A must watch I think... It's not just the words...
Heres the bigger reportThe words in the tweet aren't in the video ("certainly within the next 20 years"). Misleading, and it's impossible to predict 20 years out anyway. Which is closer to what he said/meant.
There's not much more in that, but it does change the tone slightly from what I imagined. It's also backs up by his almost identical speech from a year ago. In it, he makes the case for national service and increased readiness. He doesn't say war is coming in that speech either, but he says it might if we look weak - by not having people who can defend the country.Heres the bigger report
There's not much more in that, but it does change the tone slightly from what I imagined. It's also backs up by his almost identical speech from a year ago. In it, he makes the case for national service and increased readiness. He doesn't say war is coming in that speech either, but he says it might if we look weak - by not having people who can defend the country.
It's hard to know which angle he's coming from:
1. Is he a warmonger (he says he is not), but depending on your political position you might disagree.
2. Is he just trying to encourage building a credible deterrent? Maybe. NATO's big upcoming exercise is clearly a show of force to Putin, and reaffirming the commitment to defend the Baltics etc, so effectively saying to Putin, "you don't want to try this." If each NATO country had dad's army types all trained up with guns, then that's an even bigger deterrent to invasion. Plausible logic, but I don't think it changes anything with Russia. They're not running on logic.
3. Is he genuinely telling people to prepare because he thinks war is coming? He doesn't ever say it's coming. Only that it could if we don't arm, and train etc., so I have no reason to think he believes Russia will actually invade a NATO country.
Despite faulty logic, Russia knows they cannot invade a NATO country. The fear of nukes that stops NATO bombing Russia in Ukraine isn't unique to Western countries. I'm pretty sure the Russians are also afraid of NATO's nukes and so aren't going to be invading anywhere under the nuclear 'umbrella'.
And even without nukes, Russia just doesn't have the military capability. If the war in Ukraine keeps dragging on like it is, then they'll be in an even worse state in 20 years. It's alright showing how many thousand tanks they have still left in storage, but they're losing irreplaceable, strategic early warning airplanes, warships etc. If Ukraine has been able to hold Russia back with old Soviet gear and NATO hand-me-downs (in small numbers), how do they expect it'll go against 32 of the world's richest, most-militarised countries? It will be messy, of course, but ultimately Russia will lose.
Of course in a hypothetical NATO vs Russia war, it's unlikely that China and Iran will sit it out. There might be others, too. India seems pretty unreliable these days, but surely they wouldn't go all in with China and Russia against the West. And China itself is a weird one. Obviously a massive bag of cunts, but they have a lot to lose from a war with NATO. Much more than Russia do. I'm not sure they would risk it unless it was certain they would win, and that's far from true.
So, my penny's worth: I don't think there's a big war coming. I feel like loads of scary stuff happening at the minute that definitely makes it seem possible, but there's too much to lose for most people involved, and I'm not sure what the upside is. What does China gain from another World War on the opposite side of the most powerful militaries in the world?
I don't think a Russian blitzkrieg is really on the cards
Blitzkrieg was successful for the Germans because of their expert use of combined arms and the element of surprise they gained in the sweep through the ardennes. The russians have struggled to say the least with combined arms operations.(Replying to a post from the Gaza thread here to avoid derailing that one).
Just a reminder that the combined population of the three Baltic States is around 6 million compared to 40 million in Ukraine, and the total area is around 67,000 square miles compared to Ukraine's 233,000 square miles. Apart from the fact they are in NATO, they would be much easier for Russian to quickly occupy than Ukraine.
There might not be an immediate plan, but Putin certainly wants to test NATO's commitment to common defense, and if the correct circumstances arose (Trump elected and cutting aid to Ukraine and making noises about leaving NATO, right wing populists a la Orban elected in a few more European states, distractions in the Balkans, US embroiled in the Middle East) then I think he will seize the opportunity.
He sees himself in terms of Russian history and his legacy. Taking the Baltics would cement Russia as a hegemonic power in Europe (and the world) again. It is too big a prize for him to let the opportunity go should it arise.
And of course, there is the possibility that he might badly misjudge Europe's willingness to fight Russia. I reckon even if NATO in the end feared direct confrontation with Russia too much to do anything, Poland at least will fight and it would escalate.
But that doesn't mean they won't try it.Blitzkrieg was successful for the Germans because of their expert use of combined arms and the element of surprise they gained in the sweep through the ardennes. The russians have struggled to say the least with combined arms operations.
Blitzkrieg was successful for the Germans because of their expert use of combined arms and the element of surprise they gained in the sweep through the ardennes. The russians have struggled to say the least with combined arms operations.
There are other ways to gain the initiative and element of surprise these days by causing chaos - remember that mysterious drone which shut down Gatwick Airport? And a combination cyber attacks, misinformation, as well as underwater fibreoptic cables that connect Europe to the US.Absolutely, also Poland and France couldn't literally see them coming, NATO will see a build up of troops (several hundred) miles away and respond accordingly.
I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope it doesn't happen in 20 years when I'll be too old to run away fast enough. Unless of course it gets nuclear in which case there's no running to be done.
The big one will have happened by thenAbsolutely, also Poland and France couldn't literally see them coming, NATO will see a build up of troops (several hundred) miles away and respond accordingly.
I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope it doesn't happen in 20 years when I'll be too old to run away fast enough. Unless of course it gets nuclear in which case there's no running to be done.
The big one will have happened by then
I remain very skeptical about Russian expansionism towards western europe beyond the south of Ukraine, even in twenty years time....it's impossible to know if that NATO admiral saying to buy a torch is acting off secret intelligence or beating the drum to generate war fever and more military funding or expressing his own speculation or what. As with all these matters we don't have access to state intelligence.Regarding the Baltics, Russia does have the capability to seize them, but doesn't have the capability to defend them from a NATO counter attack. The real question is whether that counter attack would actually happen, or importantly, does Putin doubt sufficiently that it would happen?
