wheres Dylans and his genuine revolutionaries taking a bit of a wrong turn now ? As every day passes this thing seems more and more pre planned , like what happened Chavez in Caracas . Almost identical . A media blitz unquestioningly accusing him of massacring his own people preceding an attempted coup led by all manner of reactionary fuckwits looking to get their hands on the oil . With the trail leadin right back to the states .
There are a number if differences. Its been quite some years now since the attempted coup against Chavez, so I may have remembered some details wrong but I'll have a stab at this anyway. In Venezuela the opposition were allowed to operate, and they had extremely powerful private media assets at their disposal. These were used to deliver the anti-Chavez propaganda in a manner of ways that were far more dramatic than anything we've seen in Libya. Snipers killing people and video footage suggesting Chavistas were to blame used by networks, the withholding of a variety of important details about what was happening on key coup days, complete failure to acknowledge or cover pro-Chavez counter-demonstrations after the coup kicked in, and rather stupidly some gloating on tv about how they had planned this coup. There was some proper preparation put into this coup, and various players had their recorded speeches all ready to go hours in advance, it wasnt a total shambles.
The buildup to that coup was also rather different, in that recent policies by Chavez provided a clear reason why a variety of interests would want to topple him at that time. The opposition were well established and powerful, strikes and protests were a factor, US support of opposition and dislike of Chavez was far more obvious, and as already mentioned there was some proper planning involved.
There are a few similarities with Libya I suppose, and it can be a tad hard to compare fairly due to the extreme lack of power the opposition in Libya were starting from, meaning that even if things in Libya had been planned for quite a while the chances of it turning into a shambles were greater. However its still quite plausible that the shambles is because this was not a well planned coup at all. If it has been driven largely by outside interests then there are some big questions about when they really started to get involved. Rather than something that had been planned for some time, it could have been a rush job conceived of only when other countries started to have uprisings, or it could have been a decision to get involved only once something had actually started stirring in Libya itself. I would assume that poor past relations with Gaddafi would mean that some plans and assets for overthrowing Gaddafi would have been established over time as part of business as usual, but without any specific emphasis on trying to turn any of these plans into reality, and perhaps they then dusted this stuff off once 2011 started to demonstrate what was in store for the region.
What is clear is that at some point a variety of irresistible opportunities presented themselves in Libya. The opportunity to get rid of someone who was a bit of a pain to deal with at times, to divert attention away from gruesome events in other countries, politicians of certain countries getting to have a war that they hope might help them politically, to reassert the power of military means as a way to achieve results rather than that pesky people power making people think they actually have a say, and to try to make international rhetoric about human rights and common values ring slightly less hollow, no matter if the underlying values are urinated on my the deeds carried out in the name of such things. Add the need for Libyas oil exports not to be unavailable for too long, and how could they resist getting involved?
Looking on the bright side, I hate oppressive police states, and there remains some chance that when this turmoil ends the average Libyan may eventually end up better off in this regard at least. I continue to wait without presumption to see whether a more accurate glimpse into public opinion in Libya will actually be possible at some point, eg if Gaddafi actually goes, how Tripoli will react. Im not exactly optimistic about some aspects of the possible futures for Libya and its people, it seems a far safer bet that Gaddafi will go than to bet that what will emerge instead will be loads better. All the same, given some of the insights we've had into the likely level of control, the style of regime propaganda and the level of loyalty that is demanded, we might expect that Gaddafis downfall would give Libyans at least one sort of freedom that they have lacked for decades. Sure its just one component of peoples lives, and rings a tad hollow if the economics are evil, but I cant really sit here in a country where I've been allowed to express strong criticisms of the government without much fear, and claim that such a freedom is meaningless, that it is worth putting up with power-maddened control freaks who tolerate no dissent just because some of their international political positions or economic policies suck less than the overwhelming forces that dominate todays globe.