The Dominic Cummings file

[mauvais]

It's less pompous moralising about doing something more and more a weary (and wary) cynicism about the regular excitement about spectacles we have no control over and won't get anything out of.

Look, I'm angry at what Cummings did. I'm enjoying watching the shitshow, but the idea that we can win somehow?

Even with a weary cynicist's hat on, do you think it's completely without consequence? For example does it not degrade the public's faith in government and particularly the Tories? Is there nothing to be gained from that?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Johnson will not be happy with this, approval rating drops 20% in 4 days, he likes being popular.

Boris Johnson’s approval rating has dropped to -1% after he refused to sack Dominic Cummings for driving to Durham during lockdown.

According to Savanta, a coronavirus data tracker which looks at how the UK population is responding to the pandemic, the Prime Minister’s rating was previously +19% just four days ago. It states that the overall government approval rate is now at -2%, having dropped 16 points in a day.

Johnson’s approval rating is now also the lowest of all the individuals examined, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock’s the second lowest at 4%. Mr Cummings’ rating has not been tracked.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s approval rating also lifted to 12% on Monday, while Chancellor Rishi Sunak dropped from 35% four days ago to 20%.

Boris Johnson's approval rating drops by 20 points since Cummings saga

The overall government approval rate is now also at -2%, having dropped 16 points in a day.

metro.co.uk

 

[Roadkill]

Wragg hath spake:



So too has one set of polls, and killer b is right: they're not good:



edit - bugger. cupid_stunt got there first!

 

[teuchter]

I disagree. I think all of it would have been soon forgotten if he'd played it straight and fallen on his sword. Can you even remember the names of the other lockdown-breakers who've variously resigned? Of course, his is a bigger scalp for those who don't like him or the Tories, and they'd have made more of it for a while but it would still have fizzled out soon, enabling a quiet comeback perhaps next year. The silly lies have hugely magnified a situation that would otherwise have soon blown over, like you suggest.

Let's see.

I remember how excited everyone got when BJ prorogued parliament with people suggesting the country was going to go into meltdown over this blatant disregard for blah blah, but then he went and comfortably won the general election.

If in a week or two Cummings is still there and the papers have moved on to other things, I'll come back and quote my own posts saying it'll blow over, and if not I'll just not say anything.

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

Done on Sunday. Crafted one from the perspective of a Tory...apologies for the sick bag cringeworthy asides


Dear

As my MP, I am contacting you to register my disappointment at the Prime Minister's decision to retain the services of Mr Dominic Cummings.

In today's briefing, an emphasis was placed on whether Mr Cummings instincts were those of a father, encouraging the public to empathise with his child care dilemma. As a senior official in government, it is clear that there were any number of alternatives available to him, and this will be seen as sophistry.

However, whether or not Mr Cummings actions were reasonable, or conformed to the letter of lockdown, misses the point. His actions will at least be perceived by a great number of people as breaking lockdown, and as tacit authority to do likewise. This is something that should at least have been anticipated, and for this reason alone, his actions show a lack of judgement which not only undermines the efforts the public are making but any claim he might make to being a valuable advisor.

Worse, Boris Johnson's support of his colleague shows that he puts the advice Mr Cummings gives above an inevitable erosion of covid precautions. This makes him look weak, and by his extension, the government look weak, at a time when strong leadership is vital. This seems not only ill-advised but politically inept. By all means, support his friend and colleague by showing understanding (if it is, in fact, the case) why Mr Cummings acted impetuously, but then show character and vital objectivity in reiterating the importance of adhering to universal rules.

This could have been a game-changing moment for Mr Johnson - an ideal opportunity to reinforce the lockdown when it is crumbling, a chance to show he does not need Mr Cummings as a crutch, and that the Tory party is, if nothing else, a fair-minded institution that plays by the rules.

Instead, he came across as a mendacious fool that no one believes and no one takes seriously.

