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China is going to invade Taiwan in 2027

I'm flying out there for 3 weeks this Saturday so hopefully nothing happens anytime soon.

It's a serious possibility though. If it happens it'll probably happen in the latter half of the 2020s. Beijing is very risk averse though so I'm hoping they put it off until the window of opportunity slips away (by 2030s China's relative economic and military strength in the region will have decreased somewhat as the economic centre of gravity shifts to SE Asia and India).

What I worry about is the possibility of serious civil unrest in the US after the next election being perceived by Beijing as the time to seize the moment.
 
AnnO'Neemus said:
Must admit, since I left Beijing and moved back to the UK, I haven't really kept up to date with China-Taiwan tensions or HK-mainland shenanigans or kept up in any great detail with wider Asia-Pacific region politics.

With that caveat in mind, I reckon not just the Russian invasion of Ukraine but more importantly the more recent (non-)reaction to Israel's attacks on Gaza, with the global superpowers basically turning a blind eye to genocide, war crimes and a possible huge land grab, will have had the effect of emboldening the Chinese authorities in terms of any plans they might have to physically annexe Taiwan.

Lesson learned from Russia v Ukraine is that while US and other Western allies might provide financial/military aid, and they might provide advisors, they're not going to wade in and commit any ground troops, and any air or sea support will be on the periphery.

So in the event China invades Taiwan... so what? What are the US, UN, UK, etc going to do? Again, while they might provide financial and military aid and advisors, they're not going to commit any ground troops, they're not going to risk destabilising the region any further, bearing in mind US military presence in South Korea.

North Korea (allied with PRC) and the Korean peninsula is a can of worms that they won't want to open.

So there will be lots of condemnation of China, but in practical terms? What? Sanctions? They will kill the US automotive industry stone dead. Ditto lots of parts of the tech sector for which China and/or Taiwan are the major sources of components.

Think back to how much chaos was caused when the Suez Canal was temporarily blocked by that container ship. Or delayed deliveries when shipping had to be rerouted round the Horn of Africa due to an upsurge in incidents of piracy.

Given how many industries rely on 'just in time' supply chains, any sanctions or other disruptions due to military activity will have a disastrous knock-on effect on the global economy.

Ultimately, the global superpowers won't care very much about Taiwan or its people, they will care about the impact on their own economies and their own companies and population.
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Western disengagement from China been going on for over a year now.. China might still kill Western car manufacturers...domestic demand plummeted US and EU starting action to stop perceived dumping
 
minorcelebrity said:
China are nearly ready.
Just wanted to alert Urban to this massive impending problem.
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100% not going to happen, I have a good friend whose Dad is a retired PLA medic and she assures me no chance. They don't need the cost, the hassle and reunification will come with time and a subsequent desire for a better standard of living.
 
A380 said:
Seems legit.

Oh mighty oracle minorcelebrity how are the PLA going to overcome their deficit in sufficient sea lift capacity?, Is that next year? When does their counter conventional missile system come sufficiently on line to prevent a huge chunk of their Eastern seaboard (the bit where all the money is) getting flattered and how have they solved the problem of securing TSMC as a going concern to prevent the huge damage to their own manufacturing base if it was gone?
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Indeed and this is why it ain't going to happen.
 
ID47 said:
100% not going to happen, I have a good friend whose Dad is a retired PLA medic and she assures me no chance. They don't need the cost, the hassle and reunification will come with time and a subsequent desire for a better standard of living.
Click to expand...
But what does China Daily newspaper say? That's usually pretty reliable as a propaganda organ.
 
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