Let's talk about China

[skyscraper101]

I think they use their focus on the CCP as a mask for criticism of Chinese culture more broadly. At least that's what I felt when I watched more of their content (and was in fact in China). On the latter point, I don't think this actually gives them legitimacy... I mean some, certainly, but they always struck me as people who travelled in China rather than really just settled into it as a place to live.

That's not what I get at all. I don't understand why they'd just settle for over 10 years into a country they dislike and then travel around exploring its vast interior. They do on many occasions speak about how they love China and Chinese culture, and it was the whole opening up post-Olympics that galvanised their love of the place.

It was only once the Xi crackdown intensified it just became untenable to run a youtube channel about China with any objectivity from inside. In fact it became outright dangerous with more foreigners increasingly being hassled and blamed for things. That and all the tit for tat stuff going on e.g. the whole Meng Wanzhou detention etc.

 

[Cid]

That's not what I get at all. I don't understand why they'd just settle for over 10 years into a country they dislike and then travel around exploring its vast interior. They do on many occasions speak about how they love China and Chinese culture, and it was the whole opening up post-Olympics that spurred their love of the place.

It was only once the Xi crackdown intensified it just became untenable to run a youtube channel about China with any objectivity from inside. In fact it became outright dangerous with more foreigners increasingly being hassled and blamed for things. That and all the tit for tat stuff going on e.g. the whole Meng Wanzhou detention etc.

To be clear I formed my views on them based on pre-2018 content (because that's when I was there). Again, I haven't really engaged with them in ages, so it's a little hard to argue specifics without doing a deep dive, which would be daft. To strip the argument back to basics, I don't think it's a good idea to base your ideas of a place on the views of two people who have no real credentials beyond living there.

 

[JimW]

I think they use their focus on the CCP as a mask for criticism of Chinese culture more broadly. At least that's what I felt when I watched more of their content (and was in fact in China). On the latter point, I don't think this actually gives them legitimacy... I mean some, certainly, but they always struck me as people who travelled in China rather than really just settled into it as a place to live.

Any foreigner jocularly referring to themselves as a laowai or variants is usually a wrong'un ime.

 

[NoXion]

Umm... the mid-terms are very close. The Democrats are fucked. The US electorate is scared of China and love the idea of standing up to them. It's a fairly transparent ploy from Biden.

OK, but I don't think that's why the CCP is fussing about this like a colicky baby. They'd be spitting their dummies regardless of mid-terms shenanigans.

 

[Petcha]

OK, but I don't think that's why the CCP is fussing about this like a colicky baby. They'd be spitting their dummies regardless of mid-terms shenanigans.

Well, no. But it's clearly the reason Pelosi has gone down there. China getting mightily fucked off about and preparing to launch WW3 it is an unfortunate side-effect.

 

[JimW]

Regime's drawn a line in the sand, Pelosi's crossed it and now they have to be seen to respond or look ineffectual. Hope to Christ nothing fucks up and we get whoops apocalypse when my sense is they just want a particularly big rattle of the sabre.

 

[bluescreen]

Regime's drawn a line in the sand, Pelosi's crossed it and now they have to be seen to respond or look ineffectual. Hope to Christ nothing fucks up and we get whoops apocalypse when my sense is they just want a particularly big rattle of the sabre.

How long do you reckon they'll stay there, 'exercising', in an effective blockade? They don't have to fire a shot in anger unless someone fires at them first, but they are demonstrating that they can, by exercising with live fire. This is what it would look like for real, only it would last longer.

 

[JimW]

How long do you reckon they'll stay there, 'exercising', in an effective blockade? They don't have to fire a shot in anger unless someone fires at them first, but they are demonstrating that they can, by exercising with live fire. This is what it would look like for real, only it would last longer.

There was a date given iirc, matter of days, so God willing back to base face saved then. Hang on will check story.
ETA Says scheduled to end noon on 7th

 

[Cid]

I think Jenkins gets it right on this one... I'm... Uncomfortable... saying that people should avoid doing things simply because it might upset the authoritarians. But it does just seem like shit-stirring. And that is not a very good idea if you also want to preserve the strategic ambiguity of the Taiwan situation. Not an ideal situation, sure, but fuck me the world is in a fragile enough state already.

In Taiwan, as in Ukraine, the west is flirting with disaster | Simon Jenkins

It’s one thing to declare yourself ‘rather dead than red’, quite another to inflict that decision on the rest of us, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

 

[Rimbaud]

yeh. that's among your daftest posts yet because everyone - bar you, it seems - knows that there was no country india until well after the 1700s

There was no country called China then either, it was just the Qing Empire. It only called itself by its current name since 1912.

