Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement
- Thread starter ernestolynch
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quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
Perhaps you should go out there and show them how it's done.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And when I say that, Im not suggesting they were in a position to do much better than they have, short of paying more attention to quality not quantity, and thinking a bit before spreading some of the more obviously dodgy rumours. Its not their fault there is so little media on the ground etc.
What can we be reasonably sure of at this point? There have certainly been some protests with decent numbers today, the state has at the very least temporarily lost control of some locations, such as where the green book monument was destroyed, some vehicles have been burnt, at least a couple of building have been burnt, and plenty have died after being fired upon. Anything else?
What can we be reasonably sure of at this point? There have certainly been some protests with decent numbers today, the state has at the very least temporarily lost control of some locations, such as where the green book monument was destroyed, some vehicles have been burnt, at least a couple of building have been burnt, and plenty have died after being fired upon. Anything else?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I wouldnt need to, they arent in Libya. Id just need to speak the right language.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Two of the best posters on the these threads -falling out, resist the temp comrades.
And be able to tell an obviously dodgy rumour from a less obviously dodgy rumour.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Maybe we could sift what's posted and see and then post that?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Im sorry if you feel I am being too harsh on them, believe me Ive actually tried to tone down my actual thoughts.
I am very thankful to them for the translation, but thats about it really, Im not under any illusions that they have any capacity to do anything more at this stage,they arent the original source for any of the info they have passed on today it seems. And bear in mind Im only talking about a couple of twitter feeds, there might be others that are more discerning that I have missed.
I am very thankful to them for the translation, but thats about it really, Im not under any illusions that they have any capacity to do anything more at this stage,they arent the original source for any of the info they have passed on today it seems. And bear in mind Im only talking about a couple of twitter feeds, there might be others that are more discerning that I have missed.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks. I've no intention of having a big fallout with anyone over this, but at the same time I rarely hold back on what Im thinking, and the whole twitter thing has probably gotten to me too much this evening, I should have left it alone when I first said I would.
I only hope that many people in Libya have found ways to get some better sense of whats actually happening beyond their immediate location.
I was pleasantly surprised by how much quality info & sensible analysis came out of Egypt at all the right moments during events there, there was probably a great deal of ill-founded rumour too but at least there were lots of other sources to counteract it.
Let us hope that some of the promising news from Libya earlier had at least a grain of truth to it.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
About "Libyan Youth Movement"
They have a facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Libyan-Youth-Movement/133738650025293
...it currently which has this message posted at c. 8.30pm (GMT) - '4 hours ago'
"OUR TWITTER ACCOUNT CURRENTLY HACKED, TRYING TO GET IT BACK sorry for the delay we have more urgent news to come out they have taken us off"
However, they have previously posted on the FB page that twitter is their priority at the moment, so it might be they have sorted out their twitter but not taken down the FB warning.
As for where they are located, if they are 'legitimate' and who is to blame for spreading rumours...
1) It is my understanding that there are activists inside and outside Libya who work together to get around internet shutdowns and blocking (for example youtube has been blocked in Liyba for 1 year already but they know how to use proxies to get round this). As I understand it people inside Libya use whatever methods they can (landlines, mobile phones, texts, email, etc) and then someone who actually has a decent internet connection, the technical ability to avoid blocking and is in a safe location can then upload, retweet, post to facebook and so forth. You have to remember that most people in Libya don't have internet connections, but mobile phones are more widespread. If mobiles and internet go down then some people have landlines. If landlines go down then a very small number of people have satellite phones (some European activists have been putting some in place prior to the recent protests in the region). No everyone has very good English, so there is a need for translation and re-posting. We havbe to make allowances for the very difficult conditions - far worse than Egypt - that Libyan protesters are operating under. For some they do not have the option of remaining in Libya as they would have been killed years ago, but they still remain in touch with their networks and contacts back home.
2) As to 'who they are' & 'are they genuine' - one good sign is that they have multiple connections with other pro-democracy activists, in terms of journalists and activists elsewhere who are following them and who recommend them (from long before this week).
3) Blame for spreading rumours: this is difficult - they want to transmit as much raw inforamtion to the outside world and within Libya to other protesters and the Libyan population as possible, however if they don't filter it or 'edit' it then they can end up re-posting rubbish/misinformation. Mainstream journalists often err on the side of caution, as they want to remain 'neutral' and 'professional'. Activists don't want to remain neutral, but they do want to remain credible. They also don't want to be tricked by their opponents - either spreading fear so that people don't go out, or being so optimistic and gung-ho that people charge strait out into a trap. In some sense this is raw "information warfare" going on - both sides are trying to trick, demoralise, outwit, mislead the other, to gain some advantage or to influence the wider population and outside powers.
