I continually go back and re-read stuff from the key period in question.
I do not suggest that any perfect and complete pictures of the future were presented here. But on the key question of timing at a crucial stage, large chunks of this country got the right idea about the sense of immediacy in a way the government and SAGE utterly failed to.
I was cautious and balanced at the time. I did not immediately reject the 'we are 4 weeks behind Italy', I was skeptical about the claim and I repeatedly questioned it without declaring that they were most certainly wrong. But others on this forum and elsewhere already figured out that the reality was that we were 2 weeks behind Italy. It was not that hard to get that right. SAGE likely got it wrong because the UK data collection systems were ill prepared for this pandemic, and the modelling was imperfect. Someone probably made a trivial mistake somewhere in there, and the collective wisdom of SAGE did not spot it and correct it in a timely manner. It did not take them all that long to figure out that they got it wrong, but the consequences were still a disaster for the timing of the UK response. And there was still the tedious process of them trying to save some face and make a series of corrections to their initial timing prediction instead of just accepting the obvious reality in one go. And they were so bloody late at getting round to estimating these things in the first place, it really is painful to see how far behind the curve they were for so long.
March 10th:
SAGE 14 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 10 March 2020
March 13th. The first correction, with some detail about why they were wrong before:
SAGE 15 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 13 March 2020
March 16th:
March 18th:
This was an avoidable tragedy, it was quite avoidable even without the various massive benefits of hindsight. The picture I have of this period is still incomplete, eg the exact combination of data & modelling failures that caused them to get it so wrong, when people without access to the same data or models were able to figure it out more effectively.
It is still my intention to take a nice break in June, and I do not intend to convince everyone of this case I am making. And I am biased against small, closed groups of experts having too much of a monopoly over things. Collective wisdom requires a different political setup and a much broader array of participants, and a greater willingness to make rapid corrections, challenge assumptions, challenge the confines of the orthodox approach. I will not go on about this further right now, I just have a few other issues to comment on in a few other threads and then I get my break, and everyone gets a break from me