If you really want to be pedantic, there was never been a country called China because only foreigners have ever called it China. It was the [insert Dynasty name here] Empire, and then Middle Kingdom and various appellations.

 

[Pickman's model]

There was no country called China then either, it was just the Qing Empire. It only called itself by its current name since 1912.

If you really want to be pedantic, there was never been a country called China because only foreigners have ever called it China. It was the [insert Dynasty name here] Empire, and then Middle Kingdom and various appellations.

yeh. you're trying too hard to be clever and failing dismally because in the post you quote i say the country india. not the country called india. my point not being the name but that prior to its unification within british-ruled or -controlled borders there were several states, some large and others small within the subcontinent. with china you undermine your claim that there wasn't a country called china by pointing out that it was called china. albeit by foreigners.

 

[Rimbaud]

I think Jenkins gets it right on this one... I'm... Uncomfortable... saying that people should avoid doing things simply because it might upset the authoritarians. But it does just seem like shit-stirring. And that is not a very good idea if you also want to preserve the strategic ambiguity of the Taiwan situation. Not an ideal situation, sure, but fuck me the world is in a fragile enough state already.

In Taiwan, as in Ukraine, the west is flirting with disaster | Simon Jenkins

It’s one thing to declare yourself ‘rather dead than red’, quite another to inflict that decision on the rest of us, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

Jenkins is wrong - sending a message that Taiwan is alone makes China more, not less likely to invade. They are determined to annex Taiwan irrespective of what the US does or doesn't do, the question is whether they think they can get away with it. The more hawkish elements would argue that Chinese economic influence would mean that Taiwan would be alone - it isn't a good idea to let that idea take root within China's leadership.

Also, this is China changing the status quo, not the US. Newt Gingrich has previously visited Taiwan as the House Speaker before and China had no concern about it. Trying to cut Taiwan off from international diplomacy is an act of aggression which they are pursuing with increasing vigor, and giving in to these efforts speeds up the isolation of Taiwan and therefore the invasion timeline.

 

[Rimbaud]

yeh. you're trying too hard to be clever and failing dismally because in the post you quote i say the country india. not the country called india. my point not being the name but that prior to its unification within british-ruled or -controlled borders there were several states, some large and others small within the subcontinent. with china you undermine your claim that there wasn't a country called china by pointing out that it was called china. albeit by foreigners.

India was referred to as India by foreigners for just as long as they referred to China as China. And if the Ming (absent Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning which were Qing territories, as well as Inner Mongolia which was Northern Yuan, Tibet, as well as Xinjiang/Qinghai/Nigeria and Gansu which were Mosghulistan or Northern Yuan, and indeed Taiwan) can be a stand in for modern China, then so can the Delhi Sultanate or Mughal Empire be stand ins for modern India.

 

[Pickman's model]

India was referred to as India by foreigners for just as long as they referred to China as China. And if the Ming (absent Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning which were Qing territories, as well as Inner Mongolia which was Northern Yuan, Tibet, as well as Xinjiang/Qinghai/Nigeria and Gansu which were Mosghulistan or Northern Yuan, and indeed Taiwan) can be a stand in for modern China, then so can the Delhi Sultanate or Mughal Empire be stand ins for modern India.

thank you for a post which demonstrates how little you've understood of the point i was making about the country india. if you deign to look back you'll see it was in the context of historical populations. so having the populations of the delhi sultanate or mughal empire standing in for the population of india in the sense of the subcontinent is an interesting notion. but not one i think that would be that useful.

 

[Cid]

Jenkins is wrong - sending a message that Taiwan is alone makes China more, not less likely to invade. They are determined to annex Taiwan irrespective of what the US does or doesn't do, the question is whether they think they can get away with it. The more hawkish elements would argue that Chinese economic influence would mean that Taiwan would be alone - it isn't a good idea to let that idea take root within China's leadership.

Also, this is China changing the status quo, not the US. Newt Gingrich has previously visited Taiwan as the House Speaker before and China had no concern about it. Trying to cut Taiwan off from international diplomacy is an act of aggression which they are pursuing with increasing vigor, and giving in to these efforts speeds up the isolation of Taiwan and therefore the invasion timeline.

Does this make it clearer that the US will support Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion? Perhaps somewhat... But that might also be achieved by actually committing to that support, which afaik they are still avoiding. Doing all this publicly and fucking around with perceptions etc is also a poor substitute for attempting to reestablish a decent diplomatic mission in China.