Conclusion: we have to try and read everything that comes out in different channels, do out best to analyse what is plausible, which bits conflict with other bits, which bits have been confirmed elsewhere, what time/location/source they really come from etc. there is no point simply re-posting every single tweet we see (we might as well just read twitter instead). I have been trying to be selective and construct my own 'time line' of what is going on and where, try and make sense of it for myself, and then share my 'version' with others. It is not easy and I can't pretend I am that confident about what has actually been happening, what is 'chinese whispers' and what is downright misinformation.
They have a facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Libyan-Youth-Movement/133738650025293
...it currently which has this message posted at c. 8.30pm (GMT) - '4 hours ago'
"OUR TWITTER ACCOUNT CURRENTLY HACKED, TRYING TO GET IT BACK sorry for the delay we have more urgent news to come out they have taken us off"
However, they have previously posted on the FB page that twitter is their priority at the moment, so it might be they have sorted out their twitter but not taken down the FB warning.
As for where they are located, if they are 'legitimate' and who is to blame for spreading rumours...
1) It is my understanding that there are activists inside and outside Libya who work together to get around internet shutdowns and blocking (for example youtube has been blocked in Liyba for 1 year already but they know how to use proxies to get round this). As I understand it people inside Libya use whatever methods they can (landlines, mobile phones, texts, email, etc) and then someone who actually has a decent internet connection, the technical ability to avoid blocking and is in a safe location can then upload, retweet, post to facebook and so forth. You have to remember that most people in Libya don't have internet connections, but mobile phones are more widespread. If mobiles and internet go down then some people have landlines. If landlines go down then a very small number of people have satellite phones (some European activists have been putting some in place prior to the recent protests in the region). No everyone has very good English, so there is a need for translation and re-posting. We havbe to make allowances for the very difficult conditions - far worse than Egypt - that Libyan protesters are operating under. For some they do not have the option of remaining in Libya as they would have been killed years ago, but they still remain in touch with their networks and contacts back home.
2) As to 'who they are' & 'are they genuine' - one good sign is that they have multiple connections with other pro-democracy activists, in terms of journalists and activists elsewhere who are following them and who recommend them (from long before this week).
3) Blame for spreading rumours: this is difficult - they want to transmit as much raw inforamtion to the outside world and within Libya to other protesters and the Libyan population as possible, however if they don't filter it or 'edit' it then they can end up re-posting rubbish/misinformation. Mainstream journalists often err on the side of caution, as they want to remain 'neutral' and 'professional'. Activists don't want to remain neutral, but they do want to remain credible. They also don't want to be tricked by their opponents - either spreading fear so that people don't go out, or being so optimistic and gung-ho that people charge strait out into a trap. In some sense this is raw "information warfare" going on - both sides are trying to trick, demoralise, outwit, mislead the other, to gain some advantage or to influence the wider population and outside powers.
Conclusion: we have to try and read everything that comes out in different channels, do out best to analyse what is plausible, which bits conflict with other bits, which bits have been confirmed elsewhere, what time/location/source they really come from etc. there is no point simply re-posting every single tweet we see (we might as well just read twitter instead). I have been trying to be selective and construct my own 'time line' of what is going on and where, try and make sense of it for myself, and then share my 'version' with others. It is not easy and I can't pretend I am that confident about what has actually been happening, what is 'chinese whispers' and what is downright misinformation.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes thanks for the quality thoughts on this subject classic, I dont think there is anything wrong with having a frank discussion about this stuff,especially as we've got so few confirmed facts from recent hours to talk about at the moment.
Im not too suspicious of whether they are genuine/have the right motivations, its the credibility thing thats annoyed me, I dont want them to damage their own credibility but at least one of the english-language twitter fields has really paid no attention to this consideration today and its upsetting to watch. I think I will spend some time before going to bed seeing which of the twitter accounts we know about have been the most sensible about these sorts of issues today, instead of focussing too much on the feed thats been the last cautious.
Im so thankful that we are able to see some videos from earlier at least, most of the stuff I posted a little earlier in the 'we can be reasonably sure this is true' has video evidence to back it up.
Im probably extra-sensitive about info from Libya because Im more than half expecting Gadaffi to employ some wacky tactics at some point.
Im not too suspicious of whether they are genuine/have the right motivations, its the credibility thing thats annoyed me, I dont want them to damage their own credibility but at least one of the english-language twitter fields has really paid no attention to this consideration today and its upsetting to watch. I think I will spend some time before going to bed seeing which of the twitter accounts we know about have been the most sensible about these sorts of issues today, instead of focussing too much on the feed thats been the last cautious.
