Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

World War III

I dunno, they have vast tracts of land that are barely habitable due to the cold climate. Might find themselves with a refugee problem though…
Every country will suffer the consequences in its own way.
 
And, of course, liberal democracy is indeed doomed, in the same way that all political systems are ultimately doomed. Everything has a use-by date.

How soon it will happen and where it will start is up for debate, but signs of it have begun. In some countries it's little more than a charade already. If the climate crisis is going to accelerate in the way that many fear, liberal democracy will not be able to cope anyway, and all the dominoes will fall.

Obviously Russia will no more be able to escape the effects of severe climate disaster than anywhere else.
Largely agree, but the way things are shaping up now the replacement for liberal democracy will likely be worse.
 
What kind of parties do you get to go to? At the ones I get invited to anybody with a teacher's pension counts as super-rich.

I say tank - actually this:

IMG_0947.jpeg

I think due to our local fuddy duddy laws he has to keep the gun turret in a deactivated state until shit goes down.

He’s very atypical of the group at the party. Imagine Walter White from Breaking Bad if he’d never been swindled out of the cash from the brilliant chemistry ideas he’d had in his youth.

Pretty interesting guy to talk to, esp. on subjects like tax, the ways of the rich, what he thinks is wrong with the country..
 
Last edited:
I say tank - actually this:

Imagine Walter White from Breaking Bad if he’d never been swindled out of the cash from the brilliant chemistry ideas he’d had in his youth.
Imagine Walter White if they had anything resembling a free or cheap health service.
 
What lessons can the EU learn from the Austro-Hungarian Empire?

If people are sincerly worried about WW3, in Sweden they did the brochure If Crisis or War Comes which is useful, page 10 especially. Gone are the days when I thought preppers were loons.

Blimey.

If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false
 
Not likely but definitely.
The hope for me is that we are on the cusp of a functional abolition of linguistic difference - there are generative AI tools that can do seamless simultaneous translations that could make online discussions open to people of all linguistic backgrounds.

The reason why the rise of social democracy went into reverse was that globalisation weakened the bargaining power of trade unions as you can always move somewhere with lower wages. Any attempt to challenge capital has to be truly global. There is a possibility of such a movement emerging in the near future, enabled by a breakdown of linguistic difference and ever increasing points of common reference. I don't really see any other hope of challenging capital.
 
Last edited:
I say tank - actually this:

View attachment 409149

I think due to our local fuddy duddy laws he has to keep the gun turret in a deactivated state until shit goes down.

He’s very atypical of the group at the party. Imagine Walter White from Breaking Bad if he’d never been swindled out of the cash from the brilliant chemistry ideas he’d had in his youth.

Pretty interesting guy to talk to, esp. on subjects like tax, the ways of the rich, what he thinks is wrong with the country..
A bullet proof truck but won’t stop IEDs or rpgs
 
I'm afraid it does look inevitable, perhaps not this year but we are close to the stage where a stray missile or calculated mis-step by one of the involved parties could see things spiral out of control very, very quickly.

I think the stuff about Russia attacking the Baltics is total horseshit. They are struggling to make much impact against Ukrainian lines even with the collective West currently vacillating about further aid. They don't have the people or the equipement to menace Suwaliki Gap seriously- though they may try to make it look like they do.

Much more likely that a regional war in the Middle East will escalate beyond the borders and a general breakdown amidst a totally withered and sclerotic international security order will gather pace after that.

The luck most of us have is that currently we live a "normal" life so I suppose we have to try and enjoy that whilst we can.

I don't think Britain has been more unprepared to fight a war, ever. Our army is small and known internationally as "the borrowers" because our kit doesn't work. The navy has been steadily decommissioning and has galaxy brains capable of reversing their ship into another. The air force is also cut back to the bone, the equivalent of a few poorly serviced squadrons of Gloster Gauntlets and Vickers Wildebeests in September 1939. Oh well, if WW3 breaks as everyone expects it to, there won't be much use for conventional forces anyway.

The dissonance of "normality" being drowned out by events- graphic and horrible reports from the growing number of hot war sites around the world set alongside panstaking analysis of whether Eric ten Hag will be sacked or not, and glossy lifestyle programmes as though it's the turn of the century, really jars somehow. Really psychologically odd. And it will just get worse this year unfortunately.
 

3 US soldiers killed and dozens injured in a drone strike in Jordan, Biden blames "radical Iran-backed militant groups".

A dangerous escalation. Let's hope cool heads prevail - but a drift towards war with Iran seems alarmingly plausible now.
 

3 US soldiers killed and dozens injured in a drone strike in Jordan, Biden blames "radical Iran-backed militant groups".

A dangerous escalation. Let's hope cool heads prevail - but a drift towards war with Iran seems alarmingly plausible now.

The Jordanians are saying this was not in their territory, but rather at the al-Tanf US base in Syria.
 

3 US soldiers killed and dozens injured in a drone strike in Jordan, Biden blames "radical Iran-backed militant groups".

A dangerous escalation. Let's hope cool heads prevail - but a drift towards war with Iran seems alarmingly plausible now.
Many cool heads will see this as a situation to be exploited
 
I'm afraid it does look inevitable, perhaps not this year but we are close to the stage where a stray missile or calculated mis-step by one of the involved parties could see things spiral out of control very, very quickly.

