Is Corbyn capable of winning a general election?

[Raheem]

The narrative pushed by UKIP and the outers was partly that they were in some way agin the "establishment". It's becoming clear that the political class, the cuntocracy, call them what you will, are daggers drawn against Jezza.
A lot of young, poor, old Labour, soon to be disillusioned kippers and so on are getting wise to the PLP/BBC/ Oxbridge PPE onslaught. Social media is a fairly new factor in UK politics and the plotters don't seem to have a clue.If they lose the PLP backstabbers and their allies will need to be put back in their box, and quick. I think we've heard enough of their whining.
If Corbyn holds his nerve and if the Party unite behind and get a grip then I think yes, there's a chance.

There's nothing illogical about this, but I only wish I could believe it. I think it is a vain hope that people will generally see past what they are presented with by the media. I think social media does make a difference, but if virtually all traditional media is against you, then it's not going to be possible to win a general election. It's not really a question of Corbyn is capable, more about whether he's ever going to be allowed.

 

[brogdale]

meh. inconsistent and odd: i can live with that.

agin?

And clearly happy to live with supporting someone you're too embarrassed to reveal anonymously.

 

[Obediah Marsh]

or more realistically, Labour need to get on board with the concept of probably needing to be in coalition or a confidence and supply minority govenment deal with the SNP and possibly others.

They could then focus their efforts on winning seats elsewhere rather than attempting to win back seats that would already be supporting a labour government if the electoral maths stacked up that way.

Labour and the SNP compete for the same votes, have conflicting objectives, and any coalition between the two would be characterized by bad faith, ill-will and backstabbing (see 1979)

One of Corbyn's strengths is the popularity of his views with Scottish voters. If the rebels get their way and succeed in replacing him by someone who appeals to middle class metropolitan lefties, the loudest cheers will be in Edinburgh not London.

 

[marty21]

It would probably take a coalition with the SNP to put Corbyn into number 10 ,not sure if he would go for that.

 

[Sue]

Labour and the SNP compete for the same votes, have conflicting objectives, and any coalition between the two would be characterized by bad faith, ill-will and backstabbing (see 1979)

One of Corbyn's strengths is the popularity of his views with Scottish voters. If the rebels get their way and succeed in replacing him by someone who appeals to middle class metropolitan lefties, the loudest cheers will be in Edinburgh not London.

How exactly is this popularity being shown..? Can't say I've really seen this, especially after the ferry/rail contracts gaffes.

 

[Sue]

It would probably take a coalition with the SNP to put Corbyn into number 10 ,not sure if he would go for that.

Not sure the SNP would go for that either.

 

[Smoking kills]

There's nothing illogical about this, but I only wish I could believe it. I think it is a vain hope that people will generally see past what they are presented with by the media. I think social media does make a difference, but if virtually all traditional media is against you, then it's not going to be possible to win a general election. It's not really a question of Corbyn is capable, more about whether he's ever going to be allowed.

It would help if Corbyns allies stopped throwing Mao's red book around, walking into clearly marked minefields without a map, and started engaging with more people through public meetings and a press or propaganda department that isn't in constant retreat.
There's a meeting in my town at the end of the month. I might go. As for the press bit, yes, it's a major obstacle, but who knows how the voters will feel about the MSM after another few years of austerity and blatant lies and bias.
Maybe I'm just an optimist

 

[free spirit]

Not sure the SNP would go for that either.

they'd go for either coalition or confidence and supply arrangements if it meant keeping the tories out of power / the alternative being tacit support for a minority tory government.

 

[free spirit]

Labour and the SNP compete for the same votes, have conflicting objectives, and any coalition between the two would be characterized by bad faith, ill-will and backstabbing (see 1979)

One of Corbyn's strengths is the popularity of his views with Scottish voters. If the rebels get their way and succeed in replacing him by someone who appeals to middle class metropolitan lefties, the loudest cheers will be in Edinburgh not London.

labour are on 22% in the latest ipso mori poll in scotland, SNP are on 48% (albeit low numbers polled). Sturgeon is on +53% net popularity in Scotland, so is pretty unassailable at the moment.

