China is going to invade Taiwan in 2027
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I hope you haven't forgotten this post
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Still standing by it!
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I think the stars are becoming right for an attempt, no matter what your friend and her retired dad think. The circumstances in which American naval assets,intelligence attention and weapons supply are diverted from the western Pacific may not swiftly recur and the golden hour in which China can realistically assault Taiwan will end fairly soon - by 2030 or 2035, no matter the greater military strength of China other factors will limit their freedom for manouevre. By 2030 or 2035 the United States forces will have much greater reserves of ammunition and missiles than they do now. The wars in the middle east and Ukraine will likely be over and American attention likely more focused on the Pacific. Are there any areas in which your source and her pa have got military prognostications right, on perhaps fighting between India and China?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You've lived in britain and claim to have served in the armed forces yet your grasp on situations here leaves something to be desired
My father-in-law (Taiwanese) also reckons it will never happen, but I'm not convinced of his logic at all. He says Chinese people (he was also including Taiwanese) are not capable of war as they are self-interested and not willing to self sacrifice, pointing out that a lot of the Chinese government stash their wealth and families overseas, suggesting that they would be easily enticed by bribery.
The Long March and human wave attacks during the Korean War tell me differently. I worry that the arguments against it ever happening seem to rely a lot on apparently naive essentialism which looks like wishful thinking to me.
The Long March and human wave attacks during the Korean War tell me differently. I worry that the arguments against it ever happening seem to rely a lot on apparently naive essentialism which looks like wishful thinking to me.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Yes; daughter’s boyfriend and her dad (both who did their national service in the army) and are active in politics there doubt the Chinese will try a direct assault- although they don’t dismiss it completely- there view is China will/ is pursuing its aims by covert and overt political and economic means.
Given daughter’s boyfriend’s wartime role would be to sit at the top of a beach with an assault rifle with the objective of ‘delaying the PLA for about 15 minutes to give the Apaches a chance of getting there’ * this might be wishful thinking…
(And of course the global importance of TSMC to the global economy including, checks notes, China. is only one prong of their defence. The Taiwanese also have more conventional missiles capable of hitting the parts of china that make most of the money than you could shake a stick at.)
(* Don’t worry though he had three whole days on the range and fired almost 200 rounds in training cos Covid …)
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_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
And you're a dickhead endlessly playing arent I clever on the internet, quick heads up...nobody fucking cares
Yossarian
⏭️
Though the same policy has led to many sex-selective abortions and millions of "surplus" men
Peter Norf
ropes!
40-odd million bachelors (with apparently no chance of finding female companionship) there were a decade or so ago
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
We shouldn't forget that China has the largest standing army in the world, at about 2 million right now. Taiwan's total population is only about 23 million.
Peter Norf
ropes!
And after them the 70 million bureaucrats
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Once again you avoid discussing the issues and dissecting the argument I put forward in post 94. Go on, show me how wrong I am. You're but a great inflated bladder able to post tawdry insults and nothing more
Erm, no they are not ready in any shape or form ready to invade Taiwan. They have 36 LST and 8 LSDs.
Taiwan is one of the most defensible islands in the world, both physically and militarily. All of those vessels would be at the bottom of the sea if required.
Taiwan does not need to win militarily and is not looking towards ruling mainland China (politicians comments ignored because - politicians...), they just need to endure and out-perform economically.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Could you explain abbreviations not previously used on the thread?
E2A I doubt the Chinese would open hostilities with an amphibious invasion, that's more likely to occur after a period of open warfare to reduce Taiwanese defences
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
And if I was in the pla I'd be thinking of an assault on spruce pine, north Carolina, in advance of any declaration of war https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/tech/semiconductor-supply-chain-north-carolina-helene/index.html as disrupting the quartz production there would have knock-on effects on future American production of weapons. Such an assault could be done by either suborned Americans or a team inserted into the US. I wonder how many of the Chinese travelling to the US via the Darien gap are ccp agents
Landing Ship Tank - can basically run up to the beach, open the bow doors, drop a ramp and let the vehicles out.
Landing Ship Docks - larger vessels with 'wet wells' to drop off smaller vessels, Landing ships, hovercraft, ribs, etc.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Thank you
Skinny Ethel
Well-Known Member
As a fairly new member here Pickman would it be wrong to describe you as a condescending cunt?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
It'd certainly be an admission of a limited vocabulary. It's an urban commonplace that we're all cunts so I don't think it'd have the impact you hope for.
WTF? PM was an established member when I joined many, many moons ago. our views may not align, but are respected.
ETA: Damn! It's almost 20 years since I joined! Happy days of whack-a-moling the 9-11 and Climate conspiraloons!
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