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Indeed. For example, in my field, the EU have declared that some other regimes (eg Bermuda, Switzerland) have “equivalence”. It’s a completely different set of regulations to the strict ones we have to abide by, but the EU have pragmatically decided “good enough”
It's a mistake to assume that what's good for one trading partner is good for another, though.

You have to wonder if a hidden part of the story is a small, inexperienced UK negotiating team, at odds with civil servants and as desperate as the EU to get an agreement signed, allowing itself to be misled by verbal reassurances from the other side. "Yeah, yeah, it will be just like Canada."
 
It's a mistake to assume that what's good for one trading partner is good for another, though.

You have to wonder if a hidden part of the story is a small, inexperienced UK negotiating team, at odds with civil servants and as desperate as the EU to get an agreement signed, allowing itself to be misled by verbal reassurances from the other side. "Yeah, yeah, it will be just like Canada."
i wouldn't trust the uk negotiators to negotiate their way out of a paper bag
 
It's 43% and it's a falling share (down from 55% in 2006). Plus if you take, say, Germany about 7% of everything they make comes here and accounts for 3% of their GDP. The idea that this isn't significant and tariffs would be bump in the road is miles off the mark.

But the wider point is this - a deal that provides flexibility within the broader regulatory framework overwhelmingly suits all parties. Ultras on both sides will want to attack this but the dynamic has sifted against them.
i can readily imagine johnson snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. lest we forget, he's the man who returned with an even worse deal than theresa may got.
 
Is there any likelihood of TTIP getting resurrected? Seems like that would matter more than what the UK does.
 
Based on Johnson's previous history as a master statesman, he'll spent most of the year trying to play the EU and US off against each other like rival suitors, then splutter in outrage when they decide to run off together.
Nah in that circumstance he'd probably forgive the Chinese for their fiendish rhubarb plot.


Tbf he comes across a as more comfortable on the world stage than May ever did or Corbyn ever wiould
 
Latest LeFT statement below directly engages with some of the debate on this thread:


"As the dust settles after Britain formally left the EU on the 31st January, the task for socialists remains the same: to work to raise working class consciousness, and to arm our movement and our class with the necessary weapons in the struggle ahead. What context Britain outside the EU provides, and where the likely terrain for the battle will be, are questions we must seek to answer, and ones in which the LeFT Campaign aims to play a part.

Brexit Day is only a prelude to at the very least 11 months of Tory-EU negotiations to agree a new trading arrangement.

It’s very likely that this will provoke further crisis in Britain’s ruling class, as the Tories try to negotiate with Brussels and Washington simultaneously.

Regarding the latter, the mooted ambition is a trade deal with the US, but that is difficult, and is unlikely to happen before the presidential election in November. There are already signs of US-UK tensions, exacerbated by the furore over Huawei’s role in Britain’s 5G network.

Johnson wants to be free to engage in state investment. That requires a ‘Canada-plus deal with the EU.

This new vision, brought on by economic necessity and the wishes of a section of British capital, as well as by the political reality of how Johnson won his majority, is rather different from the delusional, harking back to empire vision beloved of Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group. This will potentially create further tensions in the UK’s first party of capital.

For its part, the EU doesn’t want to set up barriers to trade, or allow Britain to gain competitive advantage by using state aid for investment in key manufacturing sectors.

Pascal Lamy, former WTO Director General and EU Trade Commissioner, told the BBC this week that forthcoming negotiations between the EU and Britain will be the first in history where both parties began with frictionless trade and discuss what barriers to put up – and this is in the context of EU power brokers being historically opposed to such measures.

All this points to a set of contradictions that will provide an opportunity for the left, providing we fight Johnson with full knowledge of the context of the struggle, which is that we have a Tory government that is going to try and use its initial period to address, however inadequately, the concerns of the people who lent it their vote, while attacking trade unions and tacking further right on social issues and upping the ‘culture war’ that has so weakened political discourse and undermined class unity in recent years. In doing that it will embolden forces to its right, and worsen the racist hostile environment that it has done so much to foster.

Responding to that cannot mean arguing to keep alignment with the EU, as John McDonnell argued on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday 2 February. There are three principal problems with the position that he articulated:

1. It would stymie the parliamentary left and any future Labour government, and give succour to the left’s enemies, and those responsible for the election loss.

2. It fails to understand whatsoever the political context, and hopes for a future of rebuilding industry and prosperity in regions blighted by deindustrialisation and will help not one jot with rebuilding the left in the so-called ‘Red Wall’.

3. It is not going to happen. The Tories have a large majority. As is obvious from the lack of pressure coming from the corporate media, the People’s Vote campaign and even the ghosts of New Labour, much of British capital is confident that it can cope with whatever happens in post-Brexit Britain, providing the City of London’s banking and financial interests are kept safe.

We in Leave - Fight - Transform, the LeFT Campaign need to continue to make the case for what can be achieved outside the EU and to fight to rebuild the left in our communities in all of Britain.

The LeFT campaign:

Acknowledges that this will require a united left, one in which how people voted in 2016 does not define them. Remain and Leave are finished. This will require us to continue to make the correct analysis, both of the actual concrete reality of the EU, and of the tactics needed to rebuild an independent, fighting left.

Will fight for workers’ rights in post-Brexit Britain. As part of this, we will continue to make the case that our rights are not dependent upon workers’ relationship with the EU, but on the strength of our movement.

Will, in the context of a new and unpredictable terrain, fight for full social and political rights for migrant workers in Britain, demand an end to the discriminatory treatment of non-EU migrants to Britain and continue to call for an end to Fortress Europe. This is the path to international working class unity

Will build solidarity with the working class movement across other EU member states, in particular with socialists looking to develop a case for exiting.