Im so thankful that we are able to see some videos from earlier at least, most of the stuff I posted a little earlier in the 'we can be reasonably sure this is true' has video evidence to back it up.
Im probably extra-sensitive about info from Libya because Im more than half expecting Gadaffi to employ some wacky tactics at some point.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'll have to review the twitter stuff again tomorrow, Ive run out of brain capacity tonight.
Mind you I just had a little look at international media and it seems they have largely been reduced to using the same sources, albeit not reporting some of the more spectacular claims of the day. All the same the following from the AP includes a couple of the larger claims of the day:
And from the BBC:
Mind you I just had a little look at international media and it seems they have largely been reduced to using the same sources, albeit not reporting some of the more spectacular claims of the day. All the same the following from the AP includes a couple of the larger claims of the day:
And from the BBC:
elbows
Well-Known Member
It seems true but its not quite as big a story as it might seem, for it used to open fairly often, albeit in a controlled way. Here is the news about it, even though Im aware that this isnt really the right thread for this:
http://af.reuters.com/article/egypt...c=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=egyptNews&rpc=401
elbows
Well-Known Member
I missed this story the other day:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011217184949502493.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/2011217184949502493.html
classicdish
Well-Known Member
Remember that there is a time-lag for footage (needs to be taken home and uploaded) whereas text messages or mobile calls are faster. For example a lot of the footage today (Friday 18th) was actually showing events from Thursday 17th. Expect footage tomorrow from events today.
Another tip is to be aware of:
the local time (GMT+2)
sunrise/sunset = http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=252
pray times = http://www.islamicfinder.org/prayer...&email=&home=2011-2-18&lang=&aversion=&athan=
and try and work out actual locations on google maps (difficult due non-standardised spellings and far less detail for libya compared with for eg. Cairo)
For example it is currently 4am there, so *probably* quieter - although just pre-dawn is a standard time for military attacks.
Sunrise in Libya is 07:47am = 05:47 GMT
Morning prayers = 6:17am = 4.17am GMT - ending maybe 30 mins later?
By focussing on one city or key part of a city, trying to work out when/where is shown in footage and if it corresponds to the earlier twitter/etc - is it the right time of day? Does it correspond to what you can see on Google maps satellite view? Is the 'tweet' or footage *really* the first time it has been posted or just a re-tweet or repeat (helps work out when and where it actually happened?)
Even experienced, professionally-trained, well-equipped and better-guarded journalists have trouble making sense of what is going in events like these and have far more facilities for editing, researching, fact-checking and communicating. They often work in shifts (3 people x 8 hours each) to provide coverage, whereas the activists have to go to sleep and then try and catch-up when they wake. They don't have a set of colleagues checking stuff for them or analysing things - they just have to cope hour-by-hour with new info. You can see what the "world's best" have come up with (slower and not much better (worse?) than us lot on this thread) - so I am actually impressed by the Libyan tweeters/bloggers - they have done as well as could be humanly expected surely?
Another tip is to be aware of:
the local time (GMT+2)
sunrise/sunset = http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=252
pray times = http://www.islamicfinder.org/prayer...&email=&home=2011-2-18&lang=&aversion=&athan=
and try and work out actual locations on google maps (difficult due non-standardised spellings and far less detail for libya compared with for eg. Cairo)
For example it is currently 4am there, so *probably* quieter - although just pre-dawn is a standard time for military attacks.
Sunrise in Libya is 07:47am = 05:47 GMT
Morning prayers = 6:17am = 4.17am GMT - ending maybe 30 mins later?
By focussing on one city or key part of a city, trying to work out when/where is shown in footage and if it corresponds to the earlier twitter/etc - is it the right time of day? Does it correspond to what you can see on Google maps satellite view? Is the 'tweet' or footage *really* the first time it has been posted or just a re-tweet or repeat (helps work out when and where it actually happened?)
Even experienced, professionally-trained, well-equipped and better-guarded journalists have trouble making sense of what is going in events like these and have far more facilities for editing, researching, fact-checking and communicating. They often work in shifts (3 people x 8 hours each) to provide coverage, whereas the activists have to go to sleep and then try and catch-up when they wake. They don't have a set of colleagues checking stuff for them or analysing things - they just have to cope hour-by-hour with new info. You can see what the "world's best" have come up with (slower and not much better (worse?) than us lot on this thread) - so I am actually impressed by the Libyan tweeters/bloggers - they have done as well as could be humanly expected surely?
teqniq
DisMembered
Under the circumstances as amply illustrated in your post, I would have to agree.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
Actually hard information on twitter has, as far as I can see, pretty much dried up since around 10pm GMT (midnight Libyan time) since then it's mostly 're-tweets' of older stuff and discussion/comments.