 

[Rimbaud]

Does this make it clearer that the US will support Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion? Perhaps somewhat... But that might also be achieved by actually committing to that support, which afaik they are still avoiding. Doing all this publicly and fucking around with perceptions etc is also a poor substitute for attempting to reestablish a decent diplomatic mission in China.

I think Biden has stated that the US would defend Taiwan.

US would defend Taiwan if attacked by China, says Joe Biden

President says US’s responsibility to protect island is ‘even stronger’ after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

As has Japan:

Japan pledges to defend Taiwan if China attacks, says deputy prime minister Taro Aso

Japan has said it would join America in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, treating any such attack as an “existential threat” that could lead to

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Rimbaud]

thank you for a post which demonstrates how little you've understood of the point i was making about the country india. if you deign to look back you'll see it was in the context of historical populations. so having the populations of the delhi sultanate or mughal empire standing in for the population of india in the sense of the subcontinent is an interesting notion. but not one i think that would be that useful.

Are you sure that the population estimates given for previous Chinese dynasties refer only to the areas controlled by those dynasties, and not from defining multiple competing dynasties controlling seperate territory as Chinese dynasties and totalling up the sum?

The Population History of China wiki seems to provide a unitary figure of Chinese population for fractious periods like Warring States, Sixteen Kingdoms, Northern and Southern Dynasties etc. Which makes me wonder about other eras, e.g. does Northern Song population including the Khitans as China as they are often defined as a "Chinese Dynasty", or does Southern Song era include the Jin Dynasty population?

 

[Pickman's model]

Are the population estimates given for previous Chinese dynasties refer only to the areas controlled by those dynasties, and not to what is considered to be China by contemporary borders?

The Population History of China wiki seems to provide a unitary figure of Chinese population for fractious periods like Warring States, Sixteen Kingdoms, Northern and Southern Dynasties etc. Which makes me wonder if other eras, e.g. does Northern Song population including the Khitans as China as they are often defined as a "Chinese Dynasty", or does Southern Song era include the Jin Dynasty population?

i don't know. my point was that given the number of polities in the subcontintent of india until quite recently any population stats for there wouldn't be reliable. i thought the issue might be different within china / qing empire

 

[NoXion]

I think Jenkins gets it right on this one... I'm... Uncomfortable... saying that people should avoid doing things simply because it might upset the authoritarians. But it does just seem like shit-stirring. And that is not a very good idea if you also want to preserve the strategic ambiguity of the Taiwan situation. Not an ideal situation, sure, but fuck me the world is in a fragile enough state already.

In Taiwan, as in Ukraine, the west is flirting with disaster | Simon Jenkins

It’s one thing to declare yourself ‘rather dead than red’, quite another to inflict that decision on the rest of us, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

I see that like Ukraine, Taiwan likewise has no agency of its own in that article. Presumably like with other sovereignties, this visit was arranged with the consent of the government in question.

 

[likesfish]

Jenkins never met an aggressor he didn't want to lie down to.
Writes this same sort of shit annually over fraggle rock.
Forgetting canada has a French colony 12 miles off its coast.
If people don't want to be ruled by you leave them the fuck alone.

 

[JimW]

One bit of open commentary I saw doing the rounds here was a prof pointing out that the sanctions on China if they do invade will be as harsh as those on Russia and would fuck them completely as so much key tech is still imported - chips etc, airplane parts. How true exactly I don't know, either in terms of the willingness to impose or the impact but hopefully the Ukraine war consequences are giving pause and interesting that people are saying so publicly.

 

[Cid]

I see that like Ukraine, Taiwan likewise has no agency of its own in that article. Presumably like with other sovereignties, this visit was arranged with the consent of the government in question.

Presumably, though there certainly wasn't uniform support for the visit within Taiwan. Mind you, there are still CCP supporters there so, y'know.

 

[tim]

I'll check out those podcasts thanks. Though I'd argue that while Matt/Winston do highlight the negatives in China, they are always keen to emphasize that it's squarely aimed at the evils of the CCP and not the country which they clearly both love. Their years of living and travelling and documenting in China and marrying Chinese women gives them a fair bit of legitimacy there IMO.

Irritating pricks much of the time.

 

[Rimbaud]

One bit of open commentary I saw doing the rounds here was a prof pointing out that the sanctions on China if they do invade will be as harsh as those on Russia and would fuck them completely as so much key tech is still imported - chips etc, airplane parts. How true exactly I don't know, either in terms of the willingness to impose or the impact but hopefully the Ukraine war consequences are giving pause and interesting that people are saying so publicly.

