The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[gosub]

There's about 30m people working in the UK, 50k is roughly 1 in 600. Fifty thousand is bullshit Tory nonsense with no basis in reality.

If it WAS 50000 people processing these forms on behalf of the Government (which it isn't) how many people is that whose job it is to actually fill them out?

 

[editor]

There's about 30m people working in the UK, 50k is roughly 1 in 600. Fifty thousand is bullshit Tory nonsense with no basis in reality.

The government hasn't denied the figures but seeing as you seem to be better informed, what will the numbers be and what are you basing that estimate on?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The government hasn't denied the figures but seeing as you seem to be better informed, what will the numbers be and what are you basing that estimate on?

In case you haven’t noticed, the government are the Tories.

 

[editor]

In case you haven’t noticed, the government are the Tories.

Ah, so you think the real figures would be higher then?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Ah, so you think the real figures would be higher then?

Why are you making stuff up?

 

[Proper Tidy]

I don't really understand this thread. More is better isn't it.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I don't really understand this thread. More is better isn't it.

You would think so, but ed doesn’t agree so has posted up a high number so he can be outraged about it and encourage others to feel the same, even though sadly it’s clearly bullshit anyway.

 

[editor]

I don't really understand this thread. More is better isn't it.

I thought Brexit was all about less pen-pushing bureaucracy, no?

 

[editor]

You would think so, but ed doesn’t agree so has posted up a high number so he can be outraged about it and encourage others to feel the same, even though sadly it’s clearly bullshit anyway.

I posted a number that has been widely quoted from several sources. If you have more accurate information from more informed sources, please provide it. I have asked before.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I thought Brexit was all about less pen-pushing bureaucracy, no?

More about democratic control over bureaucracy than actual volume of bureaucrats I would have thought. Still think lots of fairly low level admin jobs is a good thing

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I posted a number that has been widely quoted from several sources. If you have more accurate information from more informed sources, please provide it. I have asked before.

All those sources come back to the exact same point; a Tory briefing. If that is what you wish to base argument on be my guest. I happen to think the Tories are liars and don’t take what they say at face value.

 

[editor]

More about democratic control over bureaucracy than actual volume of bureaucrats I would have thought. Still think lots of fairly low level admin jobs is a good thing

How many more would you like? 200,000 extra jobs? And ultimately, who do you think pays for these extra jobs and employment costs?

 

[Proper Tidy]

How many more would you like? 200,000 extra jobs? And ultimately, who do you think pays for these extra jobs and employment costs?

Honestly I think you need to have a rethink about this argument Ed, cos it's a bit tory. I'd take 2,000,000 jobs and perfectly happy for them to be public sector (suspect will be outsourced to private tho)

 

[editor]

Honestly I think you need to have a rethink about this argument Ed, cos it's a bit tory. I'd take 2,000,000 jobs and perfectly happy for them to be public sector (suspect will be outsourced to private tho)

Brexit is Tory. Increasing bureaucracy with tens of thousands of low level, low pay, outsourced jobs isn't something I thought I'd see you advocating either.

Anyway, I'm out of this thread. When someone starts calling me Tory then I know I'm wasting my time.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

Yep, no freedom of movement means your movement ain't free.

 

[Flavour]

anarchists sharing mail links unironically and editor against public sector job creation. bit weird this one.

 

[Supine]

There is nothing right wing about thinking a load of shit boring and pointless jobs is a bad thing.

 

[Proper Tidy]

There is nothing right wing about thinking a load of shit boring and pointless jobs is a bad thing.

You still a libdem?

 

[Supine]

You still a libdem?

Yawn

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yawn

No more questions your honour

 

[editor]

From the Telegraph

Covid-19 has completely sunk the chances of a swift EU trade deal
JEREMY WARNER MAY 12, 2020

Few will have noticed it amid the destruction of the Covid-19 pandemic, but a third round of trade talks with the European Union began this week, and all the early signs are that Brexit’s irresistible force is again running slap bang into the EU’s immovable object.

On the detail as well as the principle, the two are still miles apart. Each side assumes the other will cave at the last moment, but in neither camp is there any evidence to support this view.

As things stand, we are heading for a train crash and the re-emergence of our old friend – the “no-deal” or “cliff edge” Brexit.

A cynical view is that this is no longer of any real importance since the economic damage from the Covid-19 crisis is already so great that any further destruction from Brexit will be barely noticed.

Covid allows a clean-break Brexit to be snuck through under cover of the wider nuclear bomb blast. By the time the dust settles, it will be impossible to distinguish the wounds of Brexit from the multitude of other economic injuries inflicted by the virus.

All the same, to be adding to Europe’s economic distress at such a time is to pile Mount Pelion on Mount Ossa. The talks have to be given time to succeed. This is looking virtually impossible on the present schedule, where legally, Britain has to ask for an extension by the end of next month to avoid the possibility of leaving without any kind of a deal at the end of the year.

