World War III
- Thread starter WhyLikeThis
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gosub
~#
Put tea lights in it for a function emergency cooker...
My parents generation would tell you reserve food ...but number of people on food banks...
Nukes and a couple of days in....meh
But a couple of days low comms no grid plausible and worth having contingency
Buffering....
My parents generation would tell you reserve food ...but number of people on food banks...
Nukes and a couple of days in....meh
But a couple of days low comms no grid plausible and worth having contingency
Buffering....
Last edited:
Fez909
toilet expert
The words in the tweet aren't in the video ("certainly within the next 20 years"). Misleading, and it's impossible to predict 20 years out anyway. Which is closer to what he said/meant.
Good advice to be prepared, though, and it definitely feels like something's brewing
ska invita
back on the other side
Fez909
toilet expert
There's not much more in that, but it does change the tone slightly from what I imagined. It's also backs up by his almost identical speech from a year ago. In it, he makes the case for national service and increased readiness. He doesn't say war is coming in that speech either, but he says it might if we look weak - by not having people who can defend the country.
It's hard to know which angle he's coming from:
1. Is he a warmonger (he says he is not), but depending on your political position you might disagree.
2. Is he just trying to encourage building a credible deterrent? Maybe. NATO's big upcoming exercise is clearly a show of force to Putin, and reaffirming the commitment to defend the Baltics etc, so effectively saying to Putin, "you don't want to try this." If each NATO country had dad's army types all trained up with guns, then that's an even bigger deterrent to invasion. Plausible logic, but I don't think it changes anything with Russia. They're not running on logic.
3. Is he genuinely telling people to prepare because he thinks war is coming? He doesn't ever say it's coming. Only that it could if we don't arm, and train etc., so I have no reason to think he believes Russia will actually invade a NATO country.
Despite faulty logic, Russia knows they cannot invade a NATO country. The fear of nukes that stops NATO bombing Russia in Ukraine isn't unique to Western countries. I'm pretty sure the Russians are also afraid of NATO's nukes and so aren't going to be invading anywhere under the nuclear 'umbrella'.
And even without nukes, Russia just doesn't have the military capability. If the war in Ukraine keeps dragging on like it is, then they'll be in an even worse state in 20 years. It's alright showing how many thousand tanks they have still left in storage, but they're losing irreplaceable, strategic early warning airplanes, warships etc. If Ukraine has been able to hold Russia back with old Soviet gear and NATO hand-me-downs (in small numbers), how do they expect it'll go against 32 of the world's richest, most-militarised countries? It will be messy, of course, but ultimately Russia will lose.
Of course in a hypothetical NATO vs Russia war, it's unlikely that China and Iran will sit it out. There might be others, too. India seems pretty unreliable these days, but surely they wouldn't go all in with China and Russia against the West. And China itself is a weird one. Obviously a massive bag of cunts, but they have a lot to lose from a war with NATO. Much more than Russia do. I'm not sure they would risk it unless it was certain they would win, and that's far from true.
So, my penny's worth: I don't think there's a big war coming. I feel like loads of scary stuff happening at the minute that definitely makes it seem possible, but there's too much to lose for most people involved, and I'm not sure what the upside is. What does China gain from another World War on the opposite side of the most powerful militaries in the world?
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
I think the big problem is precisely that the Russians - and others - look at what is happening in the West and think that a military adventure might work.
I don't mean the wokeness has destroyed Western civilization nonsense, but the way in which neoliberal / neoconservative ruling parties (or classes, really) have deliberately sowed huge divisions (political, economic, social) in Western societies in order to maintain political power and thereby avoid the electoral and criminal punishment that their mismanagement of economies, societies and international affairs merits so strongly.
This leaves the West really vulnerable, and it really needs to be fixed irrespective of whether WW3 is looming or not.
(Replying to a post from the Gaza thread here to avoid derailing that one).
