Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus

[2hats]

Lab constructed 'B.1.1.7 with E484K' pseudovirus demonstrates significantly higher immune escape from BNT162b2 derived sera.

Waiting for the preprint. Virologists are in favour of shorter time to second dose in older cohorts in particular.

Preprints from this study and an allied one available from the link below.

BNT162b2 found to require a two-fold increase in serum antibody concentration to neutralise a B.1.1.7 pseudovirus compared to previous wild type variants. A ten-fold increase in serum antibody concentration was required to neutralise B.1.1.7 with E484K.

The related study found a significant number in the 80+ age cohort required both doses in order to be able to neutralise the pseudovirus.

Pfizer BioNTech vaccine likely to be effective against B1.1.7 strain of SARS-CoV-2

The Pfizer BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2 is likely to be effective against the B1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, even though its efficacy is modestly affected, say

www.cam.ac.uk

 

[mx wcfc]

Preprints from this study and an allied one available from the link below.

BNT162b2 found to require a two-fold increase in serum antibody concentration to neutralise a B.1.1.7 pseudovirus compared to previous wild type variants. A ten-fold increase in serum antibody concentration was required to neutralise B.1.1.7 with E484K.

The related study found a significant number in the 80+ age cohort required both doses in order to be able to neutralise the pseudovirus.

Pfizer BioNTech vaccine likely to be effective against B1.1.7 strain of SARS-CoV-2

The Pfizer BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2 is likely to be effective against the B1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, even though its efficacy is modestly affected, say

www.cam.ac.uk

I used to "proof read" my daughter's science papers when she was doing her degree - checking for typos and "readability". I never understood the actual science though.

The stuff the Urban scientists do on here is fucking brilliant.

I'm sure.

I don't actually understand very much of it, but I am grateful for your contributions on here. It certainly helps.

 

[2hats]

Oxford/AstraZeneca looking to adapt AZD1222 for recent variants by about October.

COVID-19: Vaccines against new variants should be ready by October

Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford vaccine group, says work on designing a new jab could be a quick process.

news.sky.com

Meanwhile the Swiss regulator won't approve it due to a paucity of data.

 

[Wilf]

Whether it's the Astrazeneca itself, their trial data or the different regulators, I'd say they are collectively pushing a good few people into the hesitant camp.

 

[2hats]

More in a preprint due shortly.

Preprint now available. Observed profile so far consistent with at least 50% efficacy with some degree of transmission blocking (recall predominately BNT162b2 with a small contribution from mRNA-1273).

First indication of the effect of COVID-19 vaccinations on the course of the outbreak in Israel

Concomitantly with rolling out its rapid COVID-19 vaccine program, Israel is experiencing its third, and so far largest, surge in morbidity. We aimed to estimate whether the high vaccine coverage among individuals aged over 60 years old creates an observable change in disease dynamics. Using...

www.medrxiv.org

DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.02.21250630.

 

[2hats]

UEA analysis of Israeli infection data during the early phase of the rollout of the vaccination programme. Hypothesises that persons are perhaps dropping their guard too early after their first dose as a surge in infections is seen in the first 8 days. The vaccines are estimated to be ineffective for the first 14 days, but then reaching up to 90% effectiveness by day 21.

Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel

A distinctive feature of the roll out of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 virus in the UK was the decision to delay the timing of the second injection till 12 weeks after the first. The logic behind this is to protect more people sooner and so reduce the total number of severe infections...

www.medrxiv.org

DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957.

 

[2hats]

Trouble is in Israel the ultra-Orthodox have historically been treated with kid gloves and made an exception for for various things, but they need to be fucking come down on hard for this stuff.

Might be of interest.

Extremely high SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK

Background Ethnic and religious minorities have been disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. The UK strictly-Orthodox Jewish community has been severely affected by the pandemic. This group shares characteristics with other ethnic minorities including larger family sizes, higher...

www.medrxiv.org

DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.01.21250839.

 

[2hats]

More initial analysis of the early Israeli vaccination programme data - first draft preprint. "In the past week ... there was an approximately 41% drop in number of cases, 31% drop in COVID-19 related hospitalisations and 24% drop in critically ill patients compared to 21 days ago". They too start to see the improvements around day 21 onwards. Insert usual warning about NPIs still in effect.

 

[2hats]

I used to "proof read" my daughter's science papers when she was doing her degree - checking for typos and "readability". I never understood the actual science though.

The stuff the Urban scientists do on here is fucking brilliant.

I'm sure.

