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Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus

Cloo said:
It seems to me like, when it comes to reopening society, a lot hangs on whether, or the degree to which, vaccines inhibit infectiousness. I hope/presume someone, somewhere is monitoring this in vaccinated people? Would it be a case of 'backwards tracing' and presumably you'd have to test a selection of vaccinated people regularly?
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There are studies underway but it will take time for it to become apparent. It will most likely be achieved through modelling comparison rather than tracing individual cases: model various scenarios for differing degrees of vaccine acquired transmission reduction (0 to 100%) and then see which one fits what is being observed across the wider population.
 
Problems will include teasing out the effect from widespread changes in assorted policy changes and behaviours post-vaccination (can we say 'poor messaging'?) but also the almost inevitable growing selection pressure for escape mutations in populations where there has been a failure to pursue elimination (very likely already being seen elsewhere with respect to naturally acquired immunity in the face of E484K, L18F, K417N/T flavoured variants and friends).
 
2hats said:
There are studies underway but it will take time for it to become apparent. It will most likely be achieved through modelling comparison rather than tracing individual cases: model various scenarios for differing degrees of vaccine acquired transmission reduction (0 to 100%) and then see which one fits what is being observed across the wider population.
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Thanks, I gathered it was complicated and likely to take a while, I guess if cases do drop off we might not really be able to tell until we get through next winter.
 
Cloo said:
It seems to me like, when it comes to reopening society, a lot hangs on whether, or the degree to which, vaccines inhibit infectiousness. I hope/presume someone, somewhere is monitoring this in vaccinated people? Would it be a case of 'backwards tracing' and presumably you'd have to test a selection of vaccinated people regularly?
Click to expand...

I've been vaccinated and since then have had a test (negative) since had contact with positive case and had some symptoms. I've been asked by PHE and another body about this (as have others in similar situations I know) so does seem they are on it Cloo
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
I've been vaccinated and since then have had a test (negative) since had contact with positive case and had some symptoms. I've been asked by PHE and another body about this (as have others in similar situations I know) so does seem they are on it Cloo
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Thanks, interesting to know - hope you stay feeling OK.
 
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Hmmm ...

Whilst half-asleep this morning, I'm sure I heard an ad on the radio asking for males who have recently recovered from Covid to donate blood plasma for antibody treatments.

I was under the impression that this "convalescent plasma" treatment was considered largely in-effective ?
 
Trouble is in Israel the ultra-Orthodox have historically been treated with kid gloves and made an exception for for various things, but they need to be fucking come down on hard for this stuff.
 
StoneRoad said:
Hmmm ...

Whilst half-asleep this morning, I'm sure I heard an ad on the radio asking for males who have recently recovered from Covid to donate blood plasma for antibody treatments.

I was under the impression that this "convalescent plasma" treatment was considered largely in-effective ?
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See this post that I wrote after being surprised by a TV advert on that same theme, and then I had a look into the resumption of trials.

#1,104

I dont think they are only looking for males, but some of their adverts may be deliberately aimed at certain groups. eg the TV one I saw was put on at half time of a football game and featured a football manager.
 
Throughout this whole pandemic, I've been listening to Laurie Garrett a lot who predicted this in the mid 90s. She hasn't got anything wrong yet and she said something in a talk I heard earlier that made me feel more depressed than I've felt in ages about our prospects.

She was comparing our approach to vaccines with the way we've misused antibiotics. Our overuse of them and not finishing courses of them over time has led to the proliferation of drug resistant bacteria. She fears the same might happen with covid because we are just vaccinating but doing so in a haphazard way. By extending the time between the first and second dose there's a possibility that we're assisting the virus in its evolutionary process of selecting for strains that evade our immune systems more effectively. This is because one dose is only, say, 50% effective (don't know the exact figure) so virus can still get in the body, stay in the body for months, see the immune response caused by the first dose and has all that time to adjust to different strains to evade immune detection. Furthermore, this virus is apparently unusually quick to mutate and mutate significantly and, according to her if there's no real global plan, which there isn't, then this will go on and on and on.

Her comments about this are in this section. It's obviously more US centred but I think the more general points about vaccines apply everywhere. The bit about the oxford vaccine only being 8% effective is obviously wrong but this wasn't yet refuted when this talk occurred.

 
Some data hints from the Israel Ministry of Health a few days ago indicate that they are seeing something like 23 in a million people requiring hospitalisation for COVID after vaccination (overwhelmingly BNT162b2, but a smattering of mRNA-1273) and around 443 infections per million (though this of course is not a controlled random trial, so not a clear indication of efficacy in itself). Hospitalisation rates amongst those infected would appear to be broadly similar to what one would expect prior to the vaccination.

Now there is more substantive Israeli data which suggests a successful vaccination signal is starting to appear. Comparing across age cohorts and across late versus early vaccination cities and third to second lockdown one can start to tease out an effect from the vaccination programme.
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Clear drops in hospitalisations (also 'severe' hospitalisations). Likewise in tests but that is more open to confounders.
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More in a preprint due shortly.
 
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An interesting though perhaps not entirely surprising observation...

A small study (DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653) of seropositives receiving a single dose of an mRNA vaccine suggests that they develop a very strong immune response much faster than in seronegatives, with much higher (ten times) antibody titres. Reactions to the first jab are also noticeably more pronounced than in naive individuals.