The SNP have already cornered the anti-austerity votes up there, I doubt Labour are going to come back from this in Scotland until the SNP seriously fuck up. Labour's energies are best focussed on winning as many seats as possible in England and Wales, and ensuring that the tories can't scare people about the prospect of a labour SNP alliance in power if it came to it.

realism rather than tribalism is the order of the day her IMO.

 

[xenon]

Well I would vote labour if he is in charge. Apparently my vote doesn't count. According to them. .

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well I would vote labour if he is in charge. Apparently my vote doesn't count. According to them. .

There was a moment there when I heard politicians like Corbyn and McDonnell talking about a world I recognised. I take comfort in knowing I'm not the only person who felt like that.

 

[xenon]

There was a moment there when I heard politicians like Corbyn and McDonnell talking about a world I recognised. I take comfort in knowing I'm not the only person who felt like that.

All I hear from the politico droids in the mainsteam media. Is he's unelectable. The 3 quidders are naive, flighty etc. Where is David Miliband would presumably have swept into power on a massive public majority.

I don't mind being a minority view in the grand scheme of things. But I won't be told by these robot degenerate bastards.

Of course I know it is and the socialist utopia. But it's all we've got. Mainstream Parliamentary democracy wires. And look how they murder it.

 

[D'wards]

John Major.

Verses Neil Kinnock - ahthankyew

 

[Idris2002]

Verses Neil Kinnock - ahthankyew

Alright!

 

[ViolentPanda]

Simple question - do you think Corbyn is capable of winning a general election? Put in a few choices to help paint a slightly more nuanced picture.

No, I don't, but I don't expect Corbyn to stand in 2020 anyway, and neither do many people who've been following his strategy.

 

[ViolentPanda]

To vote against this -- to say he is not capable of winning -- you are basically saying that you can conceive of no circumstances that could lead to a Corbyn victory. That such a thing is impossible. I think that's a real failure of imagination.

I think I'd have to be more definitive, and say that I can't conceive of a situation where, however capable, he'd be allowed to win - either by his own Parliamentary party, or by the media - a GE. That doesn't, however, mean I can't see a Labour victory in 2020 on a Corbynite manifesto, because I can.

 

[Raheem]

No, I don't, but I don't expect Corbyn to stand in 2020 anyway, and neither do many people who've been following his strategy.

I didn't expect him to stand either, but what I expected was for him to stand down in favour if one of the people who have now resigned from the shadow cabinet and gone on record slating him (one of them is even standing against him). Not so clear now how he avoids staying on until 2020.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I didn't expect him to stand either, but what I expected was for him to stand down in favour if one of the people who have now resigned from the shadow cabinet and gone on record slating him (one of them is even standing against him). Not so clear now how he avoids staying on until 2020.

He has pulled the other candidates towards him - forcing them to say things on some of his agenda, pledging tax increases for the rich, for instance, and addressing the question of inequality that Blair had banished. That's a victory of sorts.

 

[skyscraper101]

Presuming you mean a Jez fronted Labour party returning to power, I don't see it happening.

 

[ViolentPanda]

i think i'm asking if it's even a cap...

corbyn is not the messiah, imo. altho he has the beard for it. i just cannot see him winning.

Pfft. His beard is totally kempt and well-trimmed. It's about as messianic as a bottle of Dr Pepper.

Any fule kno that a proper messianic beard is long, straggly and unkempt, sometimes with added bird's nest and/or food reserves.

 

[DotCommunist]

Pfft. His beard is totally kempt and well-trimmed. It's about as messianic as a bottle of Dr Pepper.

