Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[socialist]

Mugabe comes out in support of cameron:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/04/robert-mugabe-david-cameron-conservatives

 

[ymu]

Ver good.

 

[butchersapron]

BPIX poll

CON 36%(-3), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 18%(nc). The poll was of 5655 people, so large enough to offer cross breaks of marginal seats. In the 75 Labour held seats where the Conservatives need a swing of less than 5% the shares of the vote are CON 40%, LAB 33%. This represents a swing of 6%, so far larger than the 2.5% swing on the headline figures. When the marginal cross-break is expanded to include the 110 seats where the Conservatives need a swing of up to 7.5%, the totals are CON 37%, LAB 36%, representing a swing of 4%.

 

[London_Calling]

I'm really not sure about YouGov.

 

[butchersapron]

BPIX have consistently given the tories larger leads than other pollsters over the last few years as well, usually 2-4% higher than others - if their topline is now 2% without any major changes in their MO, i think that's a real hammer blow for the tories.

 

[London_Calling]

The market sayeth . . .

Three weeks ago:
Tory majority: 1.47
NL Majority: 19.5
Hung: 3.55

Two weeks ago:
Tory majority: 1.52
NL Majority: 18.5
Hung: 3.3

One Week Ago:
Tory majority: 1.65
NL Majority: 14.5
Hung: 2.96

Now:
Tory majority: 1.68
NL Majority: 15.0
Hung: 2.94

 

[elbows]

Charlie Brooker in fine form when discussing how to jazz up the leadership tv debates...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/08/charlie-brooker-political-debates

Cameron in particular looks like a boring dot-eyed "nice" neighbour from an underwhelming Christian soap opera. He's a replicant; an Auton; a humanoid; a piece of adaptive software that's learned to appeal to your likes and dislikes – "customers who bought Tony Blair also bought the following" – but inadvertently creeped you out in the process. Let's face it: if you discovered he doesn't have a belly button or any pubic hair, and spends one night each week lying semi-conscious, face-down, "recharging" inside a giant white laboratory pod filled with amniotic fluid, you wouldn't be entirely surprised. And voters are likely to sense that eerie unearthliness. He'd better stutter or fluff a few times, just to throw them off the scent.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

I'm really not sure about YouGov.

YouGove are pretty well respected partly due to being the ones that polled the Mayoral elections very well...

BPIX have consistently given the tories larger leads than other pollsters over the last few years as well, usually 2-4% higher than others - if their topline is now 2% without any major changes in their MO, i think that's a real hammer blow for the tories.

Indeed. The fact that the polls are under 10pts is though in general. For a government that's been in power for years with a leader like Brown they should be doing a great deal better...

 

[pboi]

Cameron show on C4.

I cant help but watch

 

[weltweit]

Cameron show on C4.

I cant help but watch

I saw it, with Andrew Raunsley(sp), It was billed as a closer look at who David Cameron is, I thought it did not make up to its billing.

Mandelson's interventions were interesting.

 

[shagnasty]

It's a clever ploy by mandy to make out that cameron is weak and will not take on his party.Because that bastard blair certainly did

 

[weltweit]

It's a clever ploy by mandy to make out that cameron is weak and will not take on his party.Because that bastard blair certainly did

Mandy was certainly going to twist the knife slowly, as he did predicably.

 

[belboid]

I saw it, with Andrew Raunsley(sp), It was billed as a closer look at who David Cameron is, I thought it did not make up to its billing.

Mandelson's interventions were interesting.

It was an incredibly superficial programme i thought,m very disapointing. Mandy was quite good as was the bloke who said he thought Mrs C voted for Blair in 97 (oops), but otherwise...

 

[elbows]

Another poll:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7054655.ece

Many voters still have doubts about the Tories. The poll shows that in the key marginals 41 per cent of all voters, and 45 per cent of women, believe that it is “time for a change” but are not sure the change should be to the Conservatives. Thirty-four per cent think it is “time for a change” to the Tories, with 19 per cent saying that it does not seem like “time for a change” from Labour.

Populus puts the two main parties on about 38 per cent in the seats it polled. That amounts to a swing of about 6.7 per cent to the Tories from Labour since 2005 in those seats.

The poll targeted 100 Labour-held seats where the Tories came second at the last general election and which are 50 to 149 in their list of targets.

The poll excluded the 50 easiest seats for the Tories but included those the party needs to win for an overall majority.

Some other details of this poll are actually good news for the Tories, or at least not that bad, but Im tired and poll-overdosed right now so I wont waffle further.

 

[audiotech]

PMQ's is hilarious this week, with Cameron claiming: 'the tories won the cold war'. Brown came back to point out that Cameron was at still at school at the time. What a dick.

12.20 in.

 

[elbows]

OK here is something a bit different, a poll of 'The City'...

The overwhelming majority of members of our special panel – 530 professionals representing a broad cross-section of the City and those who work in London’s private sector – support the Tories. Backing for David Cameron’s party among the City A.M./PHI panel (a partnership with top analysts PoliticsHome; apply to join at www.cityam.com/panel) is over twice as high as among the population as a whole – and support for Labour more than three times lower. As we revealed on Tuesday, 73 per cent of our panel believe that an outright Tory victory would be best for the economy, with another 4 per cent believing that the best outcome would be for the Tories to form the largest party in a hung parliament. Just 10 per cent said a Labour majority would be best to sort out the economy.

