Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[likesfish]

gaddafi is a genuine batshit monster leaving the rebels to fight an army with aks and hope did'nt work in bosnia or iraq.
we've spent all this money on death tech might as well drop it on some one deserving.

 

[quimcunx]

Iyad El-Baghdadi
iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi

@danielordas I've very skeptical myself because this is a new source I just got introduced to now. I can't vouch for him.

He would have done well to mention this point first.

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

.

 

[weltweit]

it's not like it would change the 'allies' 5 stage plan anyway - they're only at stage 1 now - it aint gunna stop, even if their goal is dead already !

I think Gaddafi dying could make a step change, depending on what the rest of his regime and sons decided to do next. I imagine there are a lot of people in the regime, close to Gaddafi, Saif for example that could not give up without a fight but it might persuade a tranche of others to defect to the rebels.

 

[dylans]

I suggested earlier in the thread that a West Libya and an East Libya could emerge, but that depends, without Gaddafi, and assuming the rebels win through in east and west, who knows.

Are the anti Gaddafi feelings less in the West, or is it just that they are nearer Gaddafi's base that they have been successfully repressed.

It is pretty clear that this has always been an uprising divided by regionality. Cyrenaica has always had conflict with Tripolitania. Tribal divisions too run across regional lines. One reason the old pre Gaddafi flag of King Idris is flown in Benghazi is because of religious and political loyalties to the Sanoussi tribe. The largest anti Gaddafi tribe in Libya.. King Idris was a Senoussi. The same tribe that holds sway in Benghazi and much of the East and is supported by a third of Libyans. By waving his flag the rebels in Benghazi are actually showing tribal affiliation.

Likewise Gaddafi has tribal loyalties in Tripoli, the Qadhadhfa.
That is not to say that the uprising isn't a genuinely popular one. It is and it is part of the inspiration that has been provided by Egypt and Tunisia. It is in that sense, an Arab revolt and can't simply be dismissed as tribal or regional and I have never been one to dismiss the uprising as sponsored by the West. However, we are fooling ourselves if we don't see the tribal and regional dyanimics that run through it. Tribal and regional divisions that are now being exploited both by Gaddafi and the west. In a nutshell Libya is a fiction. There really is two countries here and this regional division is what we are seeing unravel now.

 

[paolo]

In an ideal world I'd have wanted the libyan people to do this by themselves, but it's become pretty clear that they're not going to be able to achieve this, so the choice isn't between letting the libyan people do it themselves and US intervention to impose a new client state. The choice now is between

option a
Allowing Gaddafi free reign to seize back control of the country probably with severe repercussions for everyone who's dared to rise up against him, and not abandoning these brave people to their fate entirely

option b
Offering those who've not already fallen back under his control a fighting chance of achieving their goal of getting rid of gaddafi, or at least staying alive and not under his rule.

Given those options, I choose option B. If you want to abandon these people to their fate in favour of geopolitical thinking, that's your choice. I put the fate of the people who've dared to rise up first, geopolitical considerations come second.

that.

 

[dylanredefined]

well according to the BBC the bombing has already started.

 

[rekil]

I think it far more likely that everyone on this thread would have risen up against gaddafi, some would now be dead, some in prison being tortured, some in hiding, most of those still free desperately hoping for outside military help, and a few preferring to make a valiant last stand without US help.

There's at least two here that would be grassing people up left right and centre.

 

[weltweit]

It is pretty clear that this has always been an uprising divided by regionality. Cyrenaica has always had conflict with Tripolitania. Tribal divisions too run across regional lines. One reason the old pre Gaddafi flag of King Idris is flown in Benghazi is because of religious and political loyalties to the Sanoussi tribe. The largest anti Gaddafi tribe in Libya.. King Idris was a Senoussi. The same tribe that holds sway in Benghazi and much of the East and is supported by a third of Libyans. By waving his flag the rebels in Benghazi are actually showing tribal affiliation.

Likewise Gaddafi has tribal loyalties in Tripoli, the Qadhadhfa.
That is not to say that the uprising isn't a genuinely popular one. It is and it is part of the inspiration that has been provided by Egypt and Tunisia. It is in that sense, an Arab revolt and can't simply be dismissed as tribal or regional and I have never been one to dismiss the uprising as sponsored by the West. However, we are fooling ourselves if we don't see the tribal and regional dyanimics that run through it. Tribal and regional divisions that are now being exploited both by Gaddafi and the west. In a nutshell Libya is a fiction. There really is two countries here and this regional division is what we are seeing unravel now.