Will develop a series of meetings and material for education for use both here and internationally: in the unions; in the workplace; in colleges and universities.

The EU has been hugely weakened by the loss of a tenth of its population and a sixth of its GDP, along with one of its most powerful military and diplomatic powers. What couldn’t be done has been done: a major country has broken with the largest trading bloc in history.

If we look to the debates taking place in the US, Bernie Sanders’ opposition to NAFTA has begun a conversation that it has been impossible to have in the UK (or anywhere in the EU) for generations. Now we can begin to have that debate, and to think about what the path to a transformed Britain and Europe looks like. It won’t be easy.

There are right wing governments throughout the bloc, and enemies everywhere. But the terrain is now open.

 
Indeed. For example, in my field, the EU have declared that some other regimes (eg Bermuda, Switzerland) have “equivalence”. It’s a completely different set of regulations to the strict ones we have to abide by, but the EU have pragmatically decided “good enough”
FWIW, the Institute for Government claim that the Swiss, sector by sector type, agreements are increasingly unpopular with the supra-state precisely because they have the potential to undermine the SM without institutions for oversight:

The UK is right that there are precedents for deals in the “middle ground” between Norway and Canada. Contrary to the European Union’s (EU) frequent statement that no partial integration in the Single Market is possible, it has allowed some exceptions for non-EU countries. But where such arrangements exist, that access has carried strict obligations.

The agreements with Ukraine and other eastern neighbours provide for partial integration into the Single Market but tie market access rights to the adoption of EU rules and oversight by EU institutions. Even if this was attractive for the UK, the circumstances are different: Ukraine is moving towards the EU, while the UK has chosen to leave.

Switzerland has a network of agreements with the EU that allows for sector by sector participation in the Single Market, but without institutions to oversee and enforce the agreements. This arrangement might also seem attractive to the UK, but it has become increasingly unpopular with the EU, which is unlikely to agree to offer the UK the same.

The EU has used a limited form of mutual recognition to remove some barriers to trade with countries like the US, New Zealand and Israel. But an agreement with the UK based on broad mutual recognition is highly unlikely. Its absence of oversight and institutions would contradict the EU’s approach to trade."
 
I think this is a fundamental misreading of the situation. The EU know the dynamics have shifted against them. Before the GE they had their supporters effectively in charge of the HoC. They had all of the parties expect the Tories calling for a second referendum and all calling for Remain. All of this is dead in the water now. The idea that now is the time for the EU to go on the front foot is baseless.

Johnson is not 'hardline' either. He's instinctively pro-EU and a deal. What he does also have to do however is manage and keep bound in as much as possible a constituency that is hardline and does not want a deal on any terms.

The EU know the dynamics have shifted against them with the Tory majority passing the Withdrawal Agreement they dictated? Hardly. Johnson is not pro-deal if it is bad for him in the eyes of his party and his voters, he doesn't have any firm opinions whatsoever, just a weathercock.
 
The EU know the dynamics have shifted against them with the Tory majority passing the Withdrawal Agreement they dictated? Hardly. Johnson is not pro-deal if it is bad for him in the eyes of his party and his voters, he doesn't have any firm opinions whatsoever, just a weathercock.
it's in the way of a misreading of the situation, as you say
 
The EU know the dynamics have shifted against them with the Tory majority passing the Withdrawal Agreement they dictated? Hardly. Johnson is not pro-deal if it is bad for him in the eyes of his party and his voters, he doesn't have any firm opinions whatsoever, just a weathercock.

Is this the deal they dictated after they said the previous one could not be amended?

And if you think that the dynamics haven't shifted, that the EU are rubbing their hands at the developments since 11/12 and that they have happily noted the demise of the remain campaign and its cheerleaders within and outside the Tory Party then we'll just have to disagree.

As for Johnson, all of the available evidence (as opposed to the hapless analysis of the dregs of liberal remain) strongly indicates that he wants to be free to engage in state investment - that requires a ‘Canada-plus style deal with the EU. The model exists in other words.

Yes, he will come under pressure from the delusional, back to empire dregs of the Tory Party. But the idea that he'll simply go along with their vision is deluded.
 
And if you think that the dynamics haven't shifted, that the EU are rubbing their hands at the developments since 11/12...

"Rubbing their hands" would be an odd thing to say, but it had been clear to everyone for ages that there would at some point be a general election and Tory majority, so it's what they had planned for. It's not like it dropped unexpectedly and spoiled everything for them.
 
I thought brexit was oven ready and done.


I did not think it was oven ready and done or at this point over in my lifetime.
 
i can readily imagine johnson snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. lest we forget, he's the man who returned with an even worse deal than theresa may got.

No you see ignoring the vehement promises that the uk government could never put a border in the Irish Sea because it would be an act of surrender and treachery was actually a brilliant move.


And not say the blindingly obvious implication of the vote that was clear 4 years ago.
 
Is this the deal they dictated after they said the previous one could not be amended?

I'm by no means an expert but the difference between the WA negotiated by May and rejected 3 times, and the amended version eventually passed by Johnson, is fairly marginal. Didn't it all come down to the backstop / NI? And didn't the UK eventually accept there would be border checks between NI and the rest of the UK, effectively accepting that NI would, to all intents and purposes (especially as all NI residents have right to Irish citizenship) stay in the EU? I don't know what concessions the UK won from the EU, but that certainly doesn't seem to be much of one.
 
i wouldn't trust the uk negotiators to negotiate their way out of a paper bag

That's no way to talk about our plucky negotiators, taking on all comers against all odds and making a stand against the damned Boche! Spirit of 1066 and all that
, wot!
 
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