Having said that there is maybe a bit more 'clarity' as people get their heads around all the different reports and some of the more outlandish claims are examined a bit more.
I am hoping that at least some journalists, activists and freelance/adventurers are going to seize the opportunity to slip across the border in / out of Egypt and Tunisia (or use a sim card to access their mobile phone coverage?). Hopefully people will still be able to get information out (eg via phone).
I am wondering if Gadafi is going to hunker down in Tripoli for a bit with the aim of waiting for the uprising to stall & unravel if they can't mobilise in Tripoli. Or is he going to rapidly launch a full-on military counter-attack?
I'm also wondering what kind of things (other than street protests in Tripoli) have the power to undermine him and make his military break ranks? For example the economic implications if business/banking/oil/communications grind to a halt and stay that way for a while? How long can things go on if electricity and fuel are switched off - and would the results favour Gadafi or the revolution? Do any foreign countries or businesses have any trump cards they can play? How likely is a internal palace coup - people (his sons, generals, other powerful figures) start fighting about who should take over from him? If he did start killing large numbers of people would Obama be tempted to send an aircraft carrier or ask Egypt to roll a few thousand tanks up to the Libyan border and have a quiet word with their opposite numbers to get rid of the killer-clowns?
Having said that there is maybe a bit more 'clarity' as people get their heads around all the different reports and some of the more outlandish claims are examined a bit more.
I am hoping that at least some journalists, activists and freelance/adventurers are going to seize the opportunity to slip across the border in / out of Egypt and Tunisia (or use a sim card to access their mobile phone coverage?). Hopefully people will still be able to get information out (eg via phone).
I am wondering if Gadafi is going to hunker down in Tripoli for a bit with the aim of waiting for the uprising to stall & unravel if they can't mobilise in Tripoli. Or is he going to rapidly launch a full-on military counter-attack?
I'm also wondering what kind of things (other than street protests in Tripoli) have the power to undermine him and make his military break ranks? For example the economic implications if business/banking/oil/communications grind to a halt and stay that way for a while? How long can things go on if electricity and fuel are switched off - and would the results favour Gadafi or the revolution? Do any foreign countries or businesses have any trump cards they can play? How likely is a internal palace coup - people (his sons, generals, other powerful figures) start fighting about who should take over from him? If he did start killing large numbers of people would Obama be tempted to send an aircraft carrier or ask Egypt to roll a few thousand tanks up to the Libyan border and have a quiet word with their opposite numbers to get rid of the killer-clowns?
Does anyone know why Al Jazeera English has become unavailable. On my computer, at least.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
It is still working for me
Maybe try different ways or watching:
AJ website
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
Youtube channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/AlJazeeraEnglish
Livestation
http://www.livestation.com/channels
Divisive Cotton
Now I just have my toy soldiers
They need to open up a front in Tripoli or they are fucked
Thanks for that, classic. It seems to be only the AJ website that isn't working. I keep getting a message say "video not working at the moment. Please try again later". Has been like that since yesterday evening.
The other links that classic posted seem to work fine. Just not the AJ website.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Bah, amount of info from Libya today is even worse than I expected. Stories about that airport being closed/taken over persist, but theres not much which would suggest that stories in previous days that whole cities had become free are true.
It sounds like a protest encampent in Benghazi suffered an elite military crackdown overnight, but there are conflicting reports as to whether there are still protesters near the court building or whether everyone was dispersed.
It sounds like a protest encampent in Benghazi suffered an elite military crackdown overnight, but there are conflicting reports as to whether there are still protesters near the court building or whether everyone was dispersed.
classicdish
Well-Known Member
Actually in the last hour or so there seems to have been a deluge of new (?!) info on twitter including this one:
@iyad_elbaghdadi (Iyad El-Baghdadi) "African mercenaries demand a safe exit out of Cyrene, or they will start executing the 150 Libyan soldiers in the camp. #Feb17 #Libya"
However, it is very hard to pick out genuinely new stuff from older stuff being repeated - many tweets are vague about whether they are referring to yesterday / last night / today (now) and vague about where things are taking place.
It seems there was an overnight (c.5am local time / 3am GMT) counter-attack by gadafi's forces on protesters camped out in front of the court house in Benghazi.
It also seems like there is a confusing mixture of protests in multiple places, attacks by gadafi loyalists but also elements of the army and police siding with protesters in places.
