Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

[emanymton]

In my experience the fact alone that one is suicidal usually has little impact on their ability to make moral judgements; rather, suicidal people are more willing to do the wrong thing if they think it's 'worth' it. I'm not saying it's black and white and I can't give you a neat, clear-cut theory on what I think is ok and what isn't. But generally I wouldn't condemn someone who stepped out in front of a train but I would condemn someone who deliberately crashed a plane that was also carrying passengers and crew.

I've been there, a lot of people have. I'm sure that most would agree with me when I say it's quite possible to plan to end your life but still think that taking another's is abhorrent.

I tend to agree, when I have been at those point in my life I think jumping in front of a train would seem reasonable, my main worry would be the affect it would have on the driver, but I think I could justify it to myself. I did rule out jumping from height once as I could not think of anywhere to do it where I could be sure I would not hit anyone. It is quite disturbing how rational you can be, I once went on a tour of local shops and chemists buying a packet of pills in each one so I did not raise any red flags with the staff.

 

[2hats]

So is the current theory that he flew the plane to 43000 ft, killing everyone on board and then crashed it into the sea?

Something like this or a variant is one possibility (substitute personal problems for political disaffection, desire to ensure it goes unsolved to avoid come back for some family members/associates, ensure insurance/pension payouts, or just to go down in history as an enigma, and without the initial desire to go out with a bang if there is no evidence of loitering around GIVAL in PSR data).

I would imagine the investigators certainly are entertaining the idea of foul play by a flight crew member. They may well want to get DNA samples from off the remains of the control column in order to identify who was at the pointy end at time of impact and also a few autopsies as a guide to what had gone on in the cabin (need to get there before the crabs and hag fish) and corroborate the FDR record. If they are really lucky they might be able to recover some passenger SD cards and see if there are additional clues there.

 

[frogwoman]

Something like this or a variant is one possibility (substitute personal problems for political disaffection, desire to ensure it goes unsolved to avoid come back for some family members/associates, ensure insurance/pension payouts, or just to go down in history as an enigma, and without the initial desire to go out with a bang if there is no evidence of loitering around GIVAL in PSR data).

I would imagine the investigators certainly are entertaining the idea of foul play by a flight crew member. They may well want to get DNA samples from off the remains of the control column in order to identify who was at the pointy end at time of impact and also a few autopsies as a guide to what had gone on in the cabin (need to get there before the crabs and hag fish) and corroborate the FDR record. If they are really lucky they might be able to recover some passenger SD cards and see if there are additional clues there.

If they don't know where the plane is, how will they do that?

 

[2hats]

Actually it seems that someone has been passing it off as footage but it is from last year.

Judging from the trail at the start of channel 4 news a few minutes ago, it looks like they might shortly be about to repeat the same mistake (the original youtube video and Telegraph article claiming to be such coverage having both been pulled by now).

 

[2hats]

If they don't know where the plane is, how will they do that?

ID the wreckage, model the dispersal back to the time of impact, survey the area with sonar and trawl with a hydrophone array for the ULBs. If they are really lucky might only take a few weeks. More than likely it could take months, years, or they might not ever find it.

 

[2hats]

Judging from the trail at the start of channel 4 news a few minutes ago, it looks like they might shortly be about to repeat the same mistake (the original youtube video and Telegraph article claiming to be such coverage having both been pulled by now).

Heh. They attributed it correctly. But to be fair sea state has probably been one level below that.

 

[Pickman's model]

ID the wreckage, model the dispersal back to the time of impact, survey the area with sonar and trawl with a hydrophone array for the ULBs. If they are really lucky might only take a few weeks. More than likely it could take months, years, or they might not ever find it.

this would be the ulb which only has battery for a few more days

 

[Supine]

Most oceanic garbage consists of small items (actually, technically, most of it is microscopic plastic), fairly dispersed. The French satellite imagery indicating close groupings of >100 objects of order 1m or greater is a strong lead. Obviously they are keen to get hands on the items to confirm and proceed, but I'd be surprised if someone wasn't already modelling the evolution of those items on the strength of that image alone (it's a far better steer than any of the previous satellite images) in order to begin to identify a possible starting point for the survey vessels and towed array that are en route.

Not sure i totally agree with you. I've spent quite a bit of time in the north sea. There is loads of junk suitcasd sized or bigger. Time will tell though, i suspect if anything is still floating it will eventually be recovered.

Finding the crash zone is more important though and i suspect that could now take years to find.

 

[2hats]

this would be the ulb which only has battery for a few more days

Mandated to have power to transmit for 30 days but 60 or so might be possible. Depends on the age of the unit, if it has been replaced recently, ocean temperature. Irrespective, at the depths being considered, they are going to have to trawl a hydrophone array almost over the top of it to pick the signal up.

 

[Pickman's model]

Mandated to have power to transmit for 30 days but 60 or so might be possible. Depends on the age of the unit, if it has been replaced recently, ocean temperature. Irrespective, at the depths being considered, they are going to have to trawl a hydrophone array almost over the top of it to pick the signal up.

it's been quite an eye-opener on the shortcomings of technology, this tragedy

 

[2hats]

it's been quite an eye-opener on the shortcomings of technology, this tragedy

The technology exists. It's really a matter of people paying for it/policy makers keeping up and mandating the use of it. Also, to be fair, there can be long lead times in getting the tech tested and approved for civil aviation use.