I don't actually understand very much of it, but I am grateful for your contributions on here. It certainly helps.

What the last ~24 hours of news coverage tells me is that [almost all] journalists are not capable of reading and understanding a scientific paper, particularly in the context of the underlying science.

 

[gentlegreen]

TWiV explains why hydroxychloroquine failed in humans despite showing antiviral effects in cells,

Spoiler: thumbnail

 

[William of Walworth]

Whether it's the Astrazeneca itself, their trial data or the different regulators, I'd say they are collectively pushing a good few people into the hesitant camp.

Please explain? I'd personally have zero issues being vaccinated with the Oxford/AZ jab myself, but maybe you meant professionals??

 

[Wilf]

Please explain? I'd personally have zero issues being vaccinated with the Oxford/AZ jab myself, but maybe you meant professionals??

Just that's there's been a few stories about regulators not allowing its approval for older people and/or a lack of data (Germany, also Switzerland I think) along with Macron's comments about it being less effective. Don't get me wrong, I'll have whichever vaccine they offer me, I just get a feeling the 'noise' around Astrazeneca may end pushing a few people into the hesitant camp.

 

[Wilf]

Just that's there's been a few stories about regulators not allowing its approval for older people and/or a lack of data (Germany, also Switzerland I think) along with Macron's comments about it being less effective. Don't get me wrong, I'll have whichever vaccine they offer me, I just get a feeling the 'noise' around Astrazeneca may end pushing a few people into the hesitant camp.

Glad to see the evidence is running in favour of it being effective in the elderly:
UK regulators say extra AstraZeneca vaccine data highlights efficacy in elderly (yahoo.com)

 

[Badgers]

Covid-19 plan descends into shambles as No10 changes line on vaccine plan twice

No10 said a release by the Cabinet Office had been released "in error" - then minutes later admitted that it had not, and was correct

www.mirror.co.uk

• No 10 says phase 1 vax to be done by “end of spring”

• Cabinet office says aim to be done by start of May

• No10 says this was issued in error and is withdrawn

• It wasn’t

• No10 says not issued in error after all is government’s official position

 

[2hats]

Additional analysis for AZD1222 from an ongoing UK phase II/III trial (COV002) - preprint available here - with a focus on variants.

Participants were a mixture of recipients of half/full and full/full two dose regimens. Weekly self-administered PCR swabs were sequenced to facilitate determining efficacy with respect to variants.

Efficacy (measured at 14 days post second dose) seen against symptomatic non-B.1.1.7 disease of 84.1% (95CI: 70.7%—91.4%) compared to 74.6% (95CI: 41.6%—88.9%) efficacy against symptomatic B.1.1.7 - so a small reduction in efficacy against the new "UK"/"Kent" variant (minus E484K). For asymptomatic infection the efficacies were determined to be 75.4% (95CI: 39.9%—89.9%) for non-B.1.1.7 versus 26.5% (95CI: -112.0%—74.5%) for B.1.1.7 (note the paucity of data in the later case leading to huge confidence intervals).

So overall efficacy against the B.1.1.7 variant from all cases was 66.5% (95CI: 37.1%—82.1%) compared to 80.7% (95CI: 69.2%—87.9%) against other variants (neutralising titres from vaccine recipients were 9-fold lower against the B.1.1.7 lineage than against an original lineage, which, not unsurprisingly, hints at a more complex relationship to immunity than direct measurement from sera).

Finally a paper that refers to cycle threshold values. The weekly swabs from the vaccinated were lower than the control group which might point towards reduced transmission. Notes of caution:
(i) bear in mind poor time resolution,
(ii) self-administered sample collection,
(iii) those in the category of "non/failed sequenced swabs" had such widely varying efficacies (3% v -29%) from sequenced (75%) that there might be a not insignificant number of false-positive PCR results skewing the calculations,
(iv) the numbers of sequenced data points are fairly small and there is also still quite a significant spread in viral loads in both non-sequenced arms (vaccinated and control) of the study,

(v) the paper didn't detail the age profile of the participants in this sub-study (only 15% of participants enrolled in the overall COV002 study are reported to be over 55).
(vi) B.1.1.7 was on the increase during the sub-study period but was not yet dominant and didn't represent the majority of cases.

 

[Supine]

Early vaccine impact results from Israel. I look forward to seeing more of this kind of thing.

 

[2hats]

Early vaccine impact results from Israel. I look forward to seeing more of this kind of thing.

That's the data from the paper above linked in post #1178.

 

[Supine]

That's the data from the paper above linked in post #1178.