I urge you as a backbencher that has shown himself capable of independent thought, to join those few brave Tories prepared to voice the opinion of the vast majority of cross-party thinking on this, and by doing so, claw back some semblance of credibility for your party and our government

sincerely

Perfect!

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

 

[gosub]

Lots I believe. We only hear about the big ones in the news but there'll be hundreds of others. There have been police spot-checks set up on the A5 at Kilburn every weekend that I have seen so there must be dozens of others.

Regardless of what everyone else has been up to, they're not senior government advisors who had a hand in making the very rules he's been breaking. "Do as I say, not as I do" is always a shit look for those in powerful positions.

Its not just a shit look, In dealing with pandemic, its almost as much about psychology as it is about virology. Assuming a second spike, how now to manage the 20% that don't think covid is real plus the millions that now believe themselves to be immune on top of arseholes who believe in exceptionalism?

 

[teuchter]

Johnson will not be happy with this, approval rating drops 20% in 4 days, he likes being popular.

Boris Johnson's approval rating drops by 20 points since Cummings saga

The overall government approval rate is now also at -2%, having dropped 16 points in a day.

metro.co.uk

They say that he was at 19% 4 days ago but note also that he was at 8% 15 days ago, wobbling around at 6-8% for the past couple of weeks with the 19% being something of an anomaly.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

They say that he was at 19% 4 days ago but note also that he was at 8% 15 days ago, wobbling around at 6-8% for the past couple of weeks with the 19% being something of an anomaly.

Two words for that, I reckon: furlough extension.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The number of Tory MPs calling for him to go is slowly growing, 28 now, a roll-call in the link below

Every Conservative MP who has condemned Dominic Cummings as lockdown row escalates

A rolling list of every Conservative MP that has broken party ranks to condemn Dominic Cummings. There are widespread calls for the senior aide’s r...

www.politicshome.com

 

[killer b]

Let's see.

I remember how excited everyone got when BJ prorogued parliament with people suggesting the country was going to go into meltdown over this blatant disregard for blah blah, but then he went and comfortably won the general election.

If in a week or two Cummings is still there and the papers have moved on to other things, I'll come back and quote my own posts saying it'll blow over, and if not I'll just not say anything.

How do we judge if it's blown over? Poll ratings back up to pre-Cumgate (urgh) levels? Or just him remaining in place? If it's the second, then you'll most likely be back here quoting your own posts, but I'm not sure that's enough. I'm not sure a week or two is long enough to judge what impact this will have.

 

[Spymaster]

If in a week or two Cummings is still there and the papers have moved on to other things, I'll come back and quote my own posts saying it'll blow over, and if not I'll just not say anything.

You should get a job as a political advisor. There'll be one going shortly.

 

[mauvais]

How do we judge if it's blown over? Poll ratings back up to pre-Cumgate (urgh) levels? Or just him remaining in place? If it's the second, then you'll most likely be back here quoting your own posts, but I'm not sure that's enough. I'm not sure a week or two is long enough to judge what impact this will have.

Is it fair to say that this is ultimately the kind of sequence of events that has done in prior governments? I feel like this sort of thing, whilst not individually catastrophic, was responsible for whittling down Blair and Brown's popularity, to say nothing of the blue Tories before them. OTOH what really did for Brown was probably the economic crash, so perhaps it's overstating it.

 

[killer b]

Is it fair to say that this is ultimately the kind of sequence of events that has done in prior governments? I feel like this sort of thing, whilst not individually catastrophic, was responsible for whittling down Blair and Brown's popularity, to say nothing of the blue Tories before them. OTOH what really did for Brown was probably the economic crash, so perhaps it's overstating it.

I was thinking about his response to the Skripal poisoning being the key turning point of the Corbyn project. I didn't spot it at the time, but looking back the collapse started there.

 

[wtfftw]

There's an economic crash coming tho right? So maybe something different will rise out of those ashes (and we won't need a bloody revolution).


I mean, I don't think so but more of the same is such a shitty prospect.