A single dose mRNA regimen for the previously infected might effectively vaccinate them and save vaccine resources, though follow-up studies are needed.
www.nytimes.com

Had Covid? You May Need Only One Dose of Vaccine, Study Suggests (Published 2021)

People who have already been sick with Covid-19 should still be vaccinated, experts say, but they may experience intense side effects even after one dose.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

e2a: A second study that comes to pretty much an identical conclusion DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843.
 
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2hats said:
An interesting though perhaps not entirely surprising observation...

A small study (DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653) of seropositives receiving a single dose of an mRNA vaccine suggests that they develop a very strong immune response much faster than in seronegatives, with much higher (ten times) antibody titres. Reactions to the first jab are also noticeably more pronounced than in naive individuals.

A single dose mRNA regimen for the previously infected might effectively vaccinate them and save vaccine resources, though follow-up studies are needed.
www.nytimes.com

Had Covid? You May Need Only One Dose of Vaccine, Study Suggests (Published 2021)

People who have already been sick with Covid-19 should still be vaccinated, experts say, but they may experience intense side effects even after one dose.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

e2a: A second study that comes to pretty much an identical conclusion DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843.
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That seems to contradict the current protocol that has been stopping some care homes / individuals getting jabbed - the 28 days wait after testing +ve , or have I misunderstood ?
 
MrSki said:
Seems the Russian vaccine is pretty good.

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A heterologous recombinant adenovirus (rAd)-based vaccine, Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V), showed a good safety profile and induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses in participants in phase 1/2 clinical trials. This interim analysis of the phase 3 trial of Gam-COVID-Vac showed 91·6% efficacy against COVID-19 and was well tolerated in a large cohort. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00234-8.

Note: heterologously boosted.
 
2hats said:
A heterologous recombinant adenovirus (rAd)-based vaccine, Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V), showed a good safety profile and induced strong humoral and cellular immune responses in participants in phase 1/2 clinical trials. This interim analysis of the phase 3 trial of Gam-COVID-Vac showed 91·6% efficacy against COVID-19 and was well tolerated in a large cohort. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00234-8.

Note: heterologously boosted.
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Yes, interesting; someone (I think it was you?) mentioned the possibility that the improved efficacy of the AZ 1/2 dose initial vaccination might be due to a lower immune response to the vector in the boost; I note that the efficacy in this heterologous adenovirus vaccine is similar to that reported for the 1/2 dose first AZ regime.
 
prunus said:
Yes, interesting; someone (I think it was you?) mentioned the possibility that the improved efficacy of the AZ 1/2 dose initial vaccination might be due to a lower immune response to the vector in the boost; I note that the efficacy in this heterologous adenovirus vaccine is similar to that reported for the 1/2 dose first AZ regime.
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Homologously boosted viral vector vaccines well known to suffer from such self-inflicted performance hits.

Also maybe effect not dissimilar to immune response profiles seen in single dose mRNA given to seropositives.
 
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Lab constructed 'B.1.1.7 with E484K' pseudovirus demonstrates significantly higher immune escape from BNT162b2 derived sera.
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Waiting for the preprint. Virologists are in favour of shorter time to second dose in older cohorts in particular.
 
www.independent.co.uk

Oxford Covid vaccine offers 76% protection for up to 12 weeks after first dose, study shows

Vaccine may also reduce transmission of the virus by 67 per cent, researchers say
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

The Oxford coronavirus vaccine offers 76 per cent protection for up to 12 weeks after the administration of a first dose, new analysis suggests.
Researchers at the University of Oxford also said their vaccine may reduce transmission of the virus by 67 per cent.

The vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing Covid-19 disease rises to 82.4 per cent once a second dose is administered after three months, according to a pre-print paper released on Tuesday.
Oxford’s scientists said the findings, which are currently under review by The Lancet, supported the UK government’s decision to extend the interval between the first and second doses, having faced widespread criticism over the policy.
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What 2hats said but in English :)
 
2hats said:
New results for AZD1222 (preprint). Overall efficacy (against symptomatic COVID) 76% (CI 59-86) at 90 days (note: participants were predominately <=55 years of age), higher in half/full dose regimen. PCR testing suggests perhaps up to 54% transmission blocking might be realisable.
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They are also saying (I think) that efficacy after the second dose is quite substantially improved by waiting 12+ weeks versus 6-weeks, which is useful support for the current 12 week plan at least for this vaccine. Again I suppose this might be due to reduced activity against the vector after the longer gap (82.4% (62.7%, 91.7%) vs 54.9% (32.7%, 69.7%)).
 
prunus said:
They are also saying (I think) that efficacy after the second dose is quite substantially improved by waiting 12+ weeks versus 6-weeks, which is useful support for the current 12 week plan at least for this vaccine. Again I suppose this might be due to reduced activity against the vector after the longer gap (82.4% (62.7%, 91.7%) vs 54.9% (32.7%, 69.7%)).
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Correct, though that was already known from the earlier trials. The good numbers noticeably in the half/full dosing regimes amongst younger cohorts.
 
Glad to hear it as I know that's the one my parents had - let's hope it's still OK in their age group (just over 70).
 
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