Engulfed by the pandemic, there are rather bigger fish for everyone to fry than Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Under prior instructions from their political masters, negotiators on both sides of the fence exist in a bubble all of their own, seemingly oblivious to the storm raging outside – yesterday’s battles being fought against the backdrop of a world in transformation.

Past obsessions have been rendered virtually irrelevant by the Covid-19 threat, yet they persist unperturbed amid the confusion of Zoom calls; it is the curse of David Frost and Michel Barnier, the British and EU chief negotiators respectively, to carry on regardless.

A deal to extend the transition in light of the crisis had been all but agreed at official level. The EU was to have spared the UK’s blushes by proposing it, rather than the other way around. This would have allowed the UK government to present the concession as a favour to the EU, rather than a climbdown.

But then Dominic Cummings, the Prime Minister’s chief adviser, returned and the plan, concocted by underlings while he and Boris Johnson were laid out on their sick beds, was scuppered.

In any game of bluff, you have to be prepared for your hand to be called, The uncomfortable truth is that the UK still doesn’t have the cards for that kind of game. No one, but no one, is preparing right now for World Trade Organisation terms of trade with Europe. The merits and demerits of a clean break Brexit are so far down the list of business concerns that they barely register.

Even to secure a Canadian-style free trade agreement is plainly going to take a lot longer than the present transition allows for, and to include meaningful free trade in services, which given the economic destruction of Covid the UK will desperately need, will take longer still.

There are, of course, multiple elephant traps in a longer transition, the most obvious of which is that once the talks lose their urgency, the EU will have no incentive to continue with them at all. It is also remotely possible that continued budgetary contributions could make the UK part liable for Europe’s planned one trillion euro reconstruction fund.

Signing off on free trade deals with others, including the US, will in any case be impossible as long as the UK remains in the single market.

A rather less persuasive argument against extending the transition is that Britain needs the flexibility that freedom from Europe’s acquis communautaire might allow in order to respond appropriately to the challenges of the post-Covid-19 economy.

Economic Intelligence newsletter SUBSCRIBER (article)
Quite what that freedom might be used for is not defined, but if it is state aid, protectionist tariffs and capital controls, then Britain would be making itself into a pariah state that few would want to trade with if it went that route. Even when free of EU subjugation, Britain will in large part have to mirror the EU in these regards. Anything else would be incompatible with the “Global Britain” status the Government aspires to.

Boris Johnson sees the UK’s forthcoming presidency of the G7 as an opportunity to champion a new multilateralism in economic, trade and health policy. This is a commendable aspiration, yet you cannot create a new, rules based world order unless willing to abide by those rules.

Finally there is the argument that the EU is in its death throws anyway, so the sooner we are out from under its yoke the better, whatever the temporary disruptions to trade. If this were true, it might indeed pay dividends to rush the departure. But, though we might wish to see Europe returned to a continent of independent sovereign states, it’s not today’s direction of travel. As Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, puts it, “Europe has lots of problems, but the idea that it’s institutions are about to fall apart is for the birds”.

There is, of course, always the outside possibility that a deal will be done before the transition expires, or at least that a series of mini-deals are done that allow for things to keep operating relatively smoothly. We must nevertheless continue to aspire to something more than the bare bones. With a bit of luck, the shock of the pandemic, together with our shared experience of it, ought to knock heads together, making both parties more accommodating in mutual desire to heal our broken economies. But it needs time.

 

[Helen Back]

Well I for one won't be eating any food imported from the US. I'll be paying very close attention to the country of origin and it'll be either UK or EU only for me - IF we're still going to get any food at all Europe, that is.

 

[editor]

More Brexit lies

The government has privately conceded there will be post-Brexit checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea, months after Boris Johnson insisted there would be no such trade barriers.

In a letter to the executive office in Stormont the government confirmed there would be border control posts in three ports, Belfast, Warrenpoint and Larne.

Declan Kearney, one of the two junior ministers in the executive office, the regional equivalent of the Cabinet Office in London, confirmed the details at a select committee session in Belfast on Wednesday.

Brexit will mean checks on goods crossing Irish Sea, government admits

Ministers’ letter confirms border control posts at ports of Belfast, Warrenpoint and Larne

www.theguardian.com

 

[philosophical]

Belfast, Warrenpoint and Larne will be where checks are supposed to happen.
So the land border on the island of Ireland will remain as it is now, but the brexit as was voted for is betrayed.
In addition Boris Johnson lied about checks between different parts of the UK.
So it is not getting brexit done but getting Tory power secured.
I am still hoping that eventually the EU tells the UK to fuck off in as many ways they can.

 

[Teaboy]

Well I for one won't be eating any food imported from the US. I'll be paying very close attention to the country of origin and it'll be either UK or EU only for me - IF we're still going to get any food at all Europe, that is.