That is interesting. I was not aware of the tribal angles.

There were a few western towns and cities that Gaddafi had to supress before he turned his attention to the east so it seems possible that there is plenty of latent resistance in his own tribe. Do you think that is possible?

 

[free spirit]

It is pretty clear that this has always been an uprising divided by regionality. Cyrenaica has always had conflict with Tripolitania. Tribal divisions too run across regional lines. One reason the old pre Gaddafi flag of King Idris is flown in Benghazi is because of religious and political loyalties to the Sanoussi tribe. The largest anti Gaddafi tribe in Libya.. King Idris was a Senoussi. The same tribe that holds sway in Benghazi and much of the East and is supported by a third of Libyans. By waving his flag the rebels in Benghazi are actually showing tribal affiliation.

Likewise Gaddafi has tribal loyalties in Tripoli, the Qadhadhfa.
That is not to say that the uprising isn't a genuinely popular one. It is and it is part of the inspiration that has been provided by Egypt and Tunisia. It is in that sense, an Arab revolt and can't simply be dismissed as tribal or regional and I have never been one to dismiss the uprising as sponsored by the West. However, we are fooling ourselves if we don't see the tribal and regional dyanimics that run through it. Tribal and regional divisions that are now being exploited both by Gaddafi and the west. In a nutshell Libya is a fiction. There really is two countries here and this regional division is what we are seeing unravel now.

and how does this justify your position of leaving them to it, and hoping that the people in the East can manage to protect themselves against far superior weaponry without any support?

 

[elbows]

I made a similar point earlier Penry, where is the footage of all the slaughtered Libyans?

I havent followed the tv media on this recently, but certainly there was a sky report from a city in the west under attack, and likely been a few things on Al Jazeera. Its true that there hasnt been a huge amount in the media recently to fully backup the rhetoric though.

You have to travel back to the first days of fighting, and have used mostly internet sources, to see the really grizzly stuff. And there was some, mostly from Benghazi, and some of the pictures of the dead were about as hideous to look at as it is possible to get. It was clear that at some point, some humans bodies had been exposed to some very heavy weaponry that was likely designed to attack aircraft. There were also videos from the same time that showed fairly short and confusing snippets of people being shot in the street.

Now there remain some very contentious issues about exactly what happened in Benghazi back then, and ever since then the questions about who counts as a civilian and who was an armed fighter makes the whole picture even harder to demonstrate in terms of dead civilian evidence. And since the rebels got armed and reckless, its been impossible to judge exactly who killed any of the numerous bodies I saw in the first weeks, including people with their hands tied behind their backs. Throw in the fact that Gaddafis grip on Tripoli, and the low credibility of some rebel propaganda, and we are left with no idea of the scale of the killed or imprisoned there, and that there is no useful information from towns and cities that fell back into Gaddafis clutches.

What does seem to have been fairly discredited is the idea that he used planes extensively to target unarmed people in Tripoli over a day or so, which the media and politicians went nuts about at at the time but then quietly pushed to one side once no evidence for it, or subsequent attacks, materialised.

But there has been loads of other stuff that we have rarely seen for ourselves during this event. The conflict became armed so early on that there is not, as best I remember, a lot of peaceful protest footage, if any, and the scenes of anti-gaddafi crowds that have been from places where Gaddafi had already lost his grip, and were more celebrations than peaceful protests. Oneor two protest marches that seemed to be from Tripoli made it onto the net, with unarmed protesters quickly running into gunfire.

But even more invisible from our screens have been Gaddafis forces themselves. Most of the videos where people have been shot at do not reveal much about who is shooting. I saw a disturbing video that appeared to show a column of tanks that had run across a road, crushing a car with occupants in the process. I saw some very dead pilots from a plane that was downed in circumstances I have no idea about. There was footage of armed people in cars riding around Tripoli. There have been some captured alive and filmed by rebels.

 

[Lock&Light]

Wild eyed and eccentric reporting is part of the story. And what happens on this thread makes not the slightest difference to fuck all.

I prefer to differentiate. But each to his own.

 

[Lock&Light]

well according to the BBC the bombing has already started.

Where have you been for the last few hours?

