Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[glenquagmire]

butchers have you seen the stats suggesting that the swing to the Tories is much greater in the marginals than across the country generally?

I would still bet on a Tory majority, if pushed.

 

[butchersapron]

I saw the analysis that the bloke did for political betting recently - i read a few good answer posts as well - the results in wards in marginals in locals over the last 6 months simply do not back up the idea that there's a far larger swing to the tories in those seats - and that's without the return of the labour voters (i.e only vote labour) that i expect to put at least a single % points on labour nationally.

 

[London_Calling]

The betting market - with under £1 mill matched - says:

Tory majority: 1.47 - has been as low as 1.34
NL Majority: 19.5 - has been as high as 22.0
Hung: 3.55 - has been as low as 2.0 and as high as 5.0


The market is not much impressed with NL closing.

 

[butchersapron]

Not that impressed with 'the market' to be fair.

 

[kabbes]

Not that impressed with 'the market' to be fair.

Then it's a good time for you to take a position with a bet!

 

[London_Calling]

Not that impressed with 'the market' to be fair.

Great time then to sort your retirement fund out.

 

[butchersapron]

Give me some money that i can bet with then.

 

[London_Calling]

What postion in the market do you fancy?

 

[butchersapron]

Hung parliament - tories about 20-25 short.

 

[glenquagmire]

Sporting Index has Tories 342-347 and you think they'll get 306 or thereabouts. Would be a tidy profit if you're correct.

 

[London_Calling]

Probably not a bad shout as a buy in so much you'd have to think the price should shorten - at least for a period - between now and May. I'd want to sell it at some point though.

If that's your guess for the final result . . . I guess there's much still to play for.

Yoiu might still retire to Riga.

 

[butchersapron]

Yougov has gap at 6%:

YouGov show their smallest Tory lead for 14 months

The Conservatives are on the brink of being overtaken by Labour as the party likely to win the most seats in a general election, today’s Sunday Times YouGov poll reveals.

With the Tory lead sliding to just six points, the party is on course to win 290 seats, while Labour would pick up 280.

[...]

The Conservatives, on 39%, are down one point on last month’s YouGov survey, while Labour has gone up two points to 33%. The Lib Dems have slipped one point to 17%.

The resurgence in Labour support is no brief blip, but part of a trend that began in the new year as voters started to scrutinise David Cameron’s party more closely.

Crucially, the Labour bounce is underpinned by a recovery in Brown’s personal ratings. Today’s poll puts him on minus 21, compared with minus 50 following last June’s disastrous European elections.

 

[pboi]

come on Labour!!

beat that Cameron like you beat your aides

 

[London_Calling]

I don't know what the research says about George Osbourne but in my book he's an enormous liabilty. The more profile they give him the better, imo.

 

[butchersapron]

...

Although 64% say they do not trust Brown and his chancellor, Alistair Darling, almost the same number, 63%, voice doubts about Cameron and George Osborne, the shadow chancellor

 

[TAE]

The last thing I want is a lib-lab pact.

You can just guess what the Libs would want out of it, PR..

And if we have PR, then the Libs will have influence for ever !!

Disaster

So, you'd rather not have a more representative voting system because it means that a certain party might gain more influence?

Or were you being sarcastic?




EDIT - yikes, just noticed this is another necro-thread from last year.

 

[ymu]

I don't know what the research says about George Osbourne but in my book he's an enormous liabilty. The more profile they give him the better, imo.

Hasn't he managed to persuade them to let him do a televised debate with Darling and Cable? Terrible idea.

 

[butchersapron]

EDIT - yikes, just noticed this is another necro-thread from last year.

It's not, it's an ongoing thread.

 

[TAE]

Yes, fair enough.

 

[weltweit]

So, you'd rather not have a more representative voting system because it means that a certain party might gain more influence?

Or were you being sarcastic?

I am happy with first past the post.

It usually results in a clear winner.

It does not result usually in the smallest party having unbalanced power as some kind of a kingmaker.

 

[butchersapron]

Another poll out today - ComRes for Theos. CON 38%(-2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 20%(-1).

