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The next American Civil War

BigMoaner said:
i'm no political analysist lol, but something is happening. i don't know what it is. to quote dylan.

the political world seems so different to when i was growing up in this country. debate seemed much more about facts and dry and boring discussions, and people had just one or two outlets for their news - but i don't know, maybe i'm delusional, but the whole interaction between both sides seemed so much more sane, rational, even, dare i say, it friendly. a willingness to conceede perhaps, even if just sometimes, than what it is now where it just seems people are forever screaming at each other. i still look on with awe at my dad and his mates debating over a cup of tea before the football - some on the left, most on the right - but they do it with such humour and connection, they take the piss and even often concede. i've been listening to them do that for nearly all my life. then i log onto twitter.
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Think in a way, the internet enabled and now encourages people to "speak" to each other without any limits.

Any decorum/mutual respect/etiquette/basic human decency has been reduced in favour of instant "fuck you" gratification, especially when it comes to political discussion. In some ways, it's "good" as it cuts out dithering and folks say what they mean, rather than going through the niceties and around the houses. But in most ways, imho, it's shit/horrible. People don't do discourse/debate/discussion anymore, and facts go out the window.

Trump and other populists capitalised on this, and their rise shouldn't be that surprising. Trump was reasonably astute enough to see the potential of social media, he was merely reflecting on a grand scale, the kind of shitposting/bad faith/trolling that already existed.

This is my cynical, jaded view of it. Was all enamoured and loved up with the idea of global connections and speaking to people via the power of the worldwide web, some 25 + years ago. Really (naively) believed it was a new age of co-operation and a coming together of humanity. And yes, of course, there is good in it, there are communities out there & people who benefit from the internet age. But sometimes you read stuff that just makes you want to walk into the sea for good.

Sorry for rambling.
 
krtek a houby said:
Think in a way, the internet enabled and now encourages people to "speak" to each other without any limits.

Any decorum/mutual respect/etiquette/basic human decency has been reduced in favour of instant "fuck you" gratification, especially when it comes to political discussion. In some ways, it's "good" as it cuts out dithering and folks say what they mean, rather than going through the niceties and around the houses. But in most ways, imho, it's shit/horrible. People don't do discourse/debate/discussion anymore, and facts go out the window.

Trump and other populists capitalised on this, and their rise shouldn't be that surprising. Trump was reasonably astute enough to see the potential of social media, he was merely reflecting on a grand scale, the kind of shitposting/bad faith/trolling that already existed.

This is my cynical, jaded view of it. Was all enamoured and loved up with the idea of global connections and speaking to people via the power of the worldwide web, some 25 + years ago. Really (naively) believed it was a new age of co-operation and a coming together of humanity. And yes, of course, there is good in it, there are communities out there & people who benefit from the internet age. But sometimes you read stuff that just makes you want to walk into the sea for good.

Sorry for rambling.
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I think their is a lot of truth in this, but it goes further. The filters and boundaries are not only absent online, the scope for mass manipulation (by governments, financial interests etc) can push people to black and white 'no compromise' extremism.

The internet is startlingly recent and its' impact is revolutionary. It's the Wild West, from the way it frames individual social interaction (without body language and the attendant protective factor of empathy) to the global political climate.

That was pretentious as fuck, sorry. Time for bed.
 
Thought you might like this American Civil War

Robert Evans' It Could Happen Here podcast from 2019 is good

This youtube talk (an hour long) with author and security analyst David Kilcullen, from 2020, outlines a lot of the possible flash points.



Though with for-profit healthcare amid a global pandemic, the opiate epidemic, police violence, suicide and other deaths of despair, and as the bodycount rises, the civil war actually started some time ago.
 
Biden is fucked because he’s still bogged down by Covid which dominates the news cycle and prevents other policies cutting through. The republicans know this which is why they’re railing so hard against measures to limit covid, even if it kills thousands of their own supporters. As long as it sustains then Biden doesn’t get to play the victor or get to focus on other things. The democrats will get fucked in the midterms and the house/senate will then scupper anything they seek to achieve. A do nothing presidency which will leave the door open for trump or something worse.
 
When it happens can we support one side whilst building, arming and crewing commerce raiders for the other?
 
Retired general warns the U.S. military could lead a coup after the 2024 election
December 31, 2021
How could a coup play out in 2024?

The real question is does everybody understand who the duly elected president is? If that is not a clear-cut understanding, that can infect the rank and file or at any level in the U.S. military.

And we saw it when 124 retired generals and admirals signed a letter contesting the 2020 election. We're concerned about that. And we're interested in seeing mitigating measures applied to make sure that our military is better prepared for a contested election, should that happen in 2024.
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How worried is he on a scale of 1 to 10?