As for which cities have been 'seized' - again the picture is confused: possibly back-and-forward, with protesters in eastern cities virtually taking over, then counter-attacks by mercenaries and elite units (inc. troops under saadi gadaffi & khamis gadafi). Protesters and some police/army then fought off some of these to varying degrees, but the fighting/killing is continuing and it just seems like it's becoming a bloody mess with one reported body death count (in benghazi) around 120 and rising (which is a bit alarming because yesterday afternoon it seemed nearer 60).
I have to cease-and-desist for today (need to get some sleep in now before working tonight) but I am really hoping that the Libyan army can see the writing on the wall and decide to draw a line under gadafi today before this gets any worse (I've heard that cracks are starting to appear in the military including some senior generals).
PS. There are demos today in London (embassy) and Manchester (BBC centre) if you want to show support and make some contacts with UK-Libyan activists (I am sure they will be very grateful for any help and even just moral support and solidarity at this time). If you want to do something online then communicate with those people posting on twitter who you consider to have their heads screwed on correctly and see if you can help out in any way online, or maybe just make constructive suggestions and comments about what is going on.
In the last few weeks I went a couple of the daily demos outside the Egyptian embassy, helped make a banner, did some driving, made a couple of suggestions that were picked up on by people, did a bit of chanting and walking round London streets w/signs and chatting to Londoners and arab ex-pats, plus helped out my anglo-egyptian friend who sent material assistance via his cousin to Tahrir. I don't want to brag about it, just want to recommend doing this to anyone (most people) who have been both horrified and elated, sadden and impressed over the last few weeks by what's going on and the bravery of people out there - believe me you won't regret doing it...
Good luck everyone!
@iyad_elbaghdadi (Iyad El-Baghdadi) "African mercenaries demand a safe exit out of Cyrene, or they will start executing the 150 Libyan soldiers in the camp. #Feb17 #Libya"
However, it is very hard to pick out genuinely new stuff from older stuff being repeated - many tweets are vague about whether they are referring to yesterday / last night / today (now) and vague about where things are taking place.
It seems there was an overnight (c.5am local time / 3am GMT) counter-attack by gadafi's forces on protesters camped out in front of the court house in Benghazi.
It also seems like there is a confusing mixture of protests in multiple places, attacks by gadafi loyalists but also elements of the army and police siding with protesters in places.
As for which cities have been 'seized' - again the picture is confused: possibly back-and-forward, with protesters in eastern cities virtually taking over, then counter-attacks by mercenaries and elite units (inc. troops under saadi gadaffi & khamis gadafi). Protesters and some police/army then fought off some of these to varying degrees, but the fighting/killing is continuing and it just seems like it's becoming a bloody mess with one reported body death count (in benghazi) around 120 and rising (which is a bit alarming because yesterday afternoon it seemed nearer 60).
I have to cease-and-desist for today (need to get some sleep in now before working tonight) but I am really hoping that the Libyan army can see the writing on the wall and decide to draw a line under gadafi today before this gets any worse (I've heard that cracks are starting to appear in the military including some senior generals).
PS. There are demos today in London (embassy) and Manchester (BBC centre) if you want to show support and make some contacts with UK-Libyan activists (I am sure they will be very grateful for any help and even just moral support and solidarity at this time). If you want to do something online then communicate with those people posting on twitter who you consider to have their heads screwed on correctly and see if you can help out in any way online, or maybe just make constructive suggestions and comments about what is going on.
In the last few weeks I went a couple of the daily demos outside the Egyptian embassy, helped make a banner, did some driving, made a couple of suggestions that were picked up on by people, did a bit of chanting and walking round London streets w/signs and chatting to Londoners and arab ex-pats, plus helped out my anglo-egyptian friend who sent material assistance via his cousin to Tahrir. I don't want to brag about it, just want to recommend doing this to anyone (most people) who have been both horrified and elated, sadden and impressed over the last few weeks by what's going on and the bravery of people out there - believe me you won't regret doing it...
Good luck everyone!
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the info.
AlJazeera have put together an updated report, which includes footage of the armed men with yellow hardhats which I mentioned last night. But most of the info in the media today continues to be the sort of things that was floating around on twitter last night.
AlJazeera have put together an updated report, which includes footage of the armed men with yellow hardhats which I mentioned last night. But most of the info in the media today continues to be the sort of things that was floating around on twitter last night.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The twitterer ShababLibya that I was rather critical of last night, has posted a link to the following video which they claim is proof that 'Army in Benghazi handed over to the anti government protesters'. But its so shaky and lacking in context that Im not sure that its proof of much at this stage, unfortunately, plus its not entirely clear what the tweet is even supposed to mean exactly:
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