Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Vintage Paw]

They have someone ready to go. Why does anyone think they'd have all their cards out by this point?

Absolutely.

And you can bet your arse that Tom Watson is standing quietly in the sidelines waiting for either JC or whoever replaces him to lose the GE so he can step up and provide a third way - untarnished from the infighting from before.

 

[eoin_k]

...

 

[killer b]

There's still the question of the Tories redrawing the boundaries. Work has already been done to decide what constituencies are going and which are staying. Obviously the Tories being in total disarray might push that project back, but I can't imagine it won't still go ahead. If it does, then I fully expect my Stoke Central constituency to go and be absorbed by either Stoke North or Stoke South. That will have to mean a by-election, even if the North/South MP plans to continue on and Trissy doesn't plan on standing, because those in Central didn't vote for them.

I think they're working on the premise of a snap election in May (this is why they've gone now instead of waiting). They won't have the boundaries redrawn by then, and as the CLPs haven't gone through the reselection procedure, sitting MPs will be automatically reselected. Revenge will have to wait 5 years, in which time they're banking on most of the people who're set on revenge to leave the party in disgust...

 

[DotCommunist]

military action man dan or bright eyes. Surely Burnham looks weak for having lost badly last time. Not liz kendall badly but still nothing to crow about

 

[Vintage Paw]

I dunno. I think it's probably Burnham, but I've bad form for reading these things.

I thought it was too. His statement yesterday made me definitely think it was. However, he's got his eye firmly on being mayor of Manchester and wants to step back, so that's at odds with a really messy and acrimonious leadership contest.

 

[killer b]

Wot, Andy "N-n-n-n-nineteen %" Burnham?

He's definitely maneuvering. Possibly independently, but hard to say atm.

 

[brogdale]

Hope the quisling former Shad Camers are enjoying the vermin laughing at Corbyn...at this time.

 

[Vintage Paw]

I think they're working on the premise of a snap election in May (this is why they've gone now instead of waiting). They won't have the boundaries redrawn by then, and as the CLPs haven't gone through the reselection procedure, sitting MPs will be automatically reselected. Revenge will have to wait 5 years, in which time they're banking on most of the people who're set on revenge to leave the party in disgust...

Unless this mandatory annual reselection thing that's being floated today actually comes to pass. Which, frankly, would be very good.

 

[Sprocket.]

Who? If its Burnham I swear to god I'll do time.

I admire your resolve but he is not worth it.

 

[agricola]

Corbyn taking them on from the front bench.

 

[killer b]

Unless this mandatory annual reselection thing that's being floated today actually comes to pass. Which, frankly, would be very good.

how would annual reselection work? If there's an election next May, whoever wins those seats are in for 5 years regardless.

 

[Vintage Paw]

military action man dan or bright eyes. Surely Burnham looks weak for having lost badly last time. Not liz kendall badly but still nothing to crow about

I can see Dan Jarvis stepping up. For some inexplicable reason there are loads of people who bleat on about 'Dan will save us', completely ignoring the fact that he isn't a socialist and he's a fucking militarist.

I see a lot about Kier Starmer too.

 

[quimcunx]

I don't know. That's one of the biggest problems they face. Membership will crumple if Corbyn goes (I could see it staying if McDonnell were to replace him, but I don't think there are too many others who would have the principles many of the new membership want).

Alternatively there are 200k labour members who joined because of Corbyn. Maybe they'd be happy to take their £3 and give it to the Corbynista party should Labour be irrevocably split.

 

[Wilf]

this is it. The PLP has decided it owns the party, always did think that. The tail wagging the dog effect in full swing. And to do this now when you have a great opportunity to stab the true enemy frenziedly while he is down while shouting 'sic semper tyrannis!' ? they don't deserve ayones vote

Absolutely, agree 100% Trouble is, it's done now. The blairites are going for it and can't/won't stop. The processes, time and effort involved in beating them, which will certainly include deselection (if there's even time) mean the party's fucked. Labour isn't even in the lead in the polls (polls, lol) now.

 

[Vintage Paw]

how would annual reselection work? If there's an election next May, whoever wins those seats are in for 5 years regardless.

Presumably it'd mean by-elections every year. By-elections can be called whenever they need to be called, and aren't tied to a GE.