 

[Mitre10]

^

What would that mean - a hung parliament?

 

[butchersapron]

Possibly - it would depend on the rgeional and marginal swing/breakdown though.

More polling/survey stuff from over the weekend:

Cameron's personal lead halved in five months

Analysis of data from 20 PoliticsHome surveys over a six month period reveals that:

- Cameron's lead over Brown in performance ratings has halved since September

- The image of the Conservative party has also deteriorated in several key areas since September, while Labour's has improved

- Cameron’s leadership performance ratings have fallen at a faster rate than the Conservative party image and the party’s lead in the polls.

if the trend continued at its current rate, his performance rating would move into negative territory just before a likely election on 6 May.

 

[London_Calling]

The betting market - with under £1 mill matched - says:

Tory majority: 1.47 - has been as low as 1.34
NL Majority: 19.5 - has been as high as 22.0
Hung: 3.55 - has been as low as 2.0 and as high as 5.0

Now:

Tory majority: 1.52
NL Majority: 18.5
Hung: 3.3

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think fear of a Tory Government is starting to push the labour vote up.
In this light Browns 'take a second look at labour - take a long look at the others' angle looks like a shrewd move and they will be increasinly concentrating fire on the toires policies - especailly their 'austerity agenda'.

Thatchers recession looks like becoming the tories albatros in the same way as the winter of discontent did for labour - i.e. tories = massive spending cuts and mass unemployemnt whilst labour will manage the pain (as opposed to the tories 'stong medicine' that only works when it hurts).

Cameroon should be doing much much better given the circumstances - I rekon the tories are getting nervous. Also I think the banking collapse, credit crunch put them in an awkward position ideologically. Might see pary unity wobble as the pressure increases and if the polls continune to tighten. The media also seem to be increasingly less enamoured with Cameron.

However - unless Labour somehow win - there's likey to be a messy conflict in the labour party after the election, with the Blairites trying to push some twat like milliband as the leader.

As it is its looking like a hung parliament or a barely workable majority for the tories - so another GE could come within 18 months (possibly under a new voting sysytem)

 

[JHE]

In the bad old days of Tory govt, we got to a situation in which opinion polls significantly underestimated the Tory vote. This was said to be because some people who voted Tory were shy of telling pollsters that they would do so. The idea, which may well have been true, was that voting Tory was seen as nasty or selfish, so some people kept quiet about it.

Once the polling organisations were forced to admit that their polling was inaccurate - following the 1992 election, IIRC, when the polls got it surprisingly wrong - they started adjusting their data to take into account the strange phenomenon of the shy Tory voters.

Does anyone know (i) whether there is any evidence of the shy Tory phenomenon now and (ii) whether pollsters are still making adjustments to the data so as to avoid underestimating the Tory vote?

 

[Kaka Tim]

In the bad old days of Tory govt, we got to a situation in which opinion polls significantly underestimated the Tory vote. This was said to be because some people who voted Tory were shy of telling pollsters that they would do so. The idea, which may well have been true, was that voting Tory was seen as nasty or selfish, so some people kept quiet about it.

Once the polling organisations were forced to admit that their polling was inaccurate - following the 1992 election, IIRC, when the polls got it surprisingly wrong - they started adjusting their data to take into account the strange phenomenon of the shy Tory voters.

Does anyone know (i) whether there is any evidence of the shy Tory phenomenon now and (ii) whether pollsters are still making adjustments to the data so as to avoid underestimating the Tory vote?

Dont know - would be suprised if its still an issue - I wonder instead wether there is now a 'shy labour' voter element - as they are so unpopular and 'biffer' brown so derided.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh no!! 7%
Hung parliament looms as Tory support crumbles

Support for David Cameron's Conservative party has crumbled to its lowest point for nearly two years, according to the latest monthly Guardian/ICM poll, leaving Britain on course for a hung parliament at the coming general election.

 

[London_Calling]

Put another way:

 

[butchersapron]

Go on...that's the money fuck all people have put on. How might it change!!