Just a reminder that the combined population of the three Baltic States is around 6 million compared to 40 million in Ukraine, and the total area is around 67,000 square miles compared to Ukraine's 233,000 square miles. Apart from the fact they are in NATO, they would be much easier for Russian to quickly occupy than Ukraine.
There might not be an immediate plan, but Putin certainly wants to test NATO's commitment to common defense, and if the correct circumstances arose (Trump elected and cutting aid to Ukraine and making noises about leaving NATO, right wing populists a la Orban elected in a few more European states, distractions in the Balkans, US embroiled in the Middle East) then I think he will seize the opportunity.
He sees himself in terms of Russian history and his legacy. Taking the Baltics would cement Russia as a hegemonic power in Europe (and the world) again. It is too big a prize for him to let the opportunity go should it arise.
And of course, there is the possibility that he might badly misjudge Europe's willingness to fight Russia. I reckon even if NATO in the end feared direct confrontation with Russia too much to do anything, Poland at least will fight and it would escalate.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Blitzkrieg was successful for the Germans because of their expert use of combined arms and the element of surprise they gained in the sweep through the ardennes. The russians have struggled to say the least with combined arms operations.
But that doesn't mean they won't try it.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Absolutely, also Poland and France couldn't literally see them coming, NATO will see a build up of troops (several hundred) miles away and respond accordingly.
I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope it doesn't happen in 20 years when I'll be too old to run away fast enough. Unless of course it gets nuclear in which case there's no running to be done.
There are other ways to gain the initiative and element of surprise these days by causing chaos - remember that mysterious drone which shut down Gatwick Airport? And a combination cyber attacks, misinformation, as well as underwater fibreoptic cables that connect Europe to the US.
Of course you wouldn't literally have something identical to the Blitzkrieg of WW2, but the essence of the Blitzkrieg is that it seized an advantage by using new technologies of war that their opponents were not adequately prepared for. I think we are in a similar moment now where there are new vulnerabilities and vectors of attack which have opened thanks to new technologies. Not only that, but the complexity of the global economy these days also opens up vulnerabilities, Houthi attacks on global shipping routes with a few drones is a good example of this.
Regarding the Baltics, Russia does have the capability to seize them, but doesn't have the capability to defend them from a NATO counter attack. The real question is whether that counter attack would actually happen, or importantly, does Putin doubt sufficiently that it would happen?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The big one will have happened by then
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Good to know, thanks.
ska invita
back on the other side
I remain very skeptical about Russian expansionism towards western europe beyond the south of Ukraine, even in twenty years time....it's impossible to know if that NATO admiral saying to buy a torch is acting off secret intelligence or beating the drum to generate war fever and more military funding or expressing his own speculation or what. As with all these matters we don't have access to state intelligence.
The cost-gain balance of trying to seize the Baltics doesn't add up to me...im not saying its impossible of course. Russia has access to the Baltic sea already around St Petersburg + Kaliningrad...the Ukraine advance makes much more sense, not least because the war has been going on for years there already.
The benefit is that you show NATO to be a paper tiger and return Russia to a hegemonic position over Eastern Europe. Belarus is already a de facto satellite and there are steps to absorb it into the Union State.
Union State - Wikipedia
Taking Ukraine, the Baltics, and the Transnistria region of Moldova (if not all of Moldova) would mean getting back the entirety of the European part of the Soviet Union, gaining another 60 million people, and being in a better position to exert pressure and influence over other European countries. For the Baltics in particular, if they can be taken without NATO intervention then it also amounts to a geopolitical defeat of NATO. Russia would return as a major world power and Putin would be the Great Historical Leader he wants to be.
I don't think he is going to do it yet, but I've heard that within the Kremlin there is a kind of inverse-Fukayamism which has taken hold as a kind of article of faith, which asserts that liberal democracy is inevitably doomed. So there is a vague belief that at some point in future an opportunity will arise, and also an effort to accelerate this through misinformation campaigns aimed at accentuated divides and tensions within and between European countries. Including Trump and Brexit. Not saying they caused it directly, but the vast misinformation machine they operate is aimed at backing up elements that divide and weaken NATO countries.
