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The next American Civil War

i am not sure this is entirely a domestic phenomenon, but something which has been fanned by america's peer- or near-peer countries - namely russia and china. this article notes the disinformation campaigns run by russia and china around the presidential election last year. being as the united states is reorienting its armed forces to deal with countries like russia and china it's no surprise that they're trying to destabilise the united states. so for me this isn't a domestic situation but warfare by another name by moscow and beijing.
 
I am sure the wheels were oiled but wonder whether they might have got there anyway.

a highly armed, divided country, increasingly being whipped into a frenzy by partisan politicians and "journalists" (Fox News). of course they already have an out of control armed militia (police). and with Trump and co increasingly openly acting above the law, only seems to be going one way.
 
crojoe said:
what year do we think it will start? and who will win?

www.nytimes.com

Opinion | How to Tell When Your Country Is Past the Point of No Return

The endangered state of American politics.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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It depends on what anyone means by "Civil War". There's no neatly defined pair of geographical and political blocs here, ready to face off against each in the manner of the Union and the Confederacy. It's also not as though there's a coherent single leadership to lead that kind of conflict. Trump can barely work his TiVo on his own let alone listen to anyone who isn't him talking for any length of time, so it's not like he's going to mount any coherent effort to fight a war.

That leaves his base, who are dangerous in a far more abstract way. Terrorism, shooting, mass unrest? All entirely possible, but fragmented and as incoherent as their figurehead.

So Civil War, in the conventional, literal sense? I doubt it. A perpetual, low-grade conflict ignited and sustained by individual deluded idiots (or in small groups) with guns, Internet access, and an inflated opinion of their capabilities? Sure.
 
patter_haggis said:
It depends on what anyone means by "Civil War". There's no neatly defined pair of geographical and political blocs here, ready to face off against each in the manner of the Union and the Confederacy. It's also not as though there's a coherent single leadership to lead that kind of conflict. Trump can barely work his TiVo on his own let alone listen to anyone who isn't him talking for any length of time, so it's not like he's going to mount any coherent effort to fight a war.

That leaves his base, who are dangerous in a far more abstract way. Terrorism, shooting, mass unrest? All entirely possible, but fragmented and as incoherent as their figurehead.

So Civil War, in the conventional, literal sense? I doubt it. A perpetual, low-grade conflict ignited and sustained by individual deluded idiots (or in small groups) with guns, Internet access, and an inflated opinion of their capabilities? Sure.
Click to expand...

well, there are two neatly defined political blocs. and while Trump wouldn't be first out of the trenches he's obviously already led his supporters into an armed storming of the US government building.
 
crojoe said:
well, there are two neatly defined political blocs. and while Trump wouldn't be first out of the trenches he's obviously already led his supporters into an armed storming of the US government building.
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Trump's supporters are very definitely not a uniform political bloc, not even close. Free market libertarians, QAnon nutjobs, Evangelicals who believed he'd support their worldview in exchange for their votes, ordinary Republicans holding their noses and voting for him because they'd personally would never vote Democrat - and people who literally voted for him out of boredom.

Most of these groups are not going to entertain the idea of another civil war, regardless of what they think about the opposition, or the election. It's the small, but psychologically unstable and deluded subset of the QAnon types that are a danger to others.

The real threat to the United States isn't another Civil War, it's the death of American democracy by a thousand little cuts, and that process has been going on for a long time now.
 
patter_haggis said:
Trump's supporters are very definitely not a uniform political bloc, not even close. Free market libertarians, QAnon nutjobs, Evangelicals who believed he'd support their worldview in exchange for their votes, ordinary Republicans holding their noses and voting for him because they'd personally would never vote Democrat - and people who literally voted for him out of boredom.

Most of these groups are not going to entertain the idea of another civil war, regardless of what they think about the opposition, or the election. It's the small, but psychologically unstable and deluded subset of the QAnon types that are a danger to others.

The real threat to the United States isn't another Civil War, it's the death of American democracy by a thousand little cuts, and that process has been going on for a long time now.
Click to expand...

Not sure there's ever been real democracy in that nation.
 
patter_haggis said:
pport their worldview in exchange for their votes, ordinary Republicans holding their noses and voting for him because they'd personally would never vote Democrat - and people who literally voted for him out of boredom.

Most of these groups are not going to entertain the idea of another civil war, regardless of what they think about the opposition, or the election. It's the small, but psychologically unstable and deluded subset of
Click to expand...
krtek a houby said:
Not sure there's ever been real democracy in that nation.
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Well, that's a matter of debate in every state that aspires to democracy as description.

When North Korea uses "Democratic People’s Republic of Korea" as an official state name with a straight face, it's all relative.
 
patter_haggis said:
Well, that's a matter of debate in every state that aspires to democracy as description.

When North Korea uses "Democratic People’s Republic of Korea" as an official state name with a straight face, it's all relative.
Click to expand...

Indeed. Both states function on fear, propaganda, cult of personality leaders rather than looking after the people, and both believe that they have some kind of destiny above all others.
 
patter_haggis said:
Well, that's a matter of debate in every state that aspires to democracy as description.

When North Korea uses "Democratic People’s Republic of Korea" as an official state name with a straight face, it's all relative.
Click to expand...

It's not a matter of debate. It wasn't until the 1960s that legal restrictions on African Americans' right to vote were abolished and from then to now there have been policies in many states to either restrict access to the ballot or to gerrymander voting districts.
 
Well the GOP all over the states are busy restricting and removing voting rights. Come 2024 if they don't win the last election will look like a cake walk.
 
i'm no political analysist lol, but something is happening. i don't know what it is. to quote dylan.

the political world seems so different to when i was growing up in this country. debate seemed much more about facts and dry and boring discussions, and people had just one or two outlets for their news - but i don't know, maybe i'm delusional, but the whole interaction between both sides seemed so much more sane, rational, even, dare i say, it friendly. a willingness to conceede perhaps, even if just sometimes, than what it is now where it just seems people are forever screaming at each other. i still look on with awe at my dad and his mates debating over a cup of tea before the football - some on the left, most on the right - but they do it with such humour and connection, they take the piss and even often concede. i've been listening to them do that for nearly all my life. then i log onto twitter.
 
BigMoaner said:
...maybe i'm delusional, but the whole interaction between both sides seemed so much more sane, rational, even, dare i say, it friendly. a willingness to conceede perhaps, even if just sometimes, than what it is now where it just seems people are forever screaming at each other. i still look on with awe at my dad and his mates debating over a cup of tea before the football - some on the left, most on the right - but they do it with such humour and connection, they take the piss and even often concede. i've been listening to them do that for nearly all my life. then i log onto twitter.
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I don't think that's a generational thing - I think that may be a quirk of your Dad and his mates.
Until very recently my Dad would come to blows before conceding a point over anything.
 
8ball said:
I don't think that's a generational thing - I think that may be a quirk of your Dad and his mates.
Until very recently my Dad would come to blows before conceding a point over anything.
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yeh quite possibly. they're very close and it is a bit odd really as they are as far apart politically as you can imagine.
 
PTK said:
That the USA is not run by a cult of personality in the sense that it is meant when people refer to the the DPRK..
Click to expand...

The DPRK is run by ruthless self-interested brutes. The personality cult is window dressing.
 
Mad to see such a rich country so divided by obscene inequality and misinformation from within and without. It's a vast country and there used to be so many strands of genius, tradition, decency. Not remotely perfect, obviously, but now it's all given up for wankstains like Alex Jones and Tucker Carlson.
 
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