Its a difficult one. In some ways I think if food is clearly labelled than the consumer has a choice. In other ways I look at our general level of health here in the UK and its terrible and getting worse. One of the factors is allowing capitalism to run rampant in food supply and cheap shit is plentiful and marketed aggressively. I strongly believe our baseline health in this country has in part contributed to the high covid-19 death rate. Its hard to think it'll get any better if US companies are allowed a free rein.

The other worry is that if local producers are priced out by US competitors who work to different (lower?) standards than they'll either adopt those standards or go out of business. So it may not be as simple as choosing not to eat US labelled food it might be that's how all food becomes apart from expensive organic etc food for those who can afford it.

 

[gosub]

Belfast, Warrenpoint and Larne will be where checks are supposed to happen.
So the land border on the island of Ireland will remain as it is now, but the brexit as was voted for is betrayed.
In addition Boris Johnson lied about checks between different parts of the UK.
So it is not getting brexit done but getting Tory power secured.
I am still hoping that eventually the EU tells the UK to fuck off in as many ways they can.

I think the EU are kind of hoping UK will ask for an extension But Brexit happens. It would be nuts for the UK not to.

 

[two sheds]

Now here's a surprise, looks like Boris and his pals were lying who'd have seen that coming

Boris Johnson facing backlash after scrapping pledge to keep chlorinated chicken out of British supermarkets

Government accused of not standing up to Donald Trump’s trade negotiators

www.independent.co.uk

Downing Street signalled on Thursday that imports of lower-standard American food were now on the table in the negotiations, a reversal of a longstanding promise.

As recently as January, Theresa Villiers, then environment secretary, reiterated that “we will not be importing chlorinated chicken” – but since then US trade chiefs have put pressure on the UK to change its position, leading the government to change tack.

While the government’s own best-case scenarios says an agreement with the US would lead to a tiny boost to the economy of just 0.16 per cent of GDP, failing to sign such a deal would be highly politically embarrassing for Boris Johnson, who has presented such an arrangement as part of the alternative to EU membership.
...
Ministers are said to be open to giving access to the controversial US food products, that also include hormone-fed beef and crops treated with 82 different pesticides banned in the EU, but applying tariffs on them to protect UK-based farmers from competition.

Under the so-called “dual tariff” system being looked at, American agribusiness would be allowed to sell goods in the UK even if they were not complying with the same production standards as British farmers – as long as they paid the tariff.

Some ministers, such as free-marketer Liz Truss, want to go further, the Daily Telegraph reports – and gradually reduce these tariffs to zero over 10 years, giving farmers time to adjust to the new normal.

“Who’s to guarantee that ministers won’t lower the tariffs later on under pressure from Donald Trump and the US industry lobbies?” said Greenpeace’s Mr Sauven.
...
At the end of January the US secretary of state Mike Pompeo took to the British media to explain that the issue of access for American food producers was important to US interests.

“We need to be open and honest about competitiveness. We need to make sure we don’t use food safety as a ruse to try and protect a particular industry,” he said, ahead of the UK’s change of policy.

The US government also officially considers country-of-origin labelling a barrier to trade, suggesting it is likely to push for such practices to be outlawed in a free trade agreement. This would make it impossible for consumers to tell whether their product had been sourced from the US.

The US Department for Trade says it has “consistently raised concerns” about country of origin labelling at the World Trade Organisation, notably because of “the potential to favour select countries, and the impact on US exports”.

 

[ska invita]

The FT had a piece yesterday saying that there are many voices around government who are arguing that the economic collapse of Covid is the perfect cover to "bury" the economic hit of a No Deal - it'll just add some billions to the debt but the pain can be hidden within the bigger picture.

ETA: here it is

Covid crisis likely to mask economic fallout of no-deal Brexit | Free to read

Economists question why UK would want to inflict further pain on businesses

www.ft.com

 

[two sheds]

The FT had a piece yesterday saying that there are many voices around government who are arguing that the economic collapse of Covid is the perfect cover to "bury" the economic hit of a No Deal - it'll just add some billions to the debt but the pain can be hidden within the bigger picture.

ETA: here it is

Covid crisis likely to mask economic fallout of no-deal Brexit | Free to read

Economists question why UK would want to inflict further pain on businesses

www.ft.com

Yep, continued austerity for nurses and essential workers and the rest of us but good times ahead for tory donors and hedge funds and the rest of them

 

[Raheem]

The FT had a piece yesterday saying that there are many voices around government who are arguing that the economic collapse of Covid is the perfect cover to "bury" the economic hit of a No Deal - it'll just add some billions to the debt but the pain can be hidden within the bigger picture.

ETA: here it is

Covid crisis likely to mask economic fallout of no-deal Brexit | Free to read

Economists question why UK would want to inflict further pain on businesses

www.ft.com

Key phrase from that article: "Some economists".

In terms of government debt, maybe a case can be made that it's going to be massive so who cares how massive? But it's not realistic to suppose you can have thousands upon thousands of jobs moving to the EU without anyone noticing.