PTK
Paul Kegan
"I don't think he is going to do it yet, but I've heard that within the Kremlin there is a kind of inverse-Fukayamism which has taken hold as a kind of article of faith, which asserts that liberal democracy is inevitably doomed."The benefit is that you show NATO to be a paper tiger and return Russia to a hegemonic position over Eastern Europe. Belarus is already a de facto satellite and there are steps to absorb it into the Union State.
Union State - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Taking Ukraine, the Baltics, and the Transnistria region of Moldova (if not all of Moldova) would mean getting back the entirety of the European part of the Soviet Union, gaining another 60 million people, and being in a better position to exert pressure and influence over other European countries. For the Baltics in particular, if they can be taken without NATO intervention then it also amounts to a geopolitical defeat of NATO. Russia would return as a major world power and Putin would be the Great Historical Leader he wants to be.
I don't think he is going to do it yet, but I've heard that within the Kremlin there is a kind of inverse-Fukayamism which has taken hold as a kind of article of faith, which asserts that liberal democracy is inevitably doomed. So there is a vague belief that at some point in future an opportunity will arise, and also an effort to accelerate this through misinformation campaigns aimed at accentuated divides and tensions within and between European countries. Including Trump and Brexit. Not saying they caused it directly, but the vast misinformation machine they operate is aimed at backing up elements that divide and weaken NATO countries.
How would the end of "liberal democracy" in NATO countries be of use to Russia? Are you saying that would be less able to fight it they were not democracies?
Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
Trump's reelection, subsequent chucking of Ukraine under the bus and unilateral withdrawal from NATO would sow just the right amount of chaos and disorder for a military adventurist to take full advantage of. He may be saying 20+ years down the line but it may come a lot sooner than that...
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
I think the Eastern European countries with their recent memories of being occupied by the USSR will countenance a rerun with Russia occupying them. The Poles, Czechs and Slovaks would, I suspect fight like cornered rats to stop that happening.
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
Like the Ukrainians.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Slovakia has just elected a pro-Russian government.
Putin hasn’t spent more than a decade funding populist authoritarians across Europe for nothing.
There seems to be some trouble brewing with Serbia/Bosnia/Kosovo with signs of Putin's influence. Another crisis in Europe to distract from Ukraine and sow general discord could be just the distraction needed.
Would be a weird coincidence if the trigger for WW3 turns out to be something relatively minor happening in Serbia.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Sarajevo is not and never has been in serbia.
What lessons can the EU learn from the Austro-Hungarian Empire?
If people are sincerly worried about WW3, in Sweden they did the brochure If Crisis or War Comes which is useful, page 10 especially. Gone are the days when I thought preppers were loons.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Any lessons the eu learned would be lost on the uk
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
And, of course, liberal democracy is indeed doomed, in the same way that all political systems are ultimately doomed. Everything has a use-by date.
How soon it will happen and where it will start is up for debate, but signs of it have begun. In some countries it's little more than a charade already. If the climate crisis is going to accelerate in the way that many fear, liberal democracy will not be able to cope anyway, and all the dominoes will fall.
Obviously Russia will no more be able to escape the effects of severe climate disaster than anywhere else.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I dunno, they have vast tracts of land that are barely habitable due to the cold climate. Might find themselves with a refugee problem though…
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
In any case, Russia will no more be able to do what people are speculating about in this thread than a belligerant Italy would, as their economies are said to be roughly the same size. Russia's may actually have shrunk significantly after the Ukraine war, and will take a long time to rebuild even if it's possible.
It is not the Soviet Union and never will be anything comparable again.
If there is another world war it will be because populations have been conned into it as always.
It is not the Soviet Union and never will be anything comparable again.
If there is another world war it will be because populations have been conned into it as always.
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