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Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

Him and me both

I think everyone would prefer that the Libyan people can themselves overthrow their tyrannical regime and they are so far.

And there seems some evidence that the people are wisely staying away from the streets of Tripoli at times of greatest danger.

But to overthrow Gaddafi, and be rid of him for good they will have to confront his remaining loyal forces one way or another.
 
it doesn't really sound as if there are many remaining "loyal" forces tbf. it's more about the vacuum that is invariably left behind and whether vested interests already established can fill such spaces quickly or can something truly new emerge?
 
it doesn't really sound as if there are many remaining "loyal" forces tbf. it's more about the vacuum that is invariably left behind and whether vested interests already established can fill such spaces quickly or can something truly new emerge?

Well theres enough left to have prevented Tripoli from falling so far.

Several days after the talk of various anti-regime forces heading for Tripoli, there is still no information at all to suggest that significant anti-regime armed forces are waging a battle in Tripoli, even on its outskirts. Then again there is a huge information void.

Assuming the regime does fall, the void combined with Libya's oil production & oil reserves does make me unwilling to completely rule out the idea that external powers will intervene in a big way at some point.
 
Fuck me even the weather is prone to rumours at this point:

ShababLibya
Tripoli currently experiencing very high winds, and rain, some say trees are also being blown to the ground

And people wondered why I bitch about some of the Libya stuff on twitter.

Granted the weather is bad enough that the US evacuation boats departure has been delayed, but even so.
 
@ elbows: knowing the weather is helpful when viewing new footage, for example if a new youtube video is all sunny/clear then it suggests it is at least a day or two old.
 
@ elbows: knowing the weather is helpful when viewing new footage, for example if a new youtube video is all sunny/clear then it suggests it is at least a day or two old.

Yeah, I wasnt knocking the concept of knowing what the weather was like, merely the complete meltdown my mind is suffering due to exposing myself to too many rumours, absurdity is not absent from this chaotic situation.

It seems Im wary of and allergic to hype in most of its forms, not just advertising etc.
 
@elbows ... this is why I am using a "spreadsheet" broken down by location versus date/time. I started by making a list of the 20 biggest Libyan cities. I am currently trying to work out where the various Tripoli suburbs are located. Yesterday I spent a few hours trying to work out where all the Libyan military bases were located, how many of the various battalions (eg. infantry/armoured/air defence etc.) existed (for example all sources state 10 tank battalions with about 400-500 operational tanks, but it is hard to work out how these are distributed around the country. In other words, rather than simply wait around for news, I am trying to be proactive. For example my spreadsheet as at least five large cities listed with nothing reported on twitter/AJE/BBC/etc, although it might just mean I have to search a bit harder because they haven't been getting much attention.

So rather than passively soaking up every single bit of raw data / comment /rumour being posted by people and just hoping something coherent will emerge, better to actively search for key bits of information, to ask specific questions, to have your own way of structuring things (for example in the Egyptian context some people chose to focus on labour/workers/industrial action and therefore paid more attention to Port Suez, instead of just Tahrir Square).
 
Just in case anyone has missed it, there is another thread covering upcoming and previous UK-based protests: http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/threads/343743-Protests-outside-Libyan-Embassy-in-London

London: Tuesday 22nd Feb

"Hundreds of the UK's Libyan community came to London from all over the country to protest against the Gaddafi government and the UK governments association with the despotic regime. Close to a thousand people gathered in front of Downing Street waving pre-Gaddafi flags and chanting anti-Gaddafi slogans. The protest lasted around 3 hours and finished when Libyan community leaders handed in a petition to Downing Street calling for sanctions against Colonel Gaddafi and a no-fly zone over Libya to stop mercenaries from entering the country."

more photos: http://www.demotix.com/news/600987/anti-gaddafi-protest-london

600978.jpg




Next demos:

