes, before the crashing realisation that Liz Truss is now prime minister.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

It's a secret ballot, so how would that work?

"I hear you're casting the ballot for <absent colleague>. Here's a big sack of cash/cushy cabinet job/we won't release the photos* if you vote the right way."

I'm only messing btw, I know there will be some heavy leaning on MPs today but I don't think actual foul play.

*delete as appropriate

 

[brogdale]

It would be properly hilarious if they made Liz Truss prime minister. For about 2 minutes, before the crashing realisation that Liz Truss is now prime minister.

No worries, one of the UK's greatest political minds says blustercunt is safe..

 

[rubbershoes]

A some ministers are going to be damaged by their vocal support for Johnson, but many have avoided comment as much as possible, so it's worth looking at how party members rate them, this is from last week.

View attachment 325803

Never heard of Mark Spencer, but I really hope his middle name is Sand

 

[Kaka Tim]

Why now though? Instead of months and months ago. Maybe there is an anointed successor.

because the dam holding back the tide of excrement generated by johnson finally broke. Didn't happen in March thanks to putin.

 

[kebabking]

It'll be a close enough win that any other PM would resign but this is Johnson.

I saw an amusing quip from some Tory hack on twitter:

'He'll technically win, but the rebellion of some 150+ MP's will finish the idea that the government has the confidence of the House - so Graham Brady will visit the PM with a glass of whisky, a revolver, and the message that the time has come to do the decent thing. Unfortunately this is Boris Johnson, so he'll drink the whisky and shoot Brady...'

 

[platinumsage]

I don't see him winning. You heard it here first.