I see it as low probability, high impact. I hesitate to put a number on it, but it's an eventuality that we need to prepare for. In the military, we do a lot of war-gaming to ferret out what might happen. You may have heard of the Transition Integrity Project that occurred about six months before the last election. We played four scenarios.

And what we did not play is a U.S. military compromised — not to the degree that the United States is compromised today, as far as 39% of the Republican Party refusing to accept President Biden as president — but a compromise nonetheless. So, we advocate that that particular scenario needs to be addressed in a future war game held well in advance of 2024.
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8ball said:
I can’t see it because paywall, but a warning from 3 retired generals is a scary thought.
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As we approach the first anniversary of the deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, we — all of us former senior military officials — are increasingly concerned about the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for lethal chaos inside our military, which would put all Americans at severe risk.
In short: We are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time.

One of our military’s strengths is that it draws from our diverse population. It is a collection of individuals, all with different beliefs and backgrounds. But without constant maintenance, the potential for a military breakdown mirroring societal or political breakdown is very real.

The signs of potential turmoil in our armed forces are there. On Jan. 6, a disturbing number of veterans and active-duty members of the military took part in the attack on the Capitol. More than 1 in 10 of those charged in the attacks had a service record. A group of 124 retired military officials, under the name “Flag Officers 4 America,” released a letter echoing Donald Trump’s false attacks on the legitimacy of our elections.
Recently, and perhaps more worrying, Brig. Gen. Thomas Mancino, the commanding general of the Oklahoma National Guard, refused an order from President Biden mandating that all National Guard members be vaccinated against the coronavirus. Mancino claimed that while the Oklahoma Guard is not federally mobilized, his commander in chief is the Republican governor of the state, not the president.

The potential for a total breakdown of the chain of command along partisan lines — from the top of the chain to squad level — is significant should another insurrection occur. The idea of rogue units organizing among themselves to support the “rightful” commander in chief cannot be dismissed.
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Imagine competing commanders in chief — a newly reelected Biden giving orders, versus Trump (or another Trumpian figure) issuing orders as the head of a shadow government. Worse, imagine politicians at the state and federal levels illegally installing a losing candidate as president.
All service members take an oath to protect the U.S. Constitution. But in a contested election, with loyalties split, some might follow orders from the rightful commander in chief, while others might follow the Trumpian loser. Arms might not be secured depending on who was overseeing them. Under such a scenario, it is not outlandish to say a military breakdown could lead to civil war.

In this context, with our military hobbled and divided, U.S. security would be crippled. Any one of our enemies could take advantage by launching an all-out assault on our assets or our allies.

The lack of military preparedness for the aftermath of the 2020 election was striking and worrying. Trump’s acting defense secretary, Christopher C. Miller, testified that he deliberately withheld military protection of the Capitol before Jan. 6. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly scrambled to ensure the nation’s nuclear defense chains were secure from illegal orders. It is evident the whole of our military was caught off-guard.
With the country still as divided as ever, we must take steps to prepare for the worst.

First, everything must be done to prevent another insurrection. Not a single leader who inspired it has been held to account. Our elected officials and those who enforce the law — including the Justice Department, the House select committee and the whole of Congress — must show more urgency.

But the military cannot wait for elected officials to act. The Pentagon should immediately order a civics review for all members — uniformed and civilian — on the Constitution and electoral integrity. There must also be a review of the laws of war and how to identify and deal with illegal orders. And it must reinforce “unity of command” to make perfectly clear to every member of the Defense Department whom they answer to. No service member should say they didn’t understand whom to take orders from during a worst-case scenario.
In addition, all military branches must undertake more intensive intelligence work at all installations. The goal should be to identify, isolate and remove potential mutineers; guard against efforts by propagandists who use misinformation to subvert the chain of command; and understand how that and other misinformation spreads across the ranks after it is introduced by propagandists.

Finally, the Defense Department should war-game the next potential post-election insurrection or coup attempt to identify weak spots. It must then conduct a top-down debrief of its findings and begin putting in place safeguards to prevent breakdowns not just in the military, but also in any agency that works hand in hand with the military.
The military and lawmakers have been gifted hindsight to prevent another insurrection from happening in 2024 — but they will succeed only if they take decisive action now
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Thanks for the text.
I'm going to let some of my esteemed colleagues get started on the unpacking...
 
The consequences of the US dissolving into an all-out civil war would be horrifying for both the US and the wider world. Despite the desperate wank fantasies of degenerates like the proud boys or the sinister maneouverings of the various cosplayers in the militias, the US is still a long way off from that sort of thing kicking off. It's more likely to be what others have described; a prolonged low-grade conflict sustained by the actions of 'lone wolf' types and small groups of heavily armed suicidal nutters. Of course, shameless opportunists and grifters will try to fan the flames for personal advantage as daily life gets progressively worse for the poor fuckers caught in the middle.
 