Thursday 24th Feb, 2pm - 6pm
Protest outside Libyan embassy in London

Friday 25th Feb
Assemble 3.30pm @ Bahrain Embassy, 30 Belgrave Square, London SW1X 8QB
March via the Libyan Embassy to Downing Street
Supported by: Libya Watch for Human Rights • British Libyan Solidarity Campaign • Yemeni Human Rights Watch • Egypt Liberation Initiative • Bahraini Freedom Movement • Stop the War Coalition • Palestine Solidarity Campaign • British Muslim Initiative
more info: http://www.stopwar.org.uk/

Saturday 26th Feb, 11am - 1pm
Protest outside Libyan embassy in London

Saturday 26th Feb, 2pm - 5pm
Trafalgar Square
"For all those countries who are oppressed and need a voice!
Libya, Yemen, Egypt, Morocco & Many more!"
more info: http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=203519199663362

...for more details see other thread: http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/threads/343743-Protests-outside-Libyan-Embassy-in-London
 
Now the journalists are in Libya there are some amazing stories of bravery coming through. In Benghazi the locals went through with 6 days of hand-to-hand combat with the Republican Guard to capture the airport. They even faced down attacks from helicopters and planes. They don't need NATO or a no-fly zone in order to topple Gaddafi
 
A statement put out on Libyan TV:

"He who submits his weapon and shows remorse will be exempted from being pursued legally. The committee calls on citizens to cooperate and inform on those who led on the youth or supplied them with money, equipment or intoxicating substances and hallucinatory pills," the statement said.

Back to this thing about them being on drugs again. They has said this so many times now they I think they actually believe this is true and it is an explanation why the people are rebelling
 
The rebels have now taken Libya's third city, Misurata. Pics of protesters riding on tanks - they're going to need them for the assault on Tripoli.

They are going to kick Gaddafi's arse so hard.
 
I sure hope they get their heads together on this one with all this equipment "lying around" it's a pity that noone can fly the military jets sitting at the bases...
 
@elbows ... this is why I am using a "spreadsheet" broken down by location versus date/time. I started by making a list of the 20 biggest Libyan cities. I am currently trying to work out where the various Tripoli suburbs are located. Yesterday I spent a few hours trying to work out where all the Libyan military bases were located, how many of the various battalions (eg. infantry/armoured/air defence etc.) existed (for example all sources state 10 tank battalions with about 400-500 operational tanks, but it is hard to work out how these are distributed around the country. In other words, rather than simply wait around for news, I am trying to be proactive. For example my spreadsheet as at least five large cities listed with nothing reported on twitter/AJE/BBC/etc, although it might just mean I have to search a bit harder because they haven't been getting much attention.

So rather than passively soaking up every single bit of raw data / comment /rumour being posted by people and just hoping something coherent will emerge, better to actively search for key bits of information, to ask specific questions, to have your own way of structuring things (for example in the Egyptian context some people chose to focus on labour/workers/industrial action and therefore paid more attention to Port Suez, instead of just Tahrir Square).

You might want to join an Libyan Opposition group here in Britain if all this info would be of any use, just make sure they aren't Gaddafi's men!
 
The rebels have now taken Libya's third city, Misurata. Pics of protesters riding on tanks - they're going to need them for the assault on Tripoli.

They are going to kick Gaddafi's arse so hard.

I sort of lost confidence that there will be an assault on Tripoli like that, although I dont rule it out. Reasons for loss of confidence are reading about the capability and structure of the military, the fact we first heard about this sort of stuff quite some days ago now yet there is nothing to suggest its happened yet and no explanation for the delay, the regime still having air capabilities some days ago, and that the pictures I have seenhave featured stationary vehicles and people staring at heavy weapons or waving the ammunition triumphantly instead of getting ready to use it. Although I've no way to really know because we're only seeing a fraction of what is going on.
 
In other words, rather than simply wait around for news, I am trying to be proactive. For example my spreadsheet as at least five large cities listed with nothing reported on twitter/AJE/BBC/etc, although it might just mean I have to search a bit harder because they haven't been getting much attention.

