For those victims who do want to face the past and seek justice, I'm not sure how much a cold, calculated guesstimate of the chances of successful prosecution can or does factor into the equation. If I were to attempt such a calculation as of this point in 2014, the following leap out as especially relevant to chances of successfully convincing a jury:
Lots of victims giving evidence. (probably a prime factor in many CPS decisions for and against bringing various people to trial so far)
A particular modus-operandi of the accused when offending, which has quirks and is corroborated by numerous victims.
A general long-standing seedy reputation within the fame industry the alleged perpetrator worked in.
How the accused behaves in and around court.
Sadly, and to a varying extents and even the reverse, how 'beloved' the famous alleged perpetrator was, and how wide the gulf between their image and the real them may be.
I have given some thought to this question, since I have had to make such a cold, calculated guesstimate
When I decided to make disclosure, I had to be realistic about the possibility that a) the police wouldn't take me seriously, b) even if they did, it'd be a courteous response and No Further Action, c) that I might not be able to go through with the disclosure process, d) I might do so and it went nowhere, e) the CPS would consider it not worth pursuing, or f) it'd go to court but result in an acquittal.
I cannot - obviously - speak for everyone in the position I was in, but as things stand, a, b, c and d have turned out to have been unfounded fears. We are now awaiting e) the decision of the CPS, and, assuming it goes to court, f) the trial itself.
My cold, calculated guesstimate was based on the fact that, for some reason, I felt I had to make some kind of disclosure, regardless of where it led. The fact that it has gone as far as it has is, in my view, a bonus: I have shared my experiences, and not only do I feel I have been listened to, but the people whom I alleged to be responsible have been interviewed under caution and have therefore been made aware of the allegations I have made. If nothing else happens, then I know that the past has reached out and tapped them on the shoulder, and I imagine that would have been a chilling and unpleasant experience for them.
If the case goes ahead, I have one last major challenge - that of giving evidence and subjecting myself to, potentially, the same kind of assault that witnesses in these celebrity cases have been subject to. I have paid a lot of attention to what has gone on in court, so as to prepare myself for the possibility that the same will happen to me. I have not come this far to fall at the last hurdle, and I think I am fortunate in that I have the kind of character that will be able to withstand the kind of questioning I fully expect to experience. I am also - perhaps unwisely, I don't know - prepared to confront my abusers in court, something which I am aware is often a huge challenge for victims. Both of those things, I feel, impose a kind of duty on me to do what I can, since I can, to see this through. It may even be that my willingness to stand up in court will encourage others who have been victimised by the same perpetrators, or others, to have the courage to report their experiences, too.
And I guess that's why I have an interest in how those these people have abused are treated in court: because I want it to be possible, within the bounds of justice, for anyone to be able to stand up and say "this person did this to me, and I don't think they should be able to get away with it". It has to be "within the bounds of justice", because every person that gets wrongly convicted is a nail in the coffin of this new openness that is beginning, and ammunition for those who - and I still hear it from people I talk to - are convinced that every complainant is merely a gold-digger after some compensation from an innocent person whose only crime has been celebrity and/or a tendency to be a bit "hands-on".