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China is going to invade Taiwan in 2027

100% not going to happen, I have a good friend whose Dad is a retired PLA medic and she assures me no chance. They don't need the cost, the hassle and reunification will come with time and a subsequent desire for a better standard of living.

Well, if your friend's dad who once was a medic in the PLA says there's no chance then that's us and the world fully convinced. Low ranking medics often have access to high level geo-political and military strategy, especially retired ones.

Please tell me you don't really think that's a legitimate reason for thinking it won't happen?
 
Well, if your friend's dad who once was a medic in the PLA says there's no chance then that's us and the world fully convinced. Low ranking medics often have access to high level geo-political and military strategy, especially retired ones.

Please tell me you don't really think that's a legitimate reason for thinking it won't happen?
It's China, waste not, want not. Granted he spent a lot of time in the far north so probably got frostbite of the brain.
 
100% not going to happen, I have a good friend whose Dad is a retired PLA medic and she assures me no chance. They don't need the cost, the hassle and reunification will come with time and a subsequent desire for a better standard of living.

But reunification won't come with time, Taiwan and China are diverging and the legacy and influence of the Guomindang in Taiwan is fading. The younger generation identify more strongly as Taiwanese so incorporating Taiwan into China will become harder as time goes on. The situation is very different to how it was 10+ years ago when Ma Yingjeou was in power and a liberalising China and Taiwan appeared to be converging; there is now a third consecutive term of a DPP president and KMT are struggling to remain relevant and trying to distance themselves from China. Meanwhile Xi's increasingly authoritarian and conservative China is increasingly unattractive to more liberal Taiwanese youth, especially after HK.

Secondly, Xi Jinping has been known to prioritise political power over the economy, and ultimately if he wants to invade Taiwan for vainglorious reasons it will happen even if many in the PLA are hesitant and if it appears economically irrational.

I don't think anyone can say with any certainty that it will or won't happen.
 
As with Russia and Ukraine. It’s a bit like the old joke about the Sun in the wind having a bet who can make a man take his coat off.
The chance of peaceful reunification disappeared once China started getting heavy handed in Hong Kong. The Taiwanese have now seen what their prospective masters are like and thought ‘fuck that’.
 
The American political sphere thinks there would certainly be sanctions were China to invade Taiwan. The US has (or at least they did under Trump) been advising their companies to reduce their dependence on Chinese manufacturing. One US company I know is actively onshoring to Europe where possible. I don't know what Apple is doing but I believe they are also moving dependence out of China.
 
Just experienced this. Was pretty scary, we were on the 8th floor and the entire building was rocking back and forth. Had to evacuate down the stairwell carrying my terrified 8 month old son in a sling with aftershocks and being uncertain how strong they would be.

We are safe though, and little visible damage where we are. That said while writing this I literally just got interrupted by the biggest aftershock since the main event so seems it isn't over yet.
 
Just experienced this. Was pretty scary, we were on the 8th floor and the entire building was rocking back and forth. Had to evacuate down the stairwell carrying my terrified 8 month old son in a sling with aftershocks and being uncertain how strong they would be.

We are safe though, and little visible damage where we are. That said while writing this I literally just got interrupted by the biggest aftershock since the main event so seems it isn't over yet.
Stay safe! Are you on holiday there?
 
Cheers, yeah visiting in-laws here for 3 weeks. My wife says there may be more earthquakes over the next few days so will have to be careful.
Beautiful country, hope you're over the worst of it. Never get entirely used to them, even after all this time. (Quakes, not in-laws)
 
There's actually a dedicated thread for this

 
Have China perfected the technology featured in the Hollywood blockbuster The Core?
 
100% not going to happen, I have a good friend whose Dad is a retired PLA medic and she assures me no chance. They don't need the cost, the hassle and reunification will come with time and a subsequent desire for a better standard of living.

Gonna come back to this again as I'm in Taiwan now.

The idea that "desire for a better standard of living" will cause Taiwan to join China is deeply flawed. First, GDP per capita in Taiwan is 35,000 USD, whereas in China it is 12,000 USD, so it isn't clear how joining China would lead to a better standard of living.

Secondly, even if it would, that wouldn't mean Taiwan would return. Your friend is thinking in the quite typical (and flawed) Chinese mentality that money and economic development determines everything. UK was richer than Ireland for most of its independence but that didn't mean Ireland wanted to join UK, there are many such examples... for example, Japanese Manchuria and Japanese Taiwan were more economically advanced than independent China, but that doesn't mean that the rest of China wanted to be ruled by Japan.

There are also many benefits to living in Taiwan over China that are wholly unrelated to economics - chiefly unrestricted access to open Internet but also a more tolerant and pluralist society overall, and greater respect for sexual and ethnic/cultural minorities etc.

Also, another reason it won't come with time is the differing paths China and Taiwan are taking. Taiwan has taken steps to promote and protect minority languages and cultures while China is taking an aggressive approach to Sinicisation. Taiwan encourages immigration to counter low birth rates while China is increasingly xenophobic and barriers and conditions for foreigners have gotten worse over the last decade rather than better; despite the much smaller population Taiwan has a foreign population likely larger than all of China excluding Hong Kong, predominantly from Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. These account for 3.5% of Taiwan's population and over the next couple decades will likely increase significantly, causing further cultural divergence from China.

Also, the DPP are pursuing an economic strategy of promoting economic ties with India and SE Asia to reduce dependency on trade with China. As India and SE Asia develop relative to China, China's economic influence over Taiwan will decline as cultures diverge.

Also, China's intranet means it is diverging culturally from the rest of the world, which is converging due to a shared online space. This lies at the root of diverging cultural attitudes and worldviews between Taiwan and China.

And lastly, it is almost 120 years since Taiwan was unified with China, and 75 years since the arrival of large numbers of Guomindang from the mainland. Divergence in identity is only natural as time from these two events grows longer.

So you can see that time is definitely not on the side of reunification.
 
Isn’t the main deterrence to joining with China the example of what happened to Hong Kong after reunification? Like there’s a clear example of how state repression would be imposed. I can see why a majority of Taiwanese would go ‘fuck that shit’.
 
Im all for standing with Taiwan, they make the best Bicycles in the world (usually rebadged by western companies) and Bicycles are of course mankinds greatest invention.
China make shit Bicycles
 
Sure Xi Jinping would be really foolish not to get the pla ready to go now things are kicking off properly in the middle east, with resultant impacts on the supply of American weapons
 
Sure Xi Jinping would be really foolish not to get the pla ready to go now things are kicking off properly in the middle east, with resultant impacts on the supply of American weapons
And new PM of Japan is apparently hopeful to push for better relationships in the region and not necessarily through US "guidance"...
 
The Chinese have really pushed their nationalism so it's doubtful that there's any real mileage in that
At the stage, am weary and wary when I hear spokespeople (in both areas) calling for better relations between the countries. Mean, it's a nice idea and all that but China's actions in the region don't seem to support these calls.
 
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