 

[Rob Ray]

I thought it was too. His statement yesterday made me definitely think it was. However, he's got his eye firmly on being mayor of Manchester and wants to step back, so that's at odds with a really messy and acrimonious leadership contest.

It'll most likely be Jarvis or Watson. Burnham's barely top ten on the betting lists, and with good reason, he's a perennial loser who's already bolloxed a "coronation" leadership election.

 

[happie chappie]

Presumably it'd mean by-elections every year. By-elections can be called whenever they need to be called, and aren't tied to a GE.

It doesn't as a deselected MP could sit as an independent.

 

[killer b]

Presumably it'd mean by-elections every year. By-elections can be called whenever they need to be called, and aren't tied to a GE.

Not going to happen.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Alternatively there are 200k labour members who joined because of Corbyn. Maybe they'd be happy to take their £3 and give it to the Corbynista party should Labour be irrevocably split.

If Corbyn goes, he'll go back to the backbenches. I don't think his support is strong enough within the PLP for anyone to break away, and I don't think Corbyn would encourage it. He's stuck with Labour for the past 33 years, after all. If there's going to be a breaking up of the party, it'll be if Corbyn is re-elected, and it'll be Blairite/Brownite/"moderates" who go.

If Corbyn loses, particularly to someone who isn't vaguely left-ish or left-ish-sounding, I reckon we'll see a couple of Unions disaffiliating again.

 

[Sprocket.]

For however many years the Westminster politicians have kept wringing their hands over voter apathy, saying what is wrong with the voters? when they all, particularly Labour should have been asking what is wrong with us?
Well they got their answer last Thursday and now it is everyone else's fault, especially Corbyn's in their blinded view. Are there no mirrors in Westminster?

 

[killer b]

Also, that's not how it works. The MP is elected, not the party. The party can't force a by-election.

 

[agricola]

I can see Dan Jarvis stepping up. For some inexplicable reason there are loads of people who bleat on about 'Dan will save us', completely ignoring the fact that he isn't a socialist and he's a fucking militarist.

I see a lot about Kier Starmer too.

They have boosted Jarvis before, it went away when everyone heard him speak. Starmer perhaps, but he isn't really someone who is going to heal the divide or even someone who the electorate are going to jump for.

 

[Vintage Paw]

It'll most likely be Jarvis or Watson. Burnham's barely top ten on the betting lists, and with good reason, he's a perennial loser who's already bolloxed a "coronation" leadership election.

I'm reasonably certain Watson is going to bide his time. He's a very, very clever man. I can't stand him.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Seriously, if they stand Margaret Hodge, what the actual fuck are they thinking?

 

[Vintage Paw]

If they could get Ruth Davidson to switch sides and come south of the border they'd sweep the deck. Everyone loves Ruth. She's the not-batty-Boris of Scottish politics.

 

[DotCommunist]

Presumably it'd mean by-elections every year.

a chartist demand that never got through

 

[Orang Utan]

Seriously, if they stand Margaret Hodge, what the actual fuck are they thinking?

That can't happen, surely? She should be be in fucking jail. Mind you, so should Blair.

 

[Rob Ray]

Also, that's not how it works. The MP is elected, not the party. The party can't force a by-election.

Doubtless it's one reason why they launched now - they've been bricking it about activists forcing deselections and adding to Corbyn's leftie fan base in the PLP, a snap general election is one of the only opportunities for that to happen.

 

[Vintage Paw]

That can't happen, surely? She should be be in fucking jail. Mind you, so should Blair.

I'm pretty sure when everyone was talking about another would-be coup (there have been so many) a while back Hodge's name came up as someone who would be the stooge to stand, and that she'd be willing to sacrifice herself for the greater good or something. So she's been in the frame for a while. Not because they want her to run, but because they just want Corbyn out and she'd be some kind of bridge... idk. I really don't think they use their thinking brains for all of this.

 

[Orang Utan]

Is a Labour split really that unlikely? Corbyn seems to be despised by a lot of Labour folk. An acquaintance of mine worked for Labour until the general election and has held a massive grudge against Corbyn since he was elected. He worked for him for six months and thinks he's a clown. He's a bit of a Red Tory though and thinks socialism is an anachronism within the Labour Party.