 

[Pickman's model]

The technology exists. It's really a matter of people paying for it/policy makers keeping up and mandating the use of it. Also, to be fair, there can be long lead times in getting the tech tested and approved for civil aviation use.

when technology runs up against humans at the ends of the earth it doesn't seem to come off too well

 

[twentythreedom]

I'm amazed that the location / status of commercial air traffic isn't monitored and known at all times, esp since 911 and given the capability of modern tech (esp military).

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

it's been quite an eye-opener on the shortcomings of technology, this tragedy

I would have assumed after the Air France one that they would have made the black box transmitter last much longer and be more powerful, as was shocked to learn then how cruddy it was. Seems like nothing's come of my recommendation, yet time has proved me right, as per...

 

[2hats]

I would have assumed after the Air France one that they would have made the black box transmitter last much longer and be more powerful, as was shocked to learn then how cruddy it was. Seems like nothing's come of my recommendation, yet time has proved me right, as per...

Ah so you drafted TSO-C121b then?

e2a: seems the post AF447 enquiry 90 day ULB battery lifetime isn't mandated to kick in until 1st March 2015.

 

[equationgirl]

I'm amazed that the location / status of commercial air traffic isn't monitored and known at all times, esp since 911 and given the capability of modern tech (esp military).

This plane wasn't where it was supposed to be though. Which is always going to be a problem, finding stuff where it's not supposed to be.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Heh. They attributed it correctly. But to be fair sea state has probably been one level below that.

Yeah, but guy who put his video up last year ain't getting credit for it!

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Not sure i totally agree with you. I've spent quite a bit of time in the north sea. There is loads of junk suitcasd sized or bigger. Time will tell though, i suspect if anything is still floating it will eventually be recovered.

Finding the crash zone is more important though and i suspect that could now take years to find.

Out of interest, how easy are Maersk containers to break up?

Lots of people on Tomnod seem to be seeing an "S" on what they think might be wreckage. The font doesn't look right to me though, but it occurred to me it could be an S from a Maersk container, although the S looks too tall for a Maersk sign as well

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Ah so you drafted TSO-C121b then?

e2a: seems the post AF447 enquiry 90 day ULB battery lifetime isn't mandated to kick in until 1st March 2015.

No, but I think I ranted at the landlord at the Barley Mow...

eta, 90 days? That's not enough. Why not stick one of them road works lamps on it, they go on for donks.

 

[equationgirl]

Out of interest, how easy are Maersk containers to break up?

Lots of people on Tomnod seem to be seeing an "S" on what they think might be wreckage. The font doesn't look right to me though, but it occurred to me it could be an S from a Maersk container, although the S looks too tall for a Maersk sign as well

Could it be a Christian Salvesen container?

 

[2hats]

Out of interest, how easy are Maersk containers to break up?

All too easy apparently...

 

[twentythreedom]

This plane wasn't where it was supposed to be though. Which is always going to be a problem, finding stuff where it's not supposed to be.

I meant that the location (whether intended or not) of an aircraft surely could / should be known at all times.

 

[likesfish]

Out of interest, how easy are Maersk containers to break up?

Lots of people on Tomnod seem to be seeing an "S" on what they think might be wreckage. The font doesn't look right to me though, but it occurred to me it could be an S from a Maersk container, although the S looks too tall for a Maersk sign as well

If you hit one with an anti tank missile both the doors fly hundreds of metres because of the over pressure

 

[equationgirl]

I meant that the location (whether intended or not) of an aircraft surely could / should be known at all times.

Provided the transponder or other signalling device is active. I think you would need something that had an independent power supply that could not be switched off very easily, or at all. I don't know how possible that would be.

You would also as 2hats as said need a lot of manpower to constantly monitor all commercial traffic 24 hours a day.

 

[twentythreedom]

Provided the transponder or other signalling device is active. I think you would need something that had an independent power supply that could not be switched off very easily, or at all. I don't know how possible that would be.

You would also as 2hats as said need a lot of manpower to constantly monitor all commercial traffic 24 hours a day.

It must be possible though. It just surprises me that the NSA etc aren't aware of the (relatively) precise location of all commercial flights, that's all. The technology must exist to have a fairly foolproof way to do it.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Could it be a Christian Salvesen container?

Dunno, Maersk always come to mind when I think of shipping containers. Will go and have a look at a Christian Salvesen one

Looks more like a Christian Salvesen "S" than a Maersk or Malaysian Airlines "S"

That's assuming it's an S at all

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Hm, could be interesting. Anyone know what colour a water suppression bottle looks like on a domestic airliner (if indeed they do carry them)?

http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/54178

Never even heard of them, but assume it's a fire extinguisher. Have come across round ones but they're red

 

[savoloysam]

Sorry I'm just not buying into the "For some unknown reason the plane just kept flying into nowhere completely off course. That nowhere being somewhere we don't know but wouldn't know how to get anyway" theory

 

[2hats]

Apparently Airbus Defence and Space have retasked 5 satellites (that would be two SPOT and Pleiades sats plus TerraSAR-X) to survey the Indian Ocean since not long after the flight disappeared and have so far covered 3.1 million sq km (that's about the size of India).

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Apparently Airbus Defence and Space have retasked 5 satellites (that would be two SPOT and Pleiades sats plus TerraSAR-X) to survey the Indian Ocean since not long after the flight disappeared and have so far covered 3.1 million sq km (that's about the size of India).

Desperate to put the boot in to Boeing after Air France...