 

[teuchter]

How do we judge if it's blown over? Poll ratings back up to pre-Cumgate (urgh) levels? Or just him remaining in place? If it's the second, then you'll most likely be back here quoting your own posts, but I'm not sure that's enough. I'm not sure a week or two is long enough to judge what impact this will have.

I dunno, I'll just have to make a judgement on the extent to which it's blown over enough for me to feel smug enough to quote myself for it to be worth the bother.

 

[Kaka Tim]

whatever happens it has caused permanent damage to the government. The arrogance, hypocrisy and mendacity of cummings - and johnson's desperate and humiliating attempts to protect him is entwined with the bigger story of their criminal mishandling of the pandemic. That is not a"bubble" story that will blow over - it is the sort of narrative that permanently trashes people trust in a government. Their credibility is shot.
John Majors government never recovered from black wednesday in 1992- which occurred a mere 6 months after he won a majority.
Huge numbers of people - ordinary people, working class people, people who pay little or no attention to politics generally - are furious. They feel betrayed and spat upon by these shysters. Jackanory bullshit time from cummings will not change that - it just magnifies the offence.
I cant see how cummings can stay - and Johnson wont last without him - his authority is gone and he is so palaalby not up to the job. Hes like like a deflated bag of blubber - trump with the aninmainting fury removed and nothing left but half hearted waffle.
As i said earlier - the tories plan/hope will be to ditch johnson once the emergency is over and present themselves as a new government. If could very well work (e.g major replacing thatcher in 1990).

 

[killer b]

I dunno, I'll just have to make a judgement on the extent to which it's blown over enough for me to feel smug enough to quote myself for it to be worth the bother.

I've mentally bookmarked a couple of your posts for a smug 'like' in a few months / years, if things go badly (and I remember).

 

[two sheds]

whatever happens it has caused permanent damage to the government. The arrogance, hypocrisy and mendacity of cummings and johnsons desperate and humiliating attempts to protect him is entwined with the bigger story of their criminal mishandling of the pandemic. That is not "bubble" story that will blow over - it is the sort of narrative that permanently trashes people trust in a government. Their credibility is shot.
John Majors government never recovered from black wednesday in 1992- which occurred a mere 6 months after he won a majority.
Huge numbers of people - ordinary people, working class people, people who pay little or no attention to politics generally - are furious. They feel betrayed and spat upon by these shysters. Jackanory bullshit time from cummings will not change that - it just magnifies the offence.
I cant see how cummings can stay - and Johnson wont last without him - his authority is gone and he is so palaalby not up to the job. Hes like like a deflated bag of blubber - trump with the aninmainting fury removed and nothing left but half hearted waffle.
As i said earlier - the tories plan/hope will be to ditch johnson once the emergency is over and present themselves as a new government. If could very well work (e.g major replacing thatcher in 1990).

It'll at least be quoted by most people each time they're caught disregarding lockdown-type rules.

 

[Roadkill]

whatever happens it has caused permanent damage to the government. The arrogance, hypocrisy and mendacity of cummings and johnsons desperate and humiliating attempts to protect him is entwined with the bigger story of their criminal mishandling of the pandemic. That is not "bubble" story that will blow over - it is the sort of narrative that permanently trashes people trust in a government. Their credibility is shot.
John Majors government never recovered from black wednesday in 1992- which occurred a mere 6 months after he won a majority.
Huge numbers of people - ordinary people, working class people, people who pay little or no attention to politics generally - are furious. They feel betrayed and spat upon by these shysters. Jackanory bullshit time from cummings will not change that - it just magnifies the offence.
I cant see how cummings can stay - and Johnson wont last without him - his authority is gone and he is so palaalby not up to the job. Hes like like a deflated bag of blubber - trump with the aninmainting fury removed and nothing left but half hearted waffle.
As i said earlier - the tories plan/hope will be to ditch johnson once the emergency is over and present themselves as a new government. If could very well work (e.g major replacing thatcher in 1990).

