Elpenor
The World Turned Upside Down
The best annual sports tournament in the world begins again on 9 days time with France v Wales on the evening of Friday 31st January.
Fixtures:
France are probably favourites. I’ve had the privilege to see Toulouse and Bordeaux (the top two French teams who will provide the bulk of their squad) play live this season and they are superb. Dupont is back with a gold medal, Ntamack is back fit and Damian Penaud can’t stop scoring tries - 9 in his last two matches. The French do have some injuries at prop and centre to worry about and will have to win at one of Twickenham or Dublin to secure a title. My feeling is France will win on bonus points.
Ireland have a temporary coach while Farrell is seconded to the Lions. Simon Easterby will most likely not differ from the tried and tested template, Ireland play in a very consistent way and are blooding a new fly half, Sam Prendergast who plays rather like the recently retired Johnny Sexton. They have won the last two titles, and have an ageing team that’s a year older than last time. But pretty sure I said they were ageing last year too! No majorinjuries I am aware of though I think tight head talent Tadgh Furlong has only just returned to fitness and a few players are short of form from the Autumn. They hadn’t lost at home for ages until the All Blacks beat them recently and will play both England and France at home this year, both of whom will want to exploit that potential weakness and come away with a statement victory. No team has won 3 titles in a row in the six nations era and I think that may still be the case in 2 months time.
England’s first two games are away in Ireland and then at home to France. Win both and it could be a grand slam. Lose both and head coach Steve Borthwick may be a goner at the end of the championship. He still feels too reactive a coach and too driven by data. There are quite a few players injured for all or part of the tournament - amongst them star winger Manny Feyi-Waboso and former captain Jamie George, and the exciting full back George Furbank. Maro Itoje is the new captain, appointed before George’s injury, England lacked leadership in the autumn so hopefully he makes a difference. Three matches at home and England really must give Scotland a kicking to settle recent scores. I am not sure what success looks like but I’d say they must be in with a shout of winning the title on the final day for the sake of England’s progress.
Scotland have been a nearly team for ages but can’t ever win more than 3 matches in the 6N. This year they simply must win 4 games though and have a chance at the title. Unfortunately their captain and star player Sione Tuipulotu is out of the entire tournament through injury. So I think what was a real chance of silverware has perhaps gone, and certainly become a lot harder to achieve. That said they’re not a one player team and possess a decent back line particularly the outside backs. There’s an injury crisis in the second row, so it may be that a lack of forward power will prove costly.
I don’t know what to make of Italy. They had a great 2024 with two wins and a draw. I can’t see them bettering this but of course that will be their aim. They have a brilliant back line if they’re fit - Capuozzo, Brix, Menechello etc. But I’ll back them to play attacking rugby and look for try bonus points and if so, the act of scoring around 30 points will probably lead to wins; no doubt one against Wales and perhaps a shock one elsewhere.
Wales haven’t won since playing Georgia in October 2023 in the Rugby World Cup. I can’t see them winning on their next trip to France in round one either and after that Rome away won’t be much easier. There’s a strong chance they will be winning the wooden spoon again. Gatland is frankly not the coach he was - his brand of pressure rugby allied with a tough defence was based on making matches a low scoring arm wrestle and this is now an outdated approach. The squad no longer has the physical presence it did in his previous successes. The squad is a mix of old timers hanging on and kids. Some of the players selected are very inexperienced but they’ll be captained by the likeable Jac Morgan who is a superb hardworking flanker of the type Wales produce so frequently. Welsh rugby is in total turmoil and could do with a morale boosting win. Sadly I just don’t see where this is coming from.
I don’t think it will be a grand slam this year and reckon the way the fixtures fall favour Ireland slightly but I still think France are my favourites. Hopefully the title is live on the last weekend, not least as I’ll be in Caaaardiff for the Super Saturday to see England play Wales. I’ve not done a dummy table to check this for certain but feel with the relative levels of each teams there’s a chance that three of England, France, Scotland and Ireland could be in with a shout on the final day.
And of course there are Lions places up for grabs. Players that perform well each week and particularly win away from home will be doing their chances no harm. Most of the Ireland team will fancy their chances of being called up for the Lions with their head coach as the selector but if they fluff their lines they may find they aren’t spending the summer down under. Very few Welsh players will go. Scottish and English players who are borderline to go will need to outplay their Irish counterparts if it’s a 50-50 call, the same for squad players vs definite starters. So lots to play for I think!
In broadcaster news it’s on ITV and BBC. 4/5 of the England games are on ITV. No more Sir Clive Knobhead being a pundit, he has retired thankfully. Instead they’ve recruited… Eddie Jones mate!