So rather than passively soaking up every single bit of raw data / comment /rumour being posted by people and just hoping something coherent will emerge, better to actively search for key bits of information, to ask specific questions, to have your own way of structuring things (for example in the Egyptian context some people chose to focus on labour/workers/industrial action and therefore paid more attention to Port Suez, instead of just Tahrir Square).

If I spoke the right language or had any contacts on the ground myself then I would have tried to do some of this. Instead I have to deal with what info I can get in English, and you know I dont just soak it up passively, I question it in all sorts of ways, especially when contradictions seem apparent.

Anyways how are your efforts going, is any sort of picture emerging that is better than what the media and twitter are telling us? It seems possible to get a reasonable idea of what the situation was in most of the country as of a couple of days ago, but Tripoli seems almost impossible to learn much about at the moment. Any ideas?
 
Well they are not going to assault Tripoli until they have taken all the towns around it

Fair point which I guess is reasonably likely. There is some evidence that places even close to Tripoli have fallen, although as of yesterday it sounded like there are still battles going on for some other places in the west.

One of the extreme difficulties I have with trying to analyse the current picture is that if we know little about the strength and location of pro-regime forces, we know even less about the forces that are fighting on the side of the people. Battles are clearly still beig won by anti-regime people, but away from Benghazi there is very little info as to the scale of these battles or how they were won. Even in Benghazi where we have a bit more info, its not really clear the extent,size & capability of the armed anti-regime forces that won the struggle there, nor whether they all stayed put afterwards or moved on to new battles.
 
tweet:


Amazing move by eastern #Libya citizens: Holding their own counter-propaganda press conference live on Aljazeera!

AJE did briefly cut to a tribal meeting in Albayda but are not reporting on it just now. Perhaps they will summarize.
 
read from bottom. I'm not sure yet whether this is leaders of a tribe or tribal leaders from several tribes meeting.

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: I also assure everyone that I don't seek any official seat now or later
1 minute ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: We assure you that Azzawiya is liberated and beat back #Gaddafi troops
1 minute ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: We call for a decisive action from the brave youths of the capital
1 minute ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: Sign "Libya is one tribe" raised in the hall
2 minutes ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: Chants in the hall for the youths of the capital now
2 minutes ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: All talk about separation or an Islamic emirate in this city are patently false
3 minutes ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: We call upon all world powers to stop the massacres and take decisive measures
3 minutes ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: Chants "We want to unify Libya!"
4 minutes ago

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Ex-Minster of Justice in eastern #Libya tribal convention: The world must stop #Gaddafi from committing more massacres
4 minutes ago
»

iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Chants now in Al-Bayda at tribal leader meeting: "Tripoli is our capital!" #Feb17 #Libya
6 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply
 
I've got to rush to catch a train in a bit but from a brief look at twitter there seem to be reports of fresh pro-Gadaffi counter-attacks on some places that have been declared to have fallen to the people in the last 24-48 hours, such as Misurata and Azzawiya.

This is apparently the scene at Benghazi airport:

 
This points in the same fearful direction that my thoughts have been going in recent days:

Iyad El-Baghdadi
#Libya ex-Minster of Justice live from Al-Bayda: Free army officers have no real weapons, all weapons are with #Gaddafi

Im sure they have some weapons in some places but probably not a lot. In many places the people have taken its quite possible that they have done it by sheers numbers. We dont know if there is a single active anti-regime tank anywhere for example.
 
I can't see a NFZ being a realistic possibility as it would have to be almost totally a US effort. Which is going to be politically tricky once they start splashing LARAF Floggers all over the desert. The RAF had seven air defence squadrons when we were doing OSW/ONW over the 'raq. Now they have three and one is standing down next week.
 
The no fly zone seems increasingly like bolting the stable door after the horse has bolted, ground battles and street-by-street lockdowns seem to be where the action has been in recent days.
 
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