The Leaders' Mass Debate

[danny la rouge]

I think they've just given up on Scotland in the short term and are just concentrating everything on the swing voters in Lab-Tory marginals.

They feel that the Tories SNP attack is working with those people and think (wrongly IMO) they can deal with the after effects later.

I thought too that they'd given up on Scotland. So, in that case he's in Scotland because that's the last place people would expect him to go and say that stuff if he's given up on it?

Is that it? (I missed my calling as a spin doctor, obviously.)

 

[redsquirrel]

I thought too that they'd given up on Scotland. So, in that case he's in Scotland because that's the last place people would expect him to go and say that stuff if he's given up on it?

Could be that they made the plan some time in advance and don't want to change it? I know that sounds daft but I think we can sometimes give these people more cunning than they deserve.

 

[danny la rouge]

Danny I really don't think this is about Scotland at all. I've seen a few TV vox pops in the English battlegrounds in which Lab voters have expressed how concerned they are about "Salmond/Sturgeon having control of our government". I'm pretty sure that their focus group findings also told the same story and terrified them.

Sure, that's what I thought this morning. And the question that follows from that is "how do you backtrack on what he said about no deals of any kind whatsoever"?

So then I think, surely they're not just hoping it'll go away.

But they really are, aren't they? They think It'll just be fine.

 

[danny la rouge]

Could be that they made the plan some time in advance and don't want to change it? I know that sounds daft but I think we can sometimes give these people more cunning than they deserve.

I think that's it.

"Just go and say it. Remember: happy warrior! And it's for the 10 OClock News, not the locals".

 

[redsquirrel]

But they really are, aren't they? They think It'll just be fine.

I think so, ultimately I think despite everything these people are so isolated in their bubble that they don't really understand what motivated voters (or particularly care).

I mean look at the Better Together campaign, the Yes to AV campaign, all the anti-UKIP stuff - all if it not just useless but actually achieving the opposite effects.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yep, good point.

 

[brogdale]

Sure, that's what I thought this morning. And the question that follows from that is "how do you backtrack on what he said about no deals of any kind whatsoever"?

So then I think, surely they're not just hoping it'll go away.

But they really are, aren't they? They think It'll just be fine.

I think that Miliband really believes that Sturgeon has painted herself into a corner...she can't do anything other than support him.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think that Miliband really believes that Sturgeon has painted herself into a corner...she can't do anything other than support him.

He must realise that if there's legislation he needs the nats to vote for and they won't, it'll have to be shelved, if there's no formal deal and they're free to vote or not vote as they see fit.

Not that there'll be much, mind. But there'll be some.

 

[brogdale]

He must realise that if there's legislation he needs the nats to vote for and they won't, it'll have to be shelved, if there's no formal deal and they're free to vote or not vote as they see fit.

Not that there'll be much, mind. But there'll be some.

True enough, but those would be the problems of power...all this is about desperately trying to achieve that power.

 

[8ball]

I think that Miliband really believes that Sturgeon has painted herself into a corner...she can't do anything other than support him.

I think he might be right too.

 

[Plumdaff]

I think he might be right too.

Of course. But only Labour face a long term existential threat if the next government is a Tory minority. That's their massive miscalculation.

 

[DownwardDog]

Arguably they can pretty much rely on this without any sort of deal, because if the Tories fail to get a QS through and then Labour do too, that just leaves another election, which I'm assuming would favour the Tories, so I can't see that it's in the SNP's interest that Labour don't get to form a govt.

It's much easier to bang the drum for another referendum, which is surely the medium term goal, with a Conservative government in Westminster dishing out neoliberal austerity. So why wouldn't they want that?

 

[DownwardDog]

So, is Ed in Scotland to say "no deal with the SNP. I'd rather not govern" again because he hopes it'll go down well with the soft portion of the SNP vote? Or because he's said it now, so he can't back down? Or what?

Even if he does go back on it, so what? Politicians will say all sorts of shit to get elected and then worry about the consequences later. Their planning horizon is about 20 minutes. Ed will then have five years to make people forget the butthurt by making benefits more complicated and having his photo taken stood next to wind turbines.

 

[killer b]

blah blah

 

[8ball]

Of course. But only Labour face a long term existential threat if the next government is a Tory minority.

I think a Tory minority would be worse for the Tories long-term for most plausible scenarios.

 

[Plumdaff]

I think a Tory minority would be worse for the Tories long-term for most plausible scenarios.

If many Labour, SNP, Plaid and Green voters end up thinking that the Labour Party would rather a Tory government than some progressive alighment they are surely fucked.

 

[8ball]

If many Labour, SNP, Plaid and Green voters end up thinking that the Labour Party would rather a Tory government than some progressive alighment they are surely fucked.

What are they going to vote? Tory?

In any case, it's not about rejecting a progressive alignment, it's about not repeating the recent referendum.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

He must realise that if there's legislation he needs the nats to vote for and they won't, it'll have to be shelved, if there's no formal deal and they're free to vote or not vote as they see fit.

Not that there'll be much, mind. But there'll be some.

It gives freedom to also pass, say, a Trident renewal bill though - the Tories can't vote against that - who needs the SNP in that circumstance? There's no formal agreement after all. It's a risky strategy, a minority government...

 

[Sprocket.]

Is history repeating itself yet again?
1974, two general elections in eight months, now that really would be a waste of money!

 

[SE25]

Got round to watching QT after turning it off 5 mins into Cameron's part. So many Tories in the audience. Even more people so sure that their opinions are fact. Fucking wind up.

That business owner going on about that fucking note can get to fuck

 

[William of Walworth]

I deliberately didn't watch QT for similar reasons .. audience members often wind me up even more than the politicos, and there does sound like there were a lot of audience Tories from what people here have posted.

Thanks for that earlier link though danny la rouge (and chilango )

No comments myself on what Miliband said because eveyone earlier up this thread including you, have pretty much said the necessary .

 

[William of Walworth]

Can we talk about the NHS now??

 

[danny la rouge]

Can we talk about the NHS now??

You can, but it's devolved on Scotland, so apparently I'm not allowed to because of EVEL.

 

[William of Walworth]

(As in Wales btw)

Just thought not in any way too seriously, it might be the only thing to help Labour more generally at the moment.

 

[brogdale]

Of course. But only Labour face a long term existential threat if the next government is a Tory minority. That's their massive miscalculation.

Is it?

Given the usual caveats about polling, what numbers demonstrate any possibility of a tory minority getting through their QS? There is a reason why the vermin seem desperate and much of their campaign appears to have been a surrogate leadership contest.

 

[danny la rouge]

(As in Wales btw)

Separatist.

 

[treelover]

Why the media emphasis on the possible LP/SNP lash up, why not the perhaps more controversial Con/Ukip lash up?

rhetorical question..

 

[brogdale]

Why the media emphasis on the possible LP/SNP lash up, why not the perhaps more controversial Con/Ukip lash up?

rhetorical question..

probably because UKIP would need some MPs for such a thing to occur.

 

[killer b]

'cause it isn't on the cards, except in the fevered imaginations of the hard of thinking.

 

[Belushi]

This election really hasn't gone the way UKIP thought, I wouldn't be surprised if they came away with no seats.