Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus

[William of Walworth]

Interesting, detailed and broadly positive Guardian article (from today) about the latest with the Oxford/AstraZeneca research.

Moderna vaccine trial's results bode well for Oxford/AstraZeneca jab
Phase 3 efficacy rate of nearly 95% for US firm’s treatment is promising for UK vaccine trial

Includes a cool table comparing -- very simply -- all the latest on various vaccine research projects -- under this headline
Most promising vaccines in development
in the middle of the article.

 

[William of Walworth]

From page 16 of this thread :

The moderna one had no serious cases, the Zeneca one didn’t provide any info.

Not sure what you meant there ignatious ?

The article about the Cxford/AstraZeneca research that I posted above, makes it fairly clear that we still await (imminent, most likely ) announcements from Oxford about their preliminary results.

They appear to be confident in Oxford, but they haven't actually released any data/stats yet.

Expected ahead of Xmas I think

 

[two sheds]

Those old people, living so long and then stealing our vaccines so they can go out raving and to the bingo. <shakes fist>

Given half a chance

 

[8ball]

Out of interest, I just took a look at the Pfizer protocol and details - current primary endpoint is how many infections occur a week after the second dose, and further analyses are on the way (a lot of people obv got jabbed a while back, but they batch the analysis once they have the numbers necessary to reach a degree of confidence as per original plans - this bit is pretty important in terms of justified concern about things like cooking up an analysis that is designed to flatter the results).

The pessimist in me is bracing for disappointment in the longer term, am hoping it's just paranoia. But safety-wise - nearly 40,000 people have had both doses and no serious adverse events at this point (the main worry is neurological issues, which tend to emerge quite quickly).

And... it seems to work for at least a week. So happy days.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The number of people saying they will get vaccinated is dropping, which is worrying.

The UK figures are bad enough, but it's even worst across the pond and with our neighbours.

In findings that suggest Boris Johnson’s government faces a huge challenge in managing a widespread roll-out, only 43 per cent of Britons said they were sure they would get vaccinated if eligible – down from 50 per cent in June. Another 32 per cent of people in the UK said they would “probably” be willing to get the vaccine, down four points since the summer.

Scepticism has risen even higher in the US and parts of western Europe. The proportion of Americans saying they would definitely take a vaccine has fallen from 47 per cent in June to just 30 per cent today.

Only 21 per cent of French citizens said they would definitely take a vaccine, while 35 per cent of Germans and 38 per cent of Italians said they were definite about vaccination if eligible – with all three countries seeing falls in enthusiasm since June.

Distrust of government leading to ‘alarming’ vaccine scepticism, poll finds

Politicians around the world face ‘huge task’ in building up trust for roll-out, says pollster

www.independent.co.uk

 

[ignatious]

From page 16 of this thread :


Not sure what you meant there ignatious ?

The article about the Cxford/AstraZeneca research that I posted above, makes it fairly clear that we still await (imminent, most likely ) announcements from Oxford about their preliminary results.

They appear to be confident in Oxford, but they haven't actually released any data/stats yet.

Expected ahead of Xmas I think

Ah, I meant to say Pfizer, not Zeneca.

 

[Teaboy]

The number of people saying they will get vaccinated is dropping, which is worrying.

The UK figures are bad enough, but it's even worst across the pond and with our neighbours.

Distrust of government leading to ‘alarming’ vaccine scepticism, poll finds

Politicians around the world face ‘huge task’ in building up trust for roll-out, says pollster

www.independent.co.uk

Yeah its a bit worrying but I'm fairly relaxed about it at the moment. As was discussed on another thread uptake of the vaccine will likely be linked to lots of other things which could be grouped together under a title of 'back to normal'.

I think a lot of people will soon come around to the idea of vaccination if their summer holiday depends on it. Or when there are other big drivers like for instance:

• We can only have full sports stadia when the countries vaccination levels reach ??%
• We can only have live music and other performance arts fully normal
• Places of worship can be singing and whatevs when the country reaches the percentage
• We can only allow large family gatherings etc

etc etc

There are things that can be a strict prohibition like you're not allowed in to a country with a certificate of vaccination (like yellow fever is now). Then there can be certain other measures which could be described as nudge and are based around carrot rather than stick.

Whilst there will remain a number of loud and shouty people rejecting the vaccine and below that will be a lot of worriers who are happy for others to do the heavy lifting initially, I think the desire for normality will largely overcome this. Obvs this is me just guessing but as with everything with the virus we are in unchartered waters.

The big unknown in all this is how badly the government fucks up the roll out. If they continue as they have in their visible from space levels of corruption then that could seriously damage uptake.

 

[Cloo]

We have our daughter's bat mitzvah moved to next summer - before last lockdown they'd just got it to having bar/bat mitzvahs with up to 20 guests (with a max 30-40 in the room) with masks and no singing other than service leaders, and a shortened service. I expect by end next June, that number will have increased, but masks may still be in play and it still won't be capacity, and service may remain truncated. So not normality, but improved.

