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Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

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What do you reckon? Not much longer?
 
Divisive Cotton said:
The rebels have now taken Libya's third city, Misurata. Pics of protesters riding on tanks - they're going to need them for the assault on Tripoli.

They are going to kick Gaddafi's arse so hard.
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The Misurata army regiment joined the protesters yesterday (Wednesday) afternoon (6 reported deaths there yesterday).

Today there has been reports of a counter-attack by the "Hamza Brigade", first on crowds near the airport but after this was defended they are now attacking the city centre.

(all this from reports on the AJE live blog)
 
lopsidedbunny said:
You might want to join an Libyan Opposition group here in Britain if all this info would be of any use, just make sure they aren't Gaddafi's men!
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I'd hope that most people here would already consider themselves part of an Libyan / Egyptian / Human / whatever opposition group. My only real contribution has been publicising the London demos (see the protest, direct action and demos forum). I'm a bit sad to see that no other urbanites kept it up-to-date while I was away from my PC due to work last Sat -> Tues. I don't have any special contacts or knowledge that isn't available to anyone else with an internet connection.
 
From Al Jazz:
There are multiple reports of gun battles are taking place between securituy forces and protesters in the town of Az Zawiyah, 50 km west of Tripoli, on Thursday. Retuers reports that gun fire has broken out there, while sources tell Al Jazeera that the amry attacked the town this morning, firing shots at protesters for roughly four hours.
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He'll cling on desperately, but I think his fate is sealed now
 
As I understand it the Misurata regiment is regular army and joined the protesters yesterday. The 'Hamza Brigade' is one of gadafi's elite revoluntionary guard regiments, and they have turned up and attacked the city today. Another one - the "Gaddafi Brigade" has attacked Zawia today and have been using anti-aircraft guns to shot at crowds (up to 100 dead today reported so far - battles are ongoing). The pattern seems to be they are attacking outwards from Tripoli (which is full of pro-gadafi militia in jeeps) into nearby suburbs and neighbouring cities, rather than letting opposition establish themselves any closer to downtown Tripoli.
 
Sky News:

Reports suggest that, in the light of the govenments late reaction to events unfolding in Libya, Foreign Secretary William Hague is enroute to Venezuela where he hopes to find refuge with the regime of President Chavez
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Streathamite said:
He'll cling on desperately, but I think his fate is sealed now
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That Zawia is 50km away doesn't mean that there are any organised/coordinated army and protester forces in the region that are able to roll in on Tripoli and get rid of him immediately.

He still holds Surt (the home city of many of his elite forces) (300 miles east) and is counter-attacking against Misurata (125 miles east), Zawia (30 miles west) and Zuwarah (70 miles west). He also still holds several airports. As well as tanks (and people able to use them) you'd need fuel and ammunition (which he kept restricted to prevent military coups). Also if you lack air cover and organised infantry support you would be vunerable to anti-tank units and missile attacks ... this is in a conventional military sense.

Gadafi may be setting up a defensive 'perimeter', bunker down in Tripoli and then try and counter-attack - or simply vindictively destroy everything outside of his 400 mile coastal strip, before the Americans decide to drop a bunker-buster and/or the US marine corps on his head.
 
AJE reports that Gadafi planning sabotage to blame on Al Qaeda then state tv warns that.......:


“URGENT: Voice records have been seized in the hands of Al Qaeda members and its members in the city of Alzawia aiming to carry out sabtoage actions.”

http://www.libyafeb17.com/?p=2295
 
elbows said:
...It seems possible to get a reasonable idea of what the situation was in most of the country as of a couple of days ago, but Tripoli seems almost impossible to learn much about at the moment. Any ideas?
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Re. Tripoli:

My impression is that there were very limited protests until the evening of Sunday 20th (about the same time as the final assault on the base in Behghazi). At this point - just prior to Seif El-Islam speech - there are reports of around 2000 anti-government protesters gathered in Green Square, of take-overs of TV and radio stations, of the Souq al Juma military base and of government buildings on fire. However the end of the speech also seemed to signal the unleashing of militia in jeeps driving round shooting everyone outside, of snipers and of reported air-strikes, so that by Monday night there was seemingly noone out on the streets except for militia.

Monday night also saw reported air strikes on other western cities that had become "free" (eg Misurata & Zawia), tues and wed saw militia and tanks heading out towards suburbs and towards nearby cities, and today reports of counter-attacks by elite units.

Seems like a counter attack based on three phases:

1) airstrikes (maybe aimed at tanks/ammunition/etc).
2) militia attacking and shooting anyone and everyone at random (to get everyone off the streets).
3) revolutionary guard (to try and take back key locations eg airfields).

Having said this, it's all so confused and vague that it's hard to tell which ways things are going.

Another take on things is the Robert Fisk piece this morning:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinio...i--a-city-in-the-shadow-of-death-2223977.html
...which may or may not tie up with what I have posted above...
 
stuff_it said:
And, hmm, bunkering down - cause that usually goes so well...
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Well it means you can slaughter everyone who attacks you and it gives you time to launch a counter-attack.

However, he doesn't really stand much chance of regaining the east and will only 'hold' the north-west by terrorising the population and possibly destroying most of it.