I remain very skeptical about Russian expansionism towards western europe beyond the south of Ukraine, even in twenty years time....it's impossible to know if that NATO admiral saying to buy a torch is acting off secret intelligence or beating the drum to generate war fever and more military funding or expressing his own speculation or what. As with all these matters we don't have access to state intelligence.
The cost-gain balance of trying to seize the Baltics doesn't add up to me...im not saying its impossible of course. Russia has access to the Baltic sea already around St Petersburg + Kaliningrad...the Ukraine advance makes much more sense, not least because the war has been going on for years there already.
"I don't think he is going to do it yet, but I've heard that within the Kremlin there is a kind of inverse-Fukayamism which has taken hold as a kind of article of faith, which asserts that liberal democracy is inevitably doomed."The benefit is that you show NATO to be a paper tiger and return Russia to a hegemonic position over Eastern Europe. Belarus is already a de facto satellite and there are steps to absorb it into the Union State.
Union State - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Taking Ukraine, the Baltics, and the Transnistria region of Moldova (if not all of Moldova) would mean getting back the entirety of the European part of the Soviet Union, gaining another 60 million people, and being in a better position to exert pressure and influence over other European countries. For the Baltics in particular, if they can be taken without NATO intervention then it also amounts to a geopolitical defeat of NATO. Russia would return as a major world power and Putin would be the Great Historical Leader he wants to be.
I don't think he is going to do it yet, but I've heard that within the Kremlin there is a kind of inverse-Fukayamism which has taken hold as a kind of article of faith, which asserts that liberal democracy is inevitably doomed. So there is a vague belief that at some point in future an opportunity will arise, and also an effort to accelerate this through misinformation campaigns aimed at accentuated divides and tensions within and between European countries. Including Trump and Brexit. Not saying they caused it directly, but the vast misinformation machine they operate is aimed at backing up elements that divide and weaken NATO countries.
"I don't think he is going to do it yet, but I've heard that within the Kremlin there is a kind of inverse-Fukayamism which has taken hold as a kind of article of faith, which asserts that liberal democracy is inevitably doomed."
How would the end of "liberal democracy" in NATO countries be of use to Russia? Are you saying that would be less able to fight it they were not democracies?
I think the Eastern European countries with their recent memories of being occupied by the USSR will countenance a rerun with Russia occupying them. The Poles, Czechs and Slovaks would, I suspect fight like cornered rats to stop that happening.(Replying to a post from the Gaza thread here to avoid derailing that one).
Just a reminder that the combined population of the three Baltic States is around 6 million compared to 40 million in Ukraine, and the total area is around 67,000 square miles compared to Ukraine's 233,000 square miles. Apart from the fact they are in NATO, they would be much easier for Russian to quickly occupy than Ukraine.
There might not be an immediate plan, but Putin certainly wants to test NATO's commitment to common defense, and if the correct circumstances arose (Trump elected and cutting aid to Ukraine and making noises about leaving NATO, right wing populists a la Orban elected in a few more European states, distractions in the Balkans, US embroiled in the Middle East) then I think he will seize the opportunity.
He sees himself in terms of Russian history and his legacy. Taking the Baltics would cement Russia as a hegemonic power in Europe (and the world) again. It is too big a prize for him to let the opportunity go should it arise.
And of course, there is the possibility that he might badly misjudge Europe's willingness to fight Russia. I reckon even if NATO in the end feared direct confrontation with Russia too much to do anything, Poland at least will fight and it would escalate.
Like the Ukrainians.I think the Eastern European countries with their recent memories of being occupied by the USSR will countenance a rerun with Russia occupying them. The Poles, Czechs and Slovaks would, I suspect fight like cornered rats to stop that happening.
Slovakia has just elected a pro-Russian government.I think the Eastern European countries with their recent memories of being occupied by the USSR will countenance a rerun with Russia occupying them. The Poles, Czechs and Slovaks would, I suspect fight like cornered rats to stop that happening.
There seems to be some trouble brewing with Serbia/Bosnia/Kosovo with signs of Putin's influence. Another crisis in Europe to distract from Ukraine and sow general discord could be just the distraction needed.Slovakia has just elected a pro-Russian government.
Putin hasn’t spent more than a decade funding populist authoritarians across Europe for nothing.
Sarajevo is not and never has been in serbia.There seems to be some trouble brewing with Serbia/Bosnia/Kosovo with signs of Putin's influence. Another crisis in Europe to distract from Ukraine and sow general discord could be just the distraction needed.
Would be a weird coincidence if the trigger for WW3 turns out to be something relatively minor happening in Serbia.
What lessons can the EU learn from the Austro-Hungarian Empire?Sarajevo is not and never has been in serbia.
Any lessons the eu learned would be lost on the ukWhat lessons can the EU learn from the Austro-Hungarian Empire?
If people are sincerly worried about WW3, in Sweden they did the brochure If Crisis or War Comes which is useful, page 10 especially. Gone are the days when I thought preppers were loons.
And, of course, liberal democracy is indeed doomed, in the same way that all political systems are ultimately doomed. Everything has a use-by date.I think it is more a general belief that liberal democracies have inherent weaknesses and authoritarian states like Russia and China have competitive advantages so will ultimately prevail.
I dunno, they have vast tracts of land that are barely habitable due to the cold climate. Might find themselves with a refugee problem though…Obviously Russia will no more be able to escape the effects of severe climate disaster than anywhere else.