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Rochdale by-election

PR1Berske

Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Sir Tony Lloyd MP (Labour) has died. A by-election would be held in due course unless the expected general election happens in the meantime.

Sir Tony had been battling cancer and a recent leukaemia diagnosis.

His X/itter account has been updated with this message:


 
Even with the grooming fall out, this will be a comfortable Labour win. The Liberals have disappeared on the back of Smith's noncery and the tories are equally toxic at the moment. Heywood, next door constituency went red wall last time, but I expect that will also go back to Labour next time. There have been some boundary changes in the last couple of elections, but still Labour wins all round.
 
George Galloway has announced he is running
Rochdale is around 20% Asian. The cynical fuck thinks he'll hoover them up, particularly after Starmer's pro genocide stance. Might get say 2000 votes, but nil chance of an upset.
 
Just rowing back slightly on what I said about this being an easy Labour win, I do think they will at least be worried about the dynamics in play here. Danczuk probably isn't much of a factor, a disgraced MP who did appallingly when he stood as an independent. Now standing as a 'stop the boats/anti-grooming' racist. Probably firms up that vote and perhaps drags a few Labour voters in, but nothing too significant. Galloway is a different issue. He'll do his shameless schtick and go round barging into the Mosques and Palestine demos, pretty much his usual thing. It's just that Labour don't know how Starmer's vile behaviour on Palestine will boost this.

I don't live round there now and haven't got much of a feel for how it is on the ground. My guess though is moving more in the direction of a Labour win with reduced majority. 1. Lab 2. Con. 3. Galloway 4. Libs.
Pedantic edit. Libs or Reform in 4th place, but... who cares.
 
Just rowing back slightly on what I said about this being an easy Labour win, I do think they will at least be worried about the dynamics in play here. Danczuk probably isn't much of a factor, a disgraced MP who did appallingly when he stood as an independent. Now standing as a 'stop the boats/anti-grooming' racist. Probably firms up that vote and perhaps drags a few Labour voters in, but nothing too significant. Galloway is a different issue. He'll do his shameless schtick and go round barging into the Mosques and Palestine demos, pretty much his usual thing. It's just that Labour don't know how Starmer's vile behaviour on Palestine will boost this.

I don't live round there now and haven't got much of a feel for how it is on the ground. My guess though is moving more in the direction of a Labour win with reduced majority. 1. Lab 2. Con. 3. Galloway 4. Libs.
Pedantic edit. Libs or Reform in 4th place, but... who cares.
Despite the fact that HS2 was originally planned to serve Greater Manchester where Rochdale is , the poster on these boards who declared that the cancellation of HS2 would have a greater effect on voters changing parties than Palestine is going to be as wrong as wrong can be in this by-election. Galloway took nearly 9000 votes in Batley and Spen mainly over the issue of Palestine against a pro Palestinian Labour candidate so I think we can imagine what the scenario will be. Despite the fact that the Labour candidate was one of 40 signatures from Lancashire Labour to a letter criticising Starmer's initial comments defending Israel's 'right' to cut off essential utilities and aid to Gaza its going to be relatively easy for Galloway to call him out as Starmers candidate.

I think any pro-Palestinian candidate who has links with the local community or can get links with the local community can do damage to Labour. Despite Galloway's fading and tarnished profile the combination of big enough name and an even bigger issue is going to have some impact.

On a lighter note I'm looking forward to a potential supporting undercard of Galloway versus Paul Mason on social media.
 
I think Danczuk is an irrelevance, thankfully (hard to imagine a viler human being, and I've had professional dealings with him outside of politics, and know his first wife, so am especially allergic to the twat). He's doing this to cement his position on the right wing media circuit I imagine. Anecdotes about him / his behaviour (not just the reported stuff) are pretty common in Rochdale from what I understand - I can't see him re-establishing himself as some sort of local hero.

But yeah, Galloway will do well, and eat into Labour's majority significantly.
 
STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED

Azhar ALI (Lab)
Mark COLEMAN (no ballot paper description)
Simon DANCZUK (Reform UK)
Iain DONALDSON (Liberal Democrats)
Paul ELLISON (Conservative Party)
George GALLOWAY (Workers Party of Britain)
Michael HOWARTH (no ballot paper description)
William HOWARTH (Independent)
Guy OTTEN (Green Party)
Raven Rodent SUBORTNA (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
David TULLY (Independent)
 
I think Danczuk is an irrelevance, thankfully (hard to imagine a viler human being, and I've had professional dealings with him outside of politics, and know his first wife, so am especially allergic to the twat). He's doing this to cement his position on the right wing media circuit I imagine. Anecdotes about him / his behaviour (not just the reported stuff) are pretty common in Rochdale from what I understand - I can't see him re-establishing himself as some sort of local hero.

But yeah, Galloway will do well, and eat into Labour's majority significantly.
Yeah, Danczuk is vile.
 
Despite the fact that HS2 was originally planned to serve Greater Manchester where Rochdale is , the poster on these boards who declared that the cancellation of HS2 would have a greater effect on voters changing parties than Palestine is going to be as wrong as wrong can be in this by-election. Galloway took nearly 9000 votes in Batley and Spen mainly over the issue of Palestine against a pro Palestinian Labour candidate so I think we can imagine what the scenario will be. Despite the fact that the Labour candidate was one of 40 signatures from Lancashire Labour to a letter criticising Starmer's initial comments defending Israel's 'right' to cut off essential utilities and aid to Gaza its going to be relatively easy for Galloway to call him out as Starmers candidate.

I think any pro-Palestinian candidate who has links with the local community or can get links with the local community can do damage to Labour. Despite Galloway's fading and tarnished profile the combination of big enough name and an even bigger issue is going to have some impact.

On a lighter note I'm looking forward to a potential supporting undercard of Galloway versus Paul Mason on social media.
Labour's peril re Palestine is the towns 19% Asian population is almost entirely Muslim. However Cons were 2nd last time and I don't see them getting anywhere near mounting a challenge. Libs are dead after Smith. Suppose it gets interesting if it's a really low turnout.
 
Labour's peril re Palestine is the towns 19% Asian population is almost entirely Muslim. However Cons were 2nd last time and I don't see them getting anywhere near mounting a challenge. Libs are dead after Smith. Suppose it gets interesting if it's a really low turnout.
Yes the Tories are finished, the point I'm making is that Labour will lose votes to a candidate that supports Palestine.
 
STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED

Azhar ALI (Lab)
Mark COLEMAN (no ballot paper description)
Simon DANCZUK (Reform UK)
Iain DONALDSON (Liberal Democrats)
Paul ELLISON (Conservative Party)
George GALLOWAY (Workers Party of Britain)
Michael HOWARTH (no ballot paper description)
William HOWARTH (Independent)
Guy OTTEN (Green Party)
Raven Rodent SUBORTNA (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
David TULLY (Independent)
Don’t know about the independents or the loony, but the rest… what an utterly depressing shower of shits. Defacing ballot paper would look an attractive option there.
 
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