Yet there is a substantial disconnect between these positions and support for the individuals who would be in charge of implementing the next government’s economic policies. No fewer than 36 per cent of our panel told us yesterday that they support Clarke, against just 23 per cent for Osborne, 20 per cent for Cable and a mere 7 per cent for Darling. Labour has lost the City; the New Labour, 1990s Blairite broad-church project is well and truly dead. It is back to the past when it comes to voting patterns, with one big difference: intense scepticism towards all parties. There is no great enthusiasm for the Tories, merely a belief that they would be better – or perhaps less bad – than Labour.

And lol @...

Some Tories even support Cable; given his rabidly anti-finance and pro-tax views, this shows just how desperate everybody is for strong and competent leadership.

http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/allister-heath/the-city-not-love-osborne

 

[Streathamite]

How did he get a council flat?

because he applied before thatcher declared war on council housing and thereby created our current housing crisis in London, of course.
e2a; ahh...just seen VP and EJ already done that five gazillion posts back.
My bad <slaps self for not keeping up>

 

[King Biscuit Time]

YouGov/Sun: Con 37% (nc), Lab 34% (+2), Lib Dems 17% (nc), Others 12% (-2)

 

[butchersapron]

Mad Angus Reid never fail to deliver :

CON 39%(+1), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 18%(-1).

Nutters

 

[London_Calling]

Fwiw, the market has not moved an inch since Sunday.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Fwiw, the market has not moved an inch since Sunday.

The Money men are kidding themselves.

 

[shagnasty]

That angus reid poll does seem a bit crazy .If you take the you gov sun daily tracker it varies by a point or two but does illustrate that tory support is going downand that is a based on a constant criteria

 

[butchersapron]

Daily Yougov:
CON 37%(nc), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 17%(nc)

ICM/Telegraph:
CON 38%(-2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 21%(+3).

I just got a fantastic labour leaflet/paper through the box - massive headline:

FREE LAPTOPS AND BROADBAND FOR FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN IN BRISTOL

The story actually is Kerry McCarthy (local Labour MP) 'urging local parents to check whether they qualify under the Homes access programme'. I love honesty.

 

[London_Calling]

The market sayeth . . .

Four weeks ago:
Tory majority: 1.47
NL Majority: 19.5
Hung: 3.55

Three weeks ago:
Tory majority: 1.52
NL Majority: 18.5
Hung: 3.3

Two weeks ago:
Tory majority: 1.65
NL Majority: 14.5
Hung: 2.96

One Week Ago:
Tory majority: 1.68
NL Majority: 15.0
Hung: 2.94

Now:
Tory majority: 1.76
NL Majority: 14.0
Hung: 2.78

 

[butchersapron]

Hey balders did you even bother reading the article before firing up your campaign bus today? Here's some quotes from it:

“Britain is full,” declares Nick Griffin at every opportunity, and he is right

Now it seems the fascists are on the march again. Whether you believe that the British National Party is a thinly veiled rebranding of the National Front or a different animal altogether, many Bermondsey & Old Southwark voters are listening to them (including roughly 2,000 who voted BNP in the 2008 GLA and 2009 European elections). I spend a great deal of time listening to the concerns of voters, and as someone who has lived and worked in this area for fifteen years myself, I am beginning to understand the appeal.

But why are these neglected people turning to the BNP – why not the Conservatives, the natural alternative to socialist excess? First, they assume (rightly or wrongly) that we have been complicit in this nonsense. Second, we assume that as BNP supporters are overwhelmingly disaffected former Labour voters, they are Labour’s problem and that we are therefore able to ignore the whole situation as just another example of Labour's inablity to keep its house in order. It is time for a new approach. BNP supporters aren’t just Labour’s problem – they are a Conservative opportunity.

If you can't read that as a naked appeal to the local BNP vote then there's something wrong with you.

Ooh look balders, more evidence that the tories (and labour lib-dems will be too) are looking to appeal to the BNP vote:

Tories 'airbrushed' ethnic minority candidates from campaign leaflets

The Conservatives have been accused of "pandering to prejudice" by omitting pictures of their non-white election candidates from campaign literature in areas where they are fighting the BNP.

Claims by the Tory leader, David Cameron, to be promoting ethnic diversity were called into question after an entire series of campaign calendars issued in east London – the front line of the fight against the BNP – contained only photographs of their white candidates.

 

[London_Calling]

YouGov poll in The Sun tomorrow says it's down to 2%:

Etonians: 36%
NL: 34%
LibDems: 17%


http://today.yougov.co.uk/

 

[Kid_Eternity]

YouGov poll in The Sun tomorrow says it's down to 2%:

Etonians: 36%
NL: 34%
LibDems: 17%


http://today.yougov.co.uk/

Seems to me the more the Tories attack GBrown the more points they lose in the polls...

 

[Combustible]

Also another poor showing for the Lib Dems. Seems to happen whenever he comes out and either talks about propping up the Tories in government or otherwise praises them as he did with Thatcher (although I doubt that fully explains it).

 

[belboid]

I may stick something on a Labour win, tories seem to be fucking it (he says, hopefully)

 

[ymu]

I may stick something on a Labour win, tories seem to be fucking it (he says, hopefully)

I did this the day Ashcroft came unstuck. The odds have shortened a fair bit since then, but probably not a bad bet the way the Tories are fucking this campaign up.