Congratulations on getting in first. Graph is easier to read

 

[2hats]

Congratulations on getting in first. Graph is easier to read

Same plot is in the paper.

Meanwhile a reanalysis of incidence rates using the most recent Israel vaccination programme data (BNT162b2 dominated) suggests bounds of 66-83% effectiveness on positive cases in 60+ y.o., 76-85% for positive cases in <=60 y.o. and 87-96% reduction in severe/critical/fatal cases overall. Though, of course, that is an evolving situation - there will be delayed severe cases which haven't been counted yet.

Maybe those 1st dose curves also hint at younger cohorts becoming less cautious after the prime shot, or perhaps are just a reflection of degree of shielding tendency with increasing age.

 

[2hats]

The ZOE COVID Symptom Study team at Kings think they are seeing an effect from the first dose of BNT162b2 amongst health workers in the UK. Based on around 13000 vaccinated and roughly 33000 unvaccinated individuals reporting, they estimate that those receiving their first dose are 53% less likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 after 12 days. Though no details on whether those receiving their first dose were already seropositive.
DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-00316-4.

 

[2hats]

A mention of the NISEC/Oxford COVID-19 Heterologous Prime Boost study (Com-Cov) which will look into mixing vaccine doses. It will compare four 2 dose regimens of AZD1222+AZD122, BNT162b2+BNT162b2, AZD1222+BNT162b2, BNT162b2+AZD1222 amongst around 800 volunteers in the 50+ age range. Suitable candidates can apply to take part here.

 

[2hats]

UK case curve after first dose for comparison (to Israel).

Though one wouldn't expect too much of an impact on UK cases yet (to say nothing of hospitalisations) - it's probably not going to start to manifest itself for another 2-4 weeks. Quite possibly over 80s immune systems taking longer to respond (than initial Israel over 60s data), response also might not be so great in that 80+ age cohort after only one dose, and 80+ demographic perhaps generally one of the most stringent when it comes to shielding.

 

[2hats]

FT claims that a preprint on AZD1222 due out Monday will report that it doesn't offer protection against mild/moderate infections due to B.1.351. But, importantly, there were apparently no reports of hospitalisations or fatalities during the study. The study was small (just over 2000 participants, median age 31).

The Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine does not appear to offer protection against mild and moderate disease caused by the viral variant first identified in South Africa, according to a study due to be published on Monday. Although none of the more than 2,000 patients in the study died or was hospitalised, the findings, which have not yet been peer reviewed, could complicate the race to roll out vaccines as new strains emerge.

 

[William of Walworth]

Just as a contrast, Ian Sample (Guardian Science Editor) reports that Oxford/AstraZeneca could look good against the 'Kent variant', according to recent trials.

 

[platinumsage]

Great interview here with Kate Bingham of the UK Vaccine Taskforce:

Kate Bingham: Why UK strategy on Covid vaccines has been a great success

An exclusive interview by "Die Welt" and "La Repubblica" to the former Chair of the UK Government's Vaccine Taskforce: what Boris Johns…

www.repubblica.it

 

[ska invita]

FT claims that a preprint on AZD1222 due out Monday will report that it doesn't offer protection against mild/moderate infections due to B.1.351. But, importantly, there were apparently no reports of hospitalisations or fatalities during the study. The study was small (just over 2000 participants, median age 31).

nerveracking news its seems to me.
all eyes on how much the SA mutation spreads now i guess...and how much it might spread when schools go back.#

 

[platinumsage]

disastrous news its seems to me.
all eyes on how much the SA mutation spreads now i guess...and how much it might spread when schools go back.

Why disastrous? If the vaccine protects against hospitalisations then vaccinated people can further strengthen their immunity by safely catching variants such as this one.

 

[ska invita]

Why disastrous? If the vaccine protects against hospitalisations then vaccinated people can further strengthen their immunity by safely catching variants such as this one.

ive amended disastrous to nerveracking
there isnt data on how it affects older vulnerable people as tests were"median age 31"
If vaccine " doesn't offer protection" it sounds like it doesnt offer protection

lets see what happens

 

[Supine]

Prof Gilbert was on Marr this morning. Amazing

<old link removed>

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Prof Gilbert was on Marr this morning. Amazing

BBC One - The Andrew Marr Show, 19/04/2020, Prof Sarah Gilbert: Coronavirus vaccine trials to start within days

Andrew Marr spoke to the Professor Sarah Gilbert, Vaccinologist at Oxford University

www.bbc.co.uk

April last year?