Nylock said:
The consequences of the US dissolving into an all-out civil war would be horrifying for both the US and the wider world. Despite the desperate wank fantasies of degenerates like the proud boys or the sinister maneouverings of the various cosplayers in the militias, the US is still a long way off from that sort of thing kicking off. It's more likely to be what others have described; a prolonged low-grade conflict sustained by the actions of 'lone wolf' types and small groups of heavily armed suicidal nutters. Of course, shameless opportunists and grifters will try to fan the flames for personal advantage as daily life gets progressively worse for the poor fuckers caught in the middle.
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The manoeuvring and flame-fanning of low grade conflict won't merely be coming from within the US though, will it. Certain international parties have interest in continuing and enlarging the conflict.
 
Not sure a civil war will be needed or relevant if/when the republicans get in next time. They'll be able to do what they want.
 
Hilary Clinton and Ted Cruz or Trump as the runners would be the worst for divisions maybe?
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Hilary Clinton and Ted Cruz or Trump as the runners would be the worst for divisions maybe?
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both of clinton and cruz are unimaginable.
it's trump or desantis vs biden or somebody (sherrod brown?) (the party doesn't seem to be rallying behind harris).
 
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petee said:
(the party doesn't seem to be rallying behind harris).
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Yes, what is going on with that?

It seems Harris barely gets a mention in the UK media (I could even say never gets a mention) is she really that invisible?

:confused:
 
a_chap said:
Yes, what is going on with that?

It seems Harris barely gets a mention in the UK media (I could even say never gets a mention) is she really that invisible?

:confused:
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You'd think that she'd get some of the higher profile, 'good news' stuff - it seems utterly, and I suppose entirely in-keeping, of the Dems to shit on their own doorstep and ensure there's a nasty nomination fight that sets them all off at war with each other rather than presenting Harris as the widely acclaimed, accomplished, well-known, experienced candidate rather than whatever batshit yahoo the republicans put up....
 
a_chap said:
Yes, what is going on with that?

It seems Harris barely gets a mention in the UK media (I could even say never gets a mention) is she really that invisible?

:confused:
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the vice-presidency is what the president makes of it. bush jr used cheney heavily. bush sr treated quayle as invisible (the talk at the time was that bush sr picked a non-entity as running mate to make the election all about himself, and it worked). one gets the impression that biden picked a multiculti for the votes but now that he's in office she can be forgotten.

CNN has a typically turgid take:
www.cnn.com

Exasperation and dysfunction: Inside Kamala Harris' frustrating start as vice president

Worn out by what they see as entrenched dysfunction and lack of focus, key West Wing aides have largely thrown up their hands at Vice President Kamala Harris and her staff -- deciding there simply isn't time to deal with them right now, especially at a moment when President Joe Biden faces...
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
DeSantis probably. Guy is a grade A reactionary cunt. Possibly Abbott who is also doing the same rabble rousing populist shit and playing political games with Covid.
 
a_chap said:
Yes, what is going on with that?

It seems Harris barely gets a mention in the UK media (I could even say never gets a mention) is she really that invisible?

:confused:
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I’ve only done limited scratching around (all of it in the US media), but I can’t find much good that anyone has to say about Harris’ performance so far.
 
8ball said:
I’ve only done limited scratching around (all of it in the US media), but I can’t find much good that anyone has to say about Harris’ performance so far.
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Is that because she hasn't been any good or is something else going on? Hard to know from this distance.
 
i heard taht TEd Cruz went to Harvard? isn't his whole shtick that he's just a simple ye harr country boy? is it all an affectation?
 
bluescreen said:
Is that because she hasn't been any good or is something else going on? Hard to know from this distance.
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There is talk of her being pre-emptively sidelined in the White House as a precaution against a sleepiness episode becoming infinitely prolonged, and hence her hands being tied, but that is really the most optimistic assessment I have seen.

Ethnic minorities don’t seem to trust her much, either.

I’d mentioned it partly in the hope of seeing some counter-arguments cos it doesn’t look great. I’d quite like to be proven wrong.
 
8ball said:
There is talk of her being pre-emptively sidelined in the White House as a precaution against a sleepiness episode becoming infinitely prolonged, and hence her hands being tied, but that is really the most optimistic assessment I have seen.

Ethnic minorities don’t seem to trust her much, either.

I’d mentioned it partly in the hope of seeing some counter-arguments cos it doesn’t look great. I’d quite like to be proven wrong.
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Geez, 'a sleepiness episode' fills me with horror. And then I wonder if we aren't already in it.
 
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