krtek a houby
Kick me again Jesus
NotedChrist no, it's tedious enough the first time round
The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not
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Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Right populism’s sweet spot is to the left of the elite liberals on the economy and to the right on social issues.
I think those claiming that some sort of ceiling exists for that approach and for right populism are overlooking the rapid implosion of the centre.
Whilst there is a ceiling to Reform’s support (and there is always the chance that they might fuck themselves through infighting, which did for previous right populist vehicles) there is also going to be a splintering away on the left. Nobody in their right mind could want another 5 years of Starmer and Co and so the Greens and the execrable Liberals will continue to attract support.
So, Farage and co don’t need to go that much higher. They do need to target resources to defeat Labour in red wall seats and pick up a few soft Tory seats in the south.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Anyway as we're doing repeats,. I think Reform's ability to capture political disaffection will be limited. If they or what comes after, do more of the red, in red brown, something significantly beneificial on housing, then they will represent a far greater threat.
I dunno as long as Labour keep feeding them stuff that they can dine off like winter fuel, the WASPI stuff, attacks on living standards etc they'll do fine
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes, taking from 'both sides' to broaden the base is a key strategy of right populism, but the refUKer's 2024 'manifesto', though dripping in right-wing social conservatism, had surprisingly little in the way of out-lefting the elite liberals. With the exception of their proposal to make a £35bn-a-year "raid on banks" by ceasing to pay interest on the £700bn of bonds held at the Bank of England and saying they'd plough an extra £17bn into "the NHS" (private providers), I really can't recall much else that could be cast as economically left of the elite centre.
That's not to say that they might not go for more next time, but so far the billionaires company purporting to be a political party has looked fairly straight-forwardly right-wing.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Le pen's mob in France are a better example.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Agree. Plus, at the last GE the Reform target was disillusioned Tories, in 2029 it'll be disaffected Labour voters.
Brogdale is correct that much of their current economic offer reflects Farage's personal politics of reheated 80's Thatcherism. But expect a more JD Vance style tribute act next time...
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I'm not so sure. I think there will be populist elements on the economy but Liz Truss seriously spooked that set, and Farage himself is ex-City. Plus Britain doesn't benefit from protectionism nearly as much as the US does (different setup and far less leverage). This far out it's entirely guesswork, but mine might be waffly insurgent economic rhetoric with relatively little backbone.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Therein lies the challenge of the 'difficult second album'; having to attract the disaffected from both sides. tricky
krtek a houby
Kick me again Jesus
Whilst can definitely see JD Vance playing second (or third) fiddle to Trump (and maybe temporarily to Musk) ... Farage is predictable but still able to jump around.
Besides harking back to the past, who would Farage be paying tribute to, at this stage? Obviously he's happy to bow to the Trump machine, but back in the UK he's been a fixture for years, always manage to avoid relegation and aviation disasters.
With the alleged backing of Musk and an angry electoral base, perhaps he feels his time is now and while he's likely to trade on nostalgia, reckon his ego and determination is to mythologise his own importance. He's learning from Trump all the time, learning to promote the idolatry and bluster.
With possibly unlimited financial backing and a sense of entitlement and destiny, I fear it's going to be more of a dreadful reboot than tribute.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I think one thing makes Farage particularly dangerous in a way is that he seems happier than most of that type to not be the powerful dictator. He just keeps grifting away, cashing in when he can and jumping on any opportunities that come up. He's had plenty of down times but is always there and keeps coming back. I can't see a Trump having the patience tbh.
krtek a houby
Kick me again Jesus
Trump will go cold on him, if it suits. We've seen his dropping of those he feels aren't useful, or who become a distraction. Musk, on the other hand, won't. The latter is too much of a megalomaniac to pass up the opportunity to control and interfere on an international scale.
IMHO, obviously and hope to fuck am wrong about this.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Musk, and Trump, are libertarian Billionaires/Millionaires. Populist and popular certainly, but at some point over the next 4 years also possessive of interests diametrically opposed to those of the millions of multi racial working class Americans who voted for them.
Vance is far far more ambitious and he's working class. He's worked out that the vast gulf of space that exists for a generational shift along both cultural and economic grounds of mass sections of the working class away from a Democratic Party wholly collapsed into the representing the interests of the professional managerial class and towards the GOP is now picking up pace.
As LBJ says the Front National have reached the same conclusion, and its public face is increasingly the youth of the banlieue and those of the working class and downward middle class in the forgotten towns and rural areas.
That, whether Farage likes it or not, is also where Reform will head if it is to win power. Whilst Farage is popular, his economic programme isn't going to cut the mustard in places like Sunderland, the dead zones on the peripheries of the cities or among the dispossed youth without political representation.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yes also I would argue that le pen is more politically savvy, and thus more dangerous, than Farage. We'll see what reform come up with but their ideas last election were half baked nonsense from a group that knew it would never be in power. Refuse to pay interest on loans? The economy would crash immediately, and presumably they know that.
By contrast, le pen has been able to demonstrate a concrete anti cuts, anti neolib stance.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Agreed, Reform's glaring weakness is that is lives and dies through Farage. Swivel eyed nutters like Lee Anderson, Rupert Lowe and the rest of them are seriously low rent.
But a) we said the same about Le Pen once and b) part of their normalisation project will mean better odds of genuinely charasmatic new, younger, Bardella type figures emerging over the next 5-10 years.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Difference between Britain and France, of course, is that, while the right is better organised and much more established, and now flexing real power nationally, France also still has an electorally functioning left to oppose both it and the 'centrists'.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Regarding the refUKers' recent great publicity splash about their membership numbers, we must be getting close to seeing them claim that they've overtaken one of the 2 main parties in Parliament? When that happens it must be the first time since the young LP overtook the Liberal party membership at some point after 1918?
Derek S-H
Klaatu. Barada. Nikto.
You call your wife, "My wife", in your avatar.
Is she a person in her own right or does she belong to you?
What's the difference between "wife" and "missus"? Boo is an East End boy, that's probably how he pronounces the word, "Mrs."
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maomao
普費斯
How do you pronounce 'missus'?
Poot
My wife thinks I work too hard
I don't want to derail the thread but I don't actually have a wife, no one thinks I work too hard and no one in my family is called Mrs anything but more importantly no one refers to anyone as My Missus. Because it's demeaning.
Derek S-H
Klaatu. Barada. Nikto.
Awww, Happy Holidays to you and all the po-faced, self-important and humourless people on this Thread!
I genuinely wish you a very good day doing whatever you like and I'm sure you won't offend anyone in the process.
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