There have been a few rule changes since last year to speed the game up and make it more of an attacking spectacle. Hopefully these will be explained by the commentators!
Fixtures:
France are probably favourites. I’ve had the privilege to see Toulouse and Bordeaux (the top two French teams who will provide the bulk of their squad) play live this season and they are superb. Dupont is back with a gold medal, Ntamack is back fit and Damian Penaud can’t stop scoring tries - 9 in his last two matches. The French do have some injuries at prop and centre to worry about and will have to win at one of Twickenham or Dublin to secure a title. My feeling is France will win on bonus points.
Ireland have a temporary coach while Farrell is seconded to the Lions. Simon Easterby will most likely not differ from the tried and tested template, Ireland play in a very consistent way and are blooding a new fly half, Sam Prendergast who plays rather like the recently retired Johnny Sexton. They have won the last two titles, and have an ageing team that’s a year older than last time. But pretty sure I said they were ageing last year too! No majorinjuries I am aware of though I think tight head talent Tadgh Furlong has only just returned to fitness and a few players are short of form from the Autumn. They hadn’t lost at home for ages until the All Blacks beat them recently and will play both England and France at home this year, both of whom will want to exploit that potential weakness and come away with a statement victory. No team has won 3 titles in a row in the six nations era and I think that may still be the case in 2 months time.
England’s first two games are away in Ireland and then at home to France. Win both and it could be a grand slam. Lose both and head coach Steve Borthwick may be a goner at the end of the championship. He still feels too reactive a coach and too driven by data. There are quite a few players injured for all or part of the tournament - amongst them star winger Manny Feyi-Waboso and former captain Jamie George, and the exciting full back George Furbank. Maro Itoje is the new captain, appointed before George’s injury, England lacked leadership in the autumn so hopefully he makes a difference. Three matches at home and England really must give Scotland a kicking to settle recent scores. I am not sure what success looks like but I’d say they must be in with a shout of winning the title on the final day for the sake of England’s progress.
Scotland have been a nearly team for ages but can’t ever win more than 3 matches in the 6N. This year they simply must win 4 games though and have a chance at the title. Unfortunately their captain and star player Sione Tuipulotu is out of the entire tournament through injury. So I think what was a real chance of silverware has perhaps gone, and certainly become a lot harder to achieve. That said they’re not a one player team and possess a decent back line particularly the outside backs. There’s an injury crisis in the second row, so it may be that a lack of forward power will prove costly.
I don’t know what to make of Italy. They had a great 2024 with two wins and a draw. I can’t see them bettering this but of course that will be their aim. They have a brilliant back line if they’re fit - Capuozzo, Brix, Menechello etc. But I’ll back them to play attacking rugby and look for try bonus points and if so, the act of scoring around 30 points will probably lead to wins; no doubt one against Wales and perhaps a shock one elsewhere.
Wales haven’t won since playing Georgia in October 2023 in the Rugby World Cup. I can’t see them winning on their next trip to France in round one either and after that Rome away won’t be much easier. There’s a strong chance they will be winning the wooden spoon again. Gatland is frankly not the coach he was - his brand of pressure rugby allied with a tough defence was based on making matches a low scoring arm wrestle and this is now an outdated approach. The squad no longer has the physical presence it did in his previous successes. The squad is a mix of old timers hanging on and kids. Some of the players selected are very inexperienced but they’ll be captained by the likeable Jac Morgan who is a superb hardworking flanker of the type Wales produce so frequently. Welsh rugby is in total turmoil and could do with a morale boosting win. Sadly I just don’t see where this is coming from.
I don’t think it will be a grand slam this year and reckon the way the fixtures fall favour Ireland slightly but I still think France are my favourites. Hopefully the title is live on the last weekend, not least as I’ll be in Caaaardiff for the Super Saturday to see England play Wales. I’ve not done a dummy table to check this for certain but feel with the relative levels of each teams there’s a chance that three of England, France, Scotland and Ireland could be in with a shout on the final day.
And of course there are Lions places up for grabs. Players that perform well each week and particularly win away from home will be doing their chances no harm. Most of the Ireland team will fancy their chances of being called up for the Lions with their head coach as the selector but if they fluff their lines they may find they aren’t spending the summer down under. Very few Welsh players will go. Scottish and English players who are borderline to go will need to outplay their Irish counterparts if it’s a 50-50 call, the same for squad players vs definite starters. So lots to play for I think!
In broadcaster news it’s on ITV and BBC. 4/5 of the England games are on ITV. No more Sir Clive Knobhead being a pundit, he has retired thankfully. Instead they’ve recruited… Eddie Jones mate!
There have been a few rule changes since last year to speed the game up and make it more of an attacking spectacle. Hopefully these will be explained by the commentators!
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