I think China is significantly more vulnerable to sanctions than Russia, which is largely self sufficient in food, energy and raw materials. China depends on imports of essentials and also remains an export orientated economy.

Because of this I don't really think they will invade Taiwan - they might have hoped that interdependency of their economy with other countries would mean that sanctions would be limited in scope, but seeing Europe's willingness to harm itself economically in the short-term by easing off Russian gas has probably given them pause for thought, as well as Ukraine's unexpectedly powerful resistance.

 

[Yossarian]

Good piece here on how the New York Mets bungled their "Evening of Chinese Culture" by coordinating with a dodgy group with close ties to the CCP and even handing out hats with the fucking PRC flag on them.

Symbols matter, and there is irony in using this one to celebrate Chinese culture. If anything, the PRC flag has, for decades, represented the systematic destruction of Chinese culture...

In an ideal world, the Mets would cancel Saturday’s event, sever ties with the Sino-American Friendship Association and ensure that any future “Evenings of Chinese Culture” actually celebrate Chinese culture and the Chinese people — not a regime hostile to both.

In the meantime, fans who don’t want to serve as billboards for a genocidal totalitarian state have an easy remedy. They can toss the commemorative hats where they belong, right alongside the Chinese Communist Party — on the trash heap of bad ideas.‘

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/04/mets-china-baseball/

 

[gosub]

 

[gosub]

 

[agricola]

Jenkins is wrong - sending a message that Taiwan is alone makes China more, not less likely to invade. They are determined to annex Taiwan irrespective of what the US does or doesn't do, the question is whether they think they can get away with it. The more hawkish elements would argue that Chinese economic influence would mean that Taiwan would be alone - it isn't a good idea to let that idea take root within China's leadership.

Also, this is China changing the status quo, not the US. Newt Gingrich has previously visited Taiwan as the House Speaker before and China had no concern about it. Trying to cut Taiwan off from international diplomacy is an act of aggression which they are pursuing with increasing vigor, and giving in to these efforts speeds up the isolation of Taiwan and therefore the invasion timeline.

er- when Gingrich visited they jumped up and down loads about it, but now they've expanded the ability of the military they can put on more of a show.

As for Jenkins, I think he does have a point - the Pelosi visit certainly has the appearance of posturing rather than doing anything actually concrete to either improve the situation or to actually support Taiwan. It is precisely those sort of antics, of doingsomethingitis without any understanding or even acknowledgement of the long term effect that has led to so many foreign policy disasters of our times.

 

[Cid]

Maybe don't link to a 15 minute Fox video without some kind of summary?

e2a: Or, indeed, China Uncensored, which is Epoch Times/Falun Gong affiliated.

 

[Rimbaud]

er- when Gingrich visited they jumped up and down loads about it, but now they've expanded the ability of the military they can put on more of a show.

As for Jenkins, I think he does have a point - the Pelosi visit certainly has the appearance of posturing rather than doing anything actually concrete to either improve the situation or to actually support Taiwan. It is precisely those sort of antics, of doingsomethingitis without any understanding or even acknowledgement of the long term effect that has led to so many foreign policy disasters of our times.

From what I've read, it doesn't seem like they made much of a big deal about it at the time.

Chinese rhetoric on Pelosi, Gingrich visits markedly different - Focus Taiwan

Taipei, Aug. 2 (CNA) China's rhetoric ahead of a reportedly imminent visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan Tuesday has differed dramatically from the language used when her predecessor Newt Gingrich visited the nation in 1997.

focustaiwan.tw

A lot of the difference also seems to come down to the CCP's hostility to Pelosi in particular, and also painting themselves into a corner due to their pseudo-official Wolf Warriors like Hu Xijin hyping people up over shooting down Pelosi's plane.

And you are right of course that they are more capable of putting on a show of strength now - and they are also more capable of pressuring other countries economically to make them switch recognition from Taiwan, and to pressure international airlines and hotel chains to cease recognising Taiwanese as a nationality or Taiwanese passports (e.g. my wife has a Taiwanese passport but she has to input it as a PRC passport at Air France - an effort to slowly eliminate Taiwan from public consciousness and global representation) The end goal is to make Taiwan economically and politically isolated, with a demoralised public, facing Chinese military superiority so overwhelming that an invasion would be a fait accompli.

Allowing Beijing to determine who can and can't visit Taiwan is therefore one step closer towards a war and the "re-education" of Taiwan. Pushing back against the efforts to slowly but surely expand the red lines around Taiwan makes is a step away from it. Next time an official visits Taiwan, China may agitate against it behind the scenes but they won't paint themselves into a corner by threatening to shoot down a plane of foreign diplomats again.