I'm expecting to make it to Slovakia for summer, on the basis that if people could go there this summer (and they did), we'll be able to make it there next year.

I also worry that this government will cock up rollout, especially on top of Christmas possibly setting us back by months as I fully expect tens of millions to travel/go to people's houses over Xmas regardless of any restructions and Jan/Feb to have the potential to be the worst peak yet.

 

[magneze]

Pfizer now says their vaccine is in fact 95% effective, rather than 90% as of last week. Probably worth pointing out at this stage that it looks like the pharmaceutical companies are engaging in a PR war here.

So Pfizer said 90% last week so they could be first. Then Moderna says theirs is 95% effective. Now Pfizer says after 'more tests' theirs is in fact 95% effective.

I'm not sure this really helps confidence does it?

 

[Supine]

The numbers that matter are the final submission numbers. Time will tell who wins that one.

 

[magneze]

Indeed, I heard today that other countries are making much less noise about the vaccines. Probably a better approach overall rather than the pharmaceutical adverts masquerading as news.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Pfizer now says their vaccine is in fact 95% effective, rather than 90% as of last week. Probably worth pointing out at this stage that it looks like the pharmaceutical companies are engaging in a PR war here.

So Pfizer said 90% last week so they could be first. Then Moderna says theirs is 95% effective. Now Pfizer says after 'more tests' theirs is in fact 95% effective.

I'm not sure this really helps confidence does it?

They have just updated the data, last week's 90% figures was based on 94 confirmed Covid-19 infections among the trial’s 43,538 participant, whereas this week's final analysis it's based on 170 cases, and luckily that has shown it's more effective, it could easily have gone the other way.

Pfizer said there had been 170 cases of the disease in its trial of more 43,000 volunteers, of which 162 were observed in the placebo arm and 8 were in the vaccine group.

Pfizer coronavirus vaccine 95 per cent effective and 'could be used within days'

Pfizer has revealed that its vaccine is 95% effective, adding it had the required two-months of safety data and would apply for emergency U.S. authorisation within days

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Yeah its a bit worrying but I'm fairly relaxed about it at the moment. As was discussed on another thread uptake of the vaccine will likely be linked to lots of other things which could be grouped together under a title of 'back to normal'.

I think a lot of people will soon come around to the idea of vaccination if their summer holiday depends on it. Or when there are other big drivers like for instance:

• We can only have full sports stadia when the countries vaccination levels reach ??%
• We can only have live music and other performance arts fully normal
• Places of worship can be singing and whatevs when the country reaches the percentage
• We can only allow large family gatherings etc

etc etc

There are things that can be a strict prohibition like you're not allowed in to a country with a certificate of vaccination (like yellow fever is now). Then there can be certain other measures which could be described as nudge and are based around carrot rather than stick.

Whilst there will remain a number of loud and shouty people rejecting the vaccine and below that will be a lot of worriers who are happy for others to do the heavy lifting initially, I think the desire for normality will largely overcome this. Obvs this is me just guessing but as with everything with the virus we are in unchartered waters.

The big unknown in all this is how badly the government fucks up the roll out. If they continue as they have in their visible from space levels of corruption then that could seriously damage uptake.

Yeah I think a lot of this is just down to the usual ways you can get all sorts of weird answers in surveys. If the question is just 'will you take a vaccine' then you've got a hypothetical scenario with an uncertain risk for an uncertain reward. It's not surprising if a lot of people aren't going for a definite yes there.

When things are a bit more concrete and the vaccine(s) are hopefully offering a route out of the whole situation and some sort of path back to normality, I think take up will be a lot higher.

 

[Supine]

CEPI are setting up a taskforce to monitor new covid strains to determine vaccine effectiveness

CEPI creates new collaborative taskforce to assess impact of emerging viral strains on effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines | CEPI

cepi.net

 

[Sunray]

Vaccines have ended the problems of polio (99.99% eradication) and smallpox (eradicated in 1975) and more recently Ebola while not eradicated, the vaccine has been shown to be 90% effective for a disease which horribly kills 80% of the people who catch it.

I think the new vaccines for C-19 can end the pandemic too. So many vaccines are in the works, it's amazing what can be achieved in so little time.
If it all goes well, which I have no reason to doubt, we will be back to complaining about the weather in 2022.

 

[Epona]

We have our daughter's bat mitzvah moved to next summer - before last lockdown they'd just got it to having bar/bat mitzvahs with up to 20 guests (with a max 30-40 in the room) with masks and no singing other than service leaders, and a shortened service. I expect by end next June, that number will have increased, but masks may still be in play and it still won't be capacity, and service may remain truncated. So not normality, but improved.

I'm expecting to make it to Slovakia for summer, on the basis that if people could go there this summer (and they did), we'll be able to make it there next year.

I also worry that this government will cock up rollout, especially on top of Christmas possibly setting us back by months as I fully expect tens of millions to travel/go to people's houses over Xmas regardless of any restructions and Jan/Feb to have the potential to be the worst peak yet.