Agreed. That said, I suspect Johnson would have ended up being thrown overboard when he'd outlived his usefulness but Cummings would have stayed on. He's Gove's ally, after all, and Gove has form for knifing people. If I'm right about that, this has driven a coach and horses through their strategy by seriously damaging 'Dom' at the same time as weakening BJ.

edit - why did I write 'people'? Gove has form for knifing Johnson, never mind anyone else!

 

[frogwoman]

As soon as a covid vaccine is found I'm sure Hancock will turn his attention to the growing crisis in opthalmology with 100,000 drive-in eye tests at Barnard Castle by the end of 2022

 

[cupid_stunt]

Here's an interesting read, where a criminal barrister considers the case.

There seems to be at least a prima facie case that there has been a violation of the regulations insofar as the Durham journey is concerned, and that is saying nothing about the various other escapades that seem to have ensued once there; undertaking a 60-minute driving test may well raise more than a few legal eyebrows, for example.

The future of ‘Cummingsgate’, and particularly any prosecutorial response, clearly remains to be seen. Whilst contemplating a trial may well have a whiff of prematurity, Cummings would bear an evidential burden in explaining his actions. One would presume that he would give evidence on his own behalf to that end. One can also speculate as to his performance as a witness but, judging from his performance at the Rose Garden matinee, he is certainly reminiscent of many a defence lawyer’s bread and butter ‘punter’.

Cummings and goings: Did Dom break the law? - Legal Cheek

Criminal barrister Syam Soni casts a legal eye over Durham saga

www.legalcheek.com

 

[rutabowa]

if i see someone write "cummings and goings" one more time I am going to flip.

 

[Part 2]

For anyone who missed it, here's Gove laughing at the absurd story he's trying to back up.



And here's someone who looked into the autism tweets. platinumsage was posting it about 4 hours after the first tweet.

Don't let anyone fool you with the 'autism' excuse for Dominic Cummings' wrongdoing. It isn't true - Vox Political

I had not been aware of this, but if you […]

voxpoliticalonline.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

The Metro has picked-up on the story about when he edited his blog post.

But the Wayback Machine – a digital archive showing what webpages looked like at specific dates – shows this quote was added between April and May this year. As recently as April 9, no mention of coronavirus is made.
----
The blog’s own sitemap shows the edit was made on April 14 – the same day Mr Cummings returned to work in London from Durham.

Dominic Cummings 'edited blog to make it look like he warned of coronavirus'

The internet never forgets.

metro.co.uk

 

[two sheds]

I liked the first tweet under the Gove video:

Touching the nose is a sign that someone is lying. But give him the benefit of the doubt. Could just be the cocaine.

 

[editor]

 

[Lord Camomile]

For anyone who missed it, here's Gove laughing at the absurd story he's trying to back up.



And here's someone who looked into the autism tweets. platinumsage was posting it about 4 hours after the first tweet.

Don't let anyone fool you with the 'autism' excuse for Dominic Cummings' wrongdoing. It isn't true - Vox Political

I had not been aware of this, but if you […]

voxpoliticalonline.com

"I don't know how you're going to get out of this but it's going to be fun" - not a fan of the guy, but jumping in with that as Gove is mid-sentence that was funny

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Metro has picked-up on the story about when he edited his blog post.

Dominic Cummings 'edited blog to make it look like he warned of coronavirus'

The internet never forgets.

metro.co.uk

Wow. For someone so supposedly clever, that's a spectacularly stupid thing to do.

 

[Combustible]

He very pointedly said that she threw up but didn't have "coughing or a fever". But he then got coronavirus, in small building made of blocks, and his wife and child didn't get it but the child had to be taken to hospital after throwing up and having a fever. I'm pretty sure he himself also then threw up once he had recovered from Covid but I was getting a bit confused by that point.

The whole crux of his argument was that there was a reasonable chance that both him and his wife would be incapable of looking after their son because of Covid, and therefore it was prudent that he go to Durham where he could give the child to his niece if necessary. He cannot have it both ways, by downplaying her symptoms it makes his hypothetical scenario even less likely, reducing the justification for his actions even further.