The 2023 Russian Coup.

[tim]

I feel this needs to be separate from the Ukrainian War thread. For the moment I have nothing to say myself, but hope that those with a better understanding of the dynamics might be able to keep us up to date with the situation and some insight into the background.

 

[ouirdeaux]

It probably isn't a coup.

But hey, it's a spark of hope.

 

[MrCurry]

It’s going to be interesting to see what Putin says in his imminent televised address. Will it be full attack against Prigozhin or words of contrition to try to get everyone back on the same page?

 

[cupid_stunt]

It’s going to be interesting to see what Putin says in his imminent televised address. Will it be full attack against Prigozhin or words of contrition to try to get everyone back on the same page?

He's on now, it's a full on attack against Prigozhin.

What we’re facing now is treason. Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting.

All those who went on the path of treason will be punished and will be held accountable. The armed forces have been given the necessary orders.

And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.

 

[tommers]

I'm not sure that Wagner taking over the Russian army is a good thing.

 

[Yossarian]

I just hope both sides remain calm and remember that compromise is a sign of weakness and it's very important to fight this out to the bitter end, even if it means pulling back from operations in Ukraine

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm not sure that Wagner taking over the Russian army is a good thing.

None of it's good

 

[MrCurry]

He's on now, it's a full on attack against Prigozhin.

Ok. Then the next key question is whether Prigozhin is going to back down quickly or keep on keeping on, in which case coup attempt is definitely the right description.

 

[kebabking]

The Kings evil councillors...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Ok. Then the next key question is whether Prigozhin is going to back down quickly or keep on keeping on, in which case coup attempt is definitely the right description.

I guess it depends on Russian commanders and troops on the ground in Ukraine, with luck some of them may well have had enough themselves.

Absolutely anything can happen now, but whatever does happens it is only going to be of benefit to Ukraine.

 

[Rob Ray]

I'm not sure he has an option for backing down at this stage, he's been branded a traitor by Putin and the FSB has him down as a criminal case. That particular roll of the dice is done. The next roll is on whether his own troops will support him now it's clear the Kremlin has made its choice.

Related: I don't think it was a coincidence that he picked a key infrastructure city close to the Georgian border.

 

[gosub]

I just hope both sides remain calm and remember that compromise is a sign of weakness and it's very important to fight this out to the bitter end, even if it means pulling back from operations in Ukraine

There was only one visionary who had Russia down to lose control of Rostov...perhaps we should send her to negotiate a settlement....failing that please send salad.

 

[Pickman's model]

I guess it depends on Russian commanders and troops on the ground in Ukraine, with luck some of them may well have had enough themselves.

Absolutely anything can happen now, but whatever does happens it is only going to be of benefit to Ukraine.

You say that and of course you're possibly right. But equally this could end up rather worse for Ukraine. There's speculation on twitter that there's been some deal done with prigozhin and if that's true, if zelensky is willing to treat with prigozhin after all wagner has done in Ukraine, then there's no real reason why negotiations shouldn't take place with putin - that's certainly a line of argument I wouldn't be surprised to see made. If ukraine's offensive falters, especially in these new circumstances, I'd not be shocked if more pressure is put on zelensky by western governments to negotiate.

 

[agricola]

You say that and of course you're possibly right. But equally this could end up rather worse for Ukraine. There's speculation on twitter that there's been some deal done with prigozhin and if that's true, if zelensky is willing to treat with prigozhin after all wagner has done in Ukraine, then there's no real reason why negotiations shouldn't take place with putin - that's certainly a line of argument I wouldn't be surprised to see made. If ukraine's offensive falters, especially in these new circumstances, I'd not be shocked if more pressure is put on zelensky by western governments to negotiate.

that last sentence especially - and it wouldn't have to falter that much either, only as far as losses making further defence of what remains of Ukraine more questionable

 

[RedRedRose]

If this is true, they have taken one of the south-western most city's, and are about 1,000km from Moscow.

 

[gosub]

If this is true, they have taken one of the south-western most city's, and are about 1,000km from Moscow.

It's like Group 4 taking Aldershot of old, though isn't Aldershot of old, most of the initial invasion was routed thru there

 

[ruffneck23]

Wow, this a bit mad to wake up to.

and I have a bad feeling about all of this, as in Putin is likely to do something very reckless.

 

[kebabking]

There's some chat about squabbles in Voronez, which is about half way between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow...

Rostov-on-Don is the major logistics hub for the Ukrainian Front, and for Crimea. It's also the HQ of the Southern Military District, as well as for the GRU and FSB. It would be akin to having a mutiny in Portsmouth in 1940...

 

[MickiQ]

We're in anything might happen territory at the moment aren't we?

 

[cupid_stunt]

A reporter on Al Jazeera says there's no fighting in Rostov-on-Don, and that Russian troops have basically accepted Wagner's arrival.

 

[gosub]

There's some chat about squabbles in Voronez, which is about half way between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow...

Rostov-on-Don is the major logistics hub for the Ukrainian Front, and for Crimea. It's also the HQ of the Southern Military District, as well as for the GRU and FSB. It would be akin to having a mutiny in Portsmouth in 1940...

Trying to say the same thing , though Portsmouth is and was floaty related stuff.

 

[cupid_stunt]

UK MoD update -

“In the early hours of June 24 2023, the feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the Russian MoD escalated into outright military confrontation.

“In an operation characterised by Prigozhin as a ‘march for freedom’, Wagner Group forces crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations.

“In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner has almost certainly occupied key security sites, including the HQ which runs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.

“Further Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.

“Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”

That seems the key bit.

LINK

 

[maomao]

I have so much fucking work to do today. I will have to limit myself to hourly updates or something.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky has uploaded Putin's address, with English translation, he's not a happy chappy.

 

[MickiQ]

I have so much fucking work to do today. I will have to limit myself to hourly updates or something.

Slightly annoyed with them for not waiting until Monday tbh, if they had done it then I could have followed it closely whilst pretending to work.
I have to go fetch Youngest Q home from Uni in half an hour so I am going to be unable to follow this thread for 4 or 5 hours.

 

[SpookyFrank]

It's my day off and I have my Russian translator on staff so I'm all set

 

[Flavour]

Ok moving my telegram updates to this thread now. Ukrainian telegram reports the Russian air force bombing the M4 highway to block Wagner from moving toward Moscow

 

[Cloo]

Talk about all kicking off

 

[two sheds]

Ok moving my telegram updates to this thread now. Ukrainian telegram reports the Russian air force bombing the M4 highway to block Wagner from moving toward Moscow

(((Bristol)))

 

[Mr Moose]

Just trying to fathom how employing a fascist mercenary army to attack a neighbouring Country could have gone so wrong.