A bit off topic, but how on earth is your daughter growing up already, it seems only yesterday you were looking forward to her arrival!!! Feeling old

 

[two sheds]

Vaccines have ended the problems of polio (99.99% eradication) and smallpox (eradicated in 1975) and more recently Ebola while not eradicated, the vaccine has been shown to be 90% effective for a disease which horribly kills 80% of the people who catch it.

I think the new vaccines for C-19 can end the pandemic too. So many vaccines are in the works, it's amazing what can be achieved in so little time.
If it all goes well, which I have no reason to doubt, we will be back to complaining about the weather in 2022.

Have you looked out of the window today? Bloody rain again.

 

[Badgers]

Covid vaccines should not be seen as 'unicorn' solution, says WHO chief – video

The warning comes after positive efficacy results from late-stage trials of two potential Covid-19 vaccines

www.theguardian.com

 

[Badgers]

Thread

 

[William of Walworth]

I really want to read those two links, but I'm late for work already

I will definitely prioritise them later though -- like a fair few people on here I suspect, I'm doing my best to keep up with vaccine news and discussion.
It's fascinating stuff

 

[weltweit]

I heard a piece on R4 this morning about the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine which is apparently likely to be able to be transported and stored at much more normal temperatures which will enable vaccinations around the world in places that don't have cold chain distribution systems.

 

[Teaboy]

I heard a piece on R4 this morning about the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine which is apparently likely to be able to be transported and stored at much more normal temperatures which will enable vaccinations around the world in places that don't have cold chain distribution systems.

Yeah and its much much cheaper.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Some more good news about the Oxford vaccine.

Phase 2 data published in the Lancet suggests one of the groups most vulnerable to serious illness and death from Covid-19 could build immunity, researchers say.

According to the researchers, the trial demonstrated similar immune responses across all three age groups – 18-55, 56-69, and 70 and over.

The study of 560 healthy adults, including 240 over the age of 70, found that the vaccine is better tolerated in older people than in younger adults.

Oxford Covid vaccine could build immunity in older people – study

Phase 2 trial data shows strong immune response in over-70s and better tolerance in older adults

www.theguardian.com

 

[Supine]

Fantastic news - Pfizer have submitted to the FDA. I think it is already on a rolling assessment by EMA and the gov have asked the MHRA to assess it.

They were going to anyway but Hancock wants to sound like he plays a part in the process.

Covid vaccine: Pfizer applies for first approval in US

The vaccine could get emergency authorisation in the first two weeks of December.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Cloo]

Thread

I've always thought in this that it's not that vaccines cannot possibly be safe without a decade of development, it's just that's how long it happens to take when you don't have societal shutdown as a motivator. It's not the case that time = safety, it's just that this time we have the will and the funding, as that Tweeter says.

 

[Sprocket.]

Vaccines don’t save lives. Vaccinations save lives.
I won’t get one anyway!

Though this looks promising, I hope so anyhow.

Covid: Jab for people who cannot be vaccinated trialled Covid: Jab for people who cannot be vaccinated trialled

 

[Cloo]

I think this is probably a realistic outlook on what vaccinating a nation will mean in practice:



There's no 'moment of freedom', but people will be able to start sitting in cinemas, theatres or restaurants, distanced and/or masked and know that those measures are a precaution, not the only thing between you and infection/infecting others, which I think will feel very different and less anxiety inducing.

 

[frogwoman]

I thought that in the case of eg flu jabs it stopped you from carrying the virus and unwittingly infecting people?

 

[2hats]

There's no 'moment of freedom', but people will be able to start sitting in cinemas, theatres or restaurants, distanced and/or masked and know that those measures are a precaution, not the only thing between you and infection/infecting others, which I think will feel very different and less anxiety inducing.

Don't bet on the first vaccines to prevent you from infecting others; masks and other mitigations will still be required.

There's no evidence thus far that the leading (mRNA) vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna), in advanced trials, provide any sterilising immunity, only immunity from developing the disease, COVID-19. The third vaccine, Oxford/AstraZeneca, only appears to provoke a promising immune response thus far, which doesn't necessarily equate to even immunity from the disease - that is one of the aims of the next stage of their trial (it probably will, but is yet to be confirmed).

None of the vaccine studies are even yet to look at sterilising immunity (the ability to avoid infection and transmit the virus onwards). Most animal models don't suggest many of the vaccines (tested thus so far) will provide sterilising immunity and that's a not entirely unexpected outcome for intramuscular delivery.

Intranasal vaccines, which might come into play much later next year, may well prevent upper and lower respiratory tract infection and thus greatly reduce viral shedding in (what appears to be) the key infectious stage (some have already demonstrated this in primate models). This delivery mode may also only need one dose rather than a second booster, thus potentially improving uptake and reducing community spread more readily than intramuscular.

 

[frogwoman]

Dont flu vaccines stop you from transmitting the flu virus 2hats? A mate of mine who has a compromised immune system is very keen that people should get it for this reason.