Sadly I have yet to see any evidence that the regular army is organised or equipped enough to take Tripoli (although there is not enough info about which and how many units have turned against Gadafi), or that unarmed or lightly armed protesters have much hope of repeating what they achieved in Benghazi - which means we may not see a full-on assault on his base in Tripoli.

However, I doubt he would be able to hold out very long - although this does mean that he may well launch a counter-attack, go on a rampage and start destroying the whole country in "conventional warfare" style.

I am hoping that either 1) people on the inside pull the plug on him before this happens or 2) parts of the military who have already rebelled are actually equipped, organised and on their way to Al Azizia.

Option 3) is Obama managing to drop a bunker-buster on his head, but this is kind of out of fashion these days for some reason.

...there are probably options 4) 5) and 6) as well.... (and knowing my luck this post will already be out of date by the time I hit "Post Quick Reply")
 
While he's bunkered down one night everyone in Tripoli should just quietly move out. Then they can leave a loop to state tv to feed into his bunker telling him everything is lovely while the rest of the country gets on with life.
 
classicdish said:
One bit of Fisk's I am wondering about is:

"Talking to Libyans in Tripoli and expatriates at the airport, it is clear that neither tanks nor armour were used in the streets of Tripoli. Air attacks targeted Benghazi and other towns, but not the capital."

Compared to: http://kiaoragaza.wordpress.com/2011/02/22/many-reports-of-warplanes-attacking-libya-protesters/ which says different...
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Yeah, Ive been speculating about the realities of this stuff since the news went crazy about it a few nights back.

There have certainly been reports from Tripoli that suggest that people were scared by aircraft but that these aircraft were not actually attacking masses of protesters there, but rather certain munitions dumps. There have been reports of lots of bombs, and of no bombs at all. Reports of fire from the air, reports that suggest the firing was actually coming from the ground or from snipers.I cant remember seeing any photos yet of damage that was certain to have been caused by bombs, even in Benghazi.

What is the reality? I've no way to find out, neither possibility would surprise me, nor would some kind of middle option. The lockdown in Tripoli means I dont expect to find out one way or another for some times yet. And for many days there has been an extreme variance in the reports in general from people in Tripoli, I dont know if this is just due to differences between the areas they have been and other parts of the city, how much could be regime disinformation, how much is fear running wild or even some anti-regime propaganda.
 
It's debatable which way 'propaganda' about bombs would work however: threat of bombs and massive destruction could terrify people into backing down, thinking they won't win or thinking they should just settle for holding the east. On the other hand it could drive even more of his supporters away, make people even more angry, make people quicken their efforts to kill him off or even provoke earlier and stronger international intervention against him (and in turn any international intervention that did happen may also have unpredictable consequences...)

I am just going to file it under 'unknown / possible / unconfirmed' for now.
 
RAVOLUTION!

@TravellerW (Mo-ha-med) "#Gaddafi: "AlQaeda is distributing drugs to demonstrators". Hey, where were they during the revo. in #Egypt? Wld have been so much cooler!"

@rafik (Rafik Dammak) "@TravellerW your pills were in KFC meals"

@TravellerW (Mo-ha-med) "@rafik aha! that's why the stuff tasted so different.. and i thought it was just the taste of freedom..."

@TravellerW (Mo-ha-med): "#Gaddafi says demonstrators are high on LSD. Introducing the new #WordOfTheDay: Rave+Revolution = #RAVOLUTION ! #Libya"

@ShotgunShack (Shotgun Shack): "@TravellerW Pretty sure joining a crowd & watching people get gunned down is at the bottom of the list of "fun things to do while on LSD""

@Phil_Muldini (Phil Devine): "@TravellerW Old Gadaf can't have tried LSD if he thinks that's what it does."

@TravellerW (Mo-ha-med): "I'm guessing his dealer cheated him."

@people11revolt (people's revolution): "@TravellerW The #Ravolution Rats say that the mercenary machine gunfire totally makes trails but the warplanes are a major downer. #Libya"
 
classicdish said:
It's debatable which way 'propaganda' about bombs would work however: threat of bombs and massive destruction could terrify people into backing down, thinking they won't win or thinking they should just settle for holding the east. On the other hand it could drive even more of his supporters away, make people even more angry, make people quicken their efforts to kill him off or even provoke earlier and stronger international intervention against him (and in turn any international intervention that did happen may also have unpredictable consequences...)

I am just going to file it under 'unknown / possible / unconfirmed' for now.
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Agreed. I wonder though how many people denied outside info actually believe anything much in his speeches. He can't have done anything for his credibility for anyone. It's down to whether they think he can carry out his threats.

Well people in Tripoli have mostly stayed in, it seems. Perhaps they need others to come to give them courage, or at least to know that everywhere else (nearly) is taken. However those who have turned their backs on Gadafi all say that it's because he has disgusted them. That it's too much that he's doing this to his people. So they claim, anyhow. There might be a line he can cross for others too.

AJE showing more on the tribal leaders meeting just now. Good to see the big guys getting together.

And AJE says security officers have resigned, these are part of the more trusted circles around him. Not the closest, but there are probably many who are not happy but fear for themselves, or their families if they don't obey. Maybe they will look for their chance to get away.
 
Frankly I take all media reports and quotes with a massive grain of salt. The scope for propaganda is huge especially from western governments.
 
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