 

[binka]

fyi:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/19/libya-no-fly-zone-live-updates#block-16

11.15pm: Reuters interviews people in Benghazi and they respond with enthusiasm to today's air and missile strikes against the Gaddafi regime:

Iyad Ali, 37, unemployed: "We think this will end Gaddafi's rule. Libyans will never forget France's stand with them. If it weren't for them, then Benghazi would have been overrun tonight."

Khalid al-Ghurfaly, 38, civil servant: "We salute, France, Britain, the United States and the Arab countries for standing with Libya. But we think Gaddafi will take out his anger on civilians. So the West has to hit him hard."

Faraj Omar, 55, engineer: "We've all seen the news but we'll see what the results are later. To have any effect Gaddafi must be hit in Aziziyah, this is the head of the snake," he said referring to Gaddafi's heavily-fortified Tripoli compound.

i think this makes this action significantly different to afghanistan and iraq. before the invasion of iraq we were laughably informed by rumsfeld we would be greeted as liberators. i would say on this occassion bombing by the west is definitely popular with the rebels in the east of the country.

 

[likesfish]

be weird if you lived in a tyranny would you revolt or stand by the "dear leader" Soldiers are trained to obey orders but at what point do you go fuck this and change sides.
the tribal thing would complicate things but even so unless your a complete nutjob you'd know the COl was a wrong un

 

[elbows]

That is interesting. I was not aware of the tribal angles.

There were a few western towns and cities that Gaddafi had to supress before he turned his attention to the east so it seems possible that there is plenty of latent resistance in his own tribe. Do you think that is possible?

I think you may have oversimplified the number of tribes we are talking about. Gaddafi's tribe is only one of many in the west, there isnt just one tribe in the west that also happens to be his. I dont know the full tribal picture myself, just remember hearing about quite a lot of them earlier on in the conflict.

I dont think he got round to finishing off all the pockets of western resistance off before he started doing stuff in the east. There are some places still holding out, just about, by all accounts, not many now though.

Anyway the tribal stuff is certainly a factor, never been clear as an outsider quite how much. Rebels try to play this down, but at the same time during crucial stages where Gaddafi was losing support and rebels had the early momentum, stuff about tribes switching support away from Gaddafi were a very regular feature of twitter propaganda. Its impossible for me to judge which tribes actually switched away from Gaddafi, and which stories of this were actually false.

 

[lopsidedbunny]

Source was not taking time to upload pic, he was trying to get out of the compound so he could upload it.

 

[dylans]

and how does this justify your position of leaving them to it, and hoping that the people in the East can manage to protect themselves against far superior weaponry without any support?

I have never said "leave them to it" I oppose western intervention. it is not the same thing. I think Arab revolutionaries should be organising Arab international brigades and supply weapons and fighters. I also think the talk of Benghazi as poor victims without a hope of defending themselves is an outrageous slur on a very brave and determined people. They are armed to the teeth and even have fighter planes (at least they do if they stop shooting their own planes down) They are perfectly capable of defending Benghazi and a purely military victory over tripoli was never going to happen anyway. Better for them to follow a revolutionary path and while defending Benghazi encouraging rank and file defections within the military. It may well be the case that Tripoli is genuinely with Gaddafi, I don't know but it is certainly the case that Gaddafi enjoys significant support, as such it raises the question of the democratic right of Benghazi to force regime change on Tripoli. Maybe a division of the country into two would be best.

A lot of this sudden castration of the Libyan opposition from fighters to victims is intentional imo and has played to encourage Western intervention as has the denial of the regional and tribal dynamics of this struggle. Talk of the "libyan people" ( of which I am as guilty as anyone) just begs the question which Libyan people? Has anyone considered this. A Western sponsored regime change in which a Senoussi led regime is imposed on the country could very well lead to the settling of some Idris era scores as Benghazi and the East exact vengeance for 40 years of oppression not only on Gaddafi but on those tribes who supported him. We may well see the replacement of Gaddafi repression with the repression of another kind. It is for all these reasons that I oppose Western sponsored regime change. I support genuine self determination for Libya but this is not the way to achieve it

 

[lopsidedbunny]

No, the source is high up in the Libyan gov and risking his life right now, he took pics. Gaddafi is not dead

 

[twentythreedom]

I never used to watch AJE but recently it's been my primary reference for news (NHK for Japan also..)

RIP that guy who got killed, the Libyan free tv fella.