I think the stuff about Russia attacking the Baltics is total horseshit. They are struggling to make much impact against Ukrainian lines even with the collective West currently vacillating about further aid. They don't have the people or the equipement to menace Suwaliki Gap seriously- though they may try to make it look like they do.

Much more likely that a regional war in the Middle East will escalate beyond the borders and a general breakdown amidst a totally withered and sclerotic international security order will gather pace after that.

The luck most of us have is that currently we live a "normal" life so I suppose we have to try and enjoy that whilst we can.

I don't think Britain has been more unprepared to fight a war, ever. Our army is small and known internationally as "the borrowers" because our kit doesn't work. The navy has been steadily decommissioning and has galaxy brains capable of reversing their ship into another. The air force is also cut back to the bone, the equivalent of a few poorly serviced squadrons of Gloster Gauntlets and Vickers Wildebeests in September 1939. Oh well, if WW3 breaks as everyone expects it to, there won't be much use for conventional forces anyway.

The dissonance of "normality" being drowned out by events- graphic and horrible reports from the growing number of hot war sites around the world set alongside panstaking analysis of whether Eric ten Hag will be sacked or not, and glossy lifestyle programmes as though it's the turn of the century, really jars somehow. Really psychologically odd. And it will just get worse this year unfortunately.
You're being unfair about the ship collision. Apparently the wiring was fucked up so attempts to stop reversing only led to faster reversing. Tho that really proves the point you're trying to make
 

3 US soldiers killed and dozens injured in a drone strike in Jordan, Biden blames "radical Iran-backed militant groups".

A dangerous escalation. Let's hope cool heads prevail - but a drift towards war with Iran seems alarmingly plausible now.
Is there any particular worry about the consequences of a war with Iran? I mean locally it would be pretty shit, but not going to trigger a global fuckover is it? Maybe some terror attacks on these shores and stuff chucked at Israel and shipping, hitting oil prices and fuelling inflation, what else?

one effect would be that any resistance movements within Iran would fall silent and be either internally crushed or would turn in support of the government against the greater evil of the west. This kind of happened with the gulf war previously, without Iran being an overt party to the conflict.
 
Is there any particular worry about the consequences of a war with Iran? I mean locally it would be pretty shit, but not going to trigger a global fuckover is it? Maybe some terror attacks on these shores and stuff chucked at Israel and shipping, hitting oil prices and fuelling inflation, what else?

one effect would be that any resistance movements within Iran would fall silent and be either internally crushed or would turn in support of the government against the greater evil of the west. This kind of happened with the gulf war previously, without Iran being an overt party to the conflict.

The worry for me is that the US getting bogged down in a quagmire in the Middle East could trigger other more dangerous flashpoints, such as Taiwan and perhaps the Baltics.
 
The worry for me is that the US getting bogged down in a quagmire in the Middle East could trigger other more dangerous flashpoints, such as Taiwan and perhaps the Baltics.
I would assume the Chinese are just waiting for the Middle East to tip into war as a distraction before they have a proper shot (which will fail) toward Taiwan. The issue comes afterwards when the Chinese fail, they don't like to lose face...
 
I would assume the Chinese are just waiting for the Middle East to tip into war as a distraction before they have a proper shot (which will fail) toward Taiwan. The issue comes afterwards when the Chinese fail, they don't like to lose face...
Why do you think it will fail? How long could Taiwan last out against a blockade?
 
Why do you think it will fail? How long could Taiwan last out against a blockade?
A blockade would likely escalate into a conflict between China and US navies, so the question isn't how long could Taiwan last against a blockade but rather, who would win WW3?
 
Is there any particular worry about the consequences of a war with Iran? I mean locally it would be pretty shit, but not going to trigger a global fuckover is it? Maybe some terror attacks on these shores and stuff chucked at Israel and shipping, hitting oil prices and fuelling inflation, what else?

one effect would be that any resistance movements within Iran would fall silent and be either internally crushed or would turn in support of the government against the greater evil of the west. This kind of happened with the gulf war previously, without Iran being an overt party to the conflict.
The worry for me is that the US getting bogged down in a quagmire in the Middle East could trigger other more dangerous flashpoints, such as Taiwan and perhaps the Baltics.

Iran is surrounded by potential flashpoints too and it's a fairly prominent regional actor, IRGC get all over. They've got a prominent interest in Azerbaijan and Armenia's problems for example, so the former taking advantage to attack the latter isn't all that unlikely. Baluchistan/Pakistan is a massive mess they're caught up in. In Iraq they're a (if not the) major force too. In fact in their own very, very minor and localised way they act a lot like the US, establishing themselves all over and even if they don't have the capacity to project real force they have the ability to cause a lot of chaos.

Anyway, Iran has zero desire for war with the US or Israel, they're a regional power that's been condemned by the US and they act in a way that reflects their need to secure a position that might protect them somewhat. And the US would be masochistically stupid to take any real action there beyond the usual tit for tat retaliations which everyone is undertaking at the moment, even if it's a war they can 'win' to some degree there's absolutely no upside waiting at the other end of a conflict. Iran is a profoundly nationalistic country, they're not going to turn into a US vassal state any more than Afghanistan was.
 
Back
Top Bottom