 

[goldenecitrone]

carolv27 Carol Viana

. @yasimodo No, the source is high up in the Libyan gov and risking his life right now, he took pics. Gaddafi is not dead @iyad_elbaghdadi

Did he choke on a pistachio?

 

[lopsidedbunny]

He is alive, tried to commit suicide

 

[twentythreedom]

"Odyssey Dawn" FFS who comes up with this shit??

 

[Anudder Oik]

"Odyssey Dawn" FFS who comes up with this shit??

It ¡s better than Quantum of Solace and the initials are OD. That may have some ironic relevance later on.

 

[albionism]

@ twentythreedom Computer game makers

 

[free spirit]

I also think the talk of Benghazi as poor victims without a hope of defending themselves is an outrageous slur on a very brave and determined people.

point of order - I've not portrayed the people of Benghazi as poor victims, nor would I. They have my utmost respect, and I'm sure they do have far greater military forces than the rebels in other areas that have been over run by gaddafi's forces, and would have fought hard and potentially stopped gaddafi from taking Benghazi by themselves, but the reality of the situation is that they'd have been hard pushed to do this if Gaddafi were able to bring the airforce in against them.

If they did get crushed, which does seem like a significant possibility, this once in a generation chance would have been lost, along with the lives of a lot of brave fighters and civilian protestors, and the world would have stood by and allowed it to happen when we could have intervened to assist them.

 

[Idaho]

The lack of footage and direct reportage of the scale of the forces fighting each other is a bit odd. The first time we get actual reports of troop numbers it turns out to be just a few hundred trying to get into Benghazi.

 

[binka]

sorry to paste from the guardian live blog again but:

12.12am: The rebel-held city of Misrata has been under siege by Gaddafi's forces for several days – and appears to have been one of the first beneficiaries of Western aerial attacks. Reuters reports:

Two residents said Gaddafi's forces appeared to have retreated from their positions, denying state TV reports that civilian areas and fuel depots were hit by the Western warplanes.

"The international forces struck Gaddafi battalions in the air military college, but some of the [government] forces fled shortly before the attack," resident Abdulbasset told Reuters by phone.

The base is 7 km from the city, which is Libya's third largest and is the last rebel hold-out in the west of the country. Another resident, Sami, said he had heard a loud explosion coming from the direction of the airbase.

"The Gaddafi forces surrounding the city started moving but we don't know where to," he said.

Earlier on Saturday, residents reported government shells and snipers had killed nine people in the city, about 200km (130 miles) east of Tripoli, and the hospital could not operate on the wounded because it had no anaesthetic.

They said the city faced a humanitarian crisis because water supplies were cut for a third day, but welcomed news of the first French air strikes to enforce a UN resolution.

"People are now optimistic and relieved. We are very grateful both to France and the EU for stepping in. Gaddafi's forces have carried out some barbaric acts here," said resident Mohammed.

sounds like things are pretty grim in misrata - no running water and no anaesthetic at the hospital

 

[dylans]

This raises another question. Despite the bullshit it is pretty clear that the goal is regime change. What happens when the rebels are shepherded into power? There is no doubt that Gaddafi enjoys considerable support including tribal support. Apart from widespread massacre of his followers, what happens if Gaddafi and his followers regroup reform and reconstitute themselves as an insurgency force. Or even if Gaddafi and his son's die, the Benghazi/Sanoussi led regime acts to oppress other tribal sectors, and create an insurgency. This is exactly what happened in Iraq.

In Iraq the US created an insurgency by leaving former Baathists with no option but to fight. A tribal led regime in Tripoli, resented and considered oppressive by some of the population could lead to exactly this situation and as in Iraq become a long lasting open wound in Libya. There are real regional and tribal divisions in Libya and all the simplistic talk of "the Libyan people" and self deluded claims that Gaddafi has no support doesn't change that.

Are all those so keen to cheer Western inspired regime change in Libya really prepared for the possibly awful consequences? Remember in Iraq, the defenders of the war argued that "nothing could be worse than Saddam." After a million deaths and the destruction of Iraqi society not many of them say that now

 

[elbows]

Oh bbc news 24 anchor, you have just said that the live images of people out in a street in Tripoli moments ago were perhaps people celebrating the international intervention. Err no, its a small bunch of pro-regime people, making a poor attempt at pretending to be spontaneously protesting, with some of them clearly chuckling at the absurdity of it. The clue is the green flags they are waving. Duh.