Any fule kno that a proper messianic beard is long, straggly and unkempt, sometimes with added bird's nest and/or food reserves.

the 40 days in the desert beard. You come back with beard and prophecy

 

[ViolentPanda]

The question surely is if labour can win a general election. The problem is the labour party and the relationships it has chosen to develop with both its core traditional vote and the wider working class that are subject to the effects of the policies that it chose to pursue when placed in the wider conditions of massively increased global capital mobility the death of the fordist model of social organisation etc. The idea that this is down to one person or any simplistic derivatives such as charisma - or could be fixed via one person is utter nonsense.

Yup.
Problem is, this whole personality cult schtick/the myth of the "strong leader" serves the current system way too well precisely because of the relationship between the party and the "core traditional vote and the wider working class". It reduces questions of structure and social relations to a glib focus on the (perceived) traits of individuals, and what that means for the electorate.

 

[ViolentPanda]

quite so. and i think i would find it hard to vote for JC. full disclosure: i'm a lab voter & always have been, and a mostly paid-up party member. i cannot blindly vote for a leader i do not believe in however.

Surely, if you're voting on the basis of who you "believe in", then by definition your vote is blind - or at least blinded - by your belief?

 

[DJWrongspeed]

That said, the record and even Jezza's friends, seem to suggest he wouldn't know a decent media strategy if it bit him on the arse, so he does also seem capable of throwing away such an opportunity.

That's the key point I think. He failed miserably in the referendum as well. In the dog fight of a GE I don't think he'd come out well. Khan on the other hand.....

I want to support Corbyn for his policies but right now we're in a whole new situation and I don't think he's up to delivering a win.

 

[butchersapron]

How do you think he failed in the referendum?

 

[ViolentPanda]

Alright!

Every time I remember that slap-headed fuckwit giving it the biggun like some fucking revivalist preacher, I feel like hunting the be-titled shitcunt down, and subjecting him to the death of ten thousand slaps!

 

[ViolentPanda]

I didn't expect him to stand either, but what I expected was for him to stand down in favour if one of the people who have now resigned from the shadow cabinet and gone on record slating him (one of them is even standing against him). Not so clear now how he avoids staying on until 2020.

He's got just under 4 years to work on who would be his best successor, and the majority of the PLP have helped him tremendously by thinning the herd.

Arguably, in about 2018, he'll stand down, and a new leadership election will establish who takes Labour forward to the election. I doubt it'll be any of the Maquis/Progress tendency. They're a busted flush now, even in their own constituencies. If the momentum (small m!) is kept up in those constituencies, then they're fucked, especially if selection is an issue at either of the next 2 Conferences.

 

[Rob Ray]

That's the key point I think. He failed miserably in the referendum as well. In the dog fight of a GE I don't think he'd come out well. Khan on the other hand.....

I want to support Corbyn for his policies but right now we're in a whole new situation and I don't think he's up to delivering a win.

If winning in 2020 is the limit of your vision as a left-winger and you're backing Eagle and Owen as alternatives you're already a loser. You're backing losers in four years' time, a strategy guaranteeing 20 years of losing as the core Labour support base crumbles, a generation of US Democratic Party light politics with no parliamentary left worth the name for the forseeable. I'm not even in the party political camp and I'm astonished at how intent on losing people like you seem to be. I'm in awe. There's no way, as an anarchist, that I could dedicate myself so wholeheartedly to fucking up the social democratic project. Hats off to you.

 

[free spirit]

That's the key point I think. He failed miserably in the referendum as well. In the dog fight of a GE I don't think he'd come out well. Khan on the other hand.....

I want to support Corbyn for his policies but right now we're in a whole new situation and I don't think he's up to delivering a win.

an extra £10-14 million a year in membership fees, plus an extra 350,000 members to help fight the election battles ought to make the possibility of winning significantly more likely than under Milliband, and most of that would be lost if this coup succeeds.

There have been teething problems, but the team around him are getting stronger and more experienced, and are clearly far better at organising elections campaigning than the muppets behind the other candidates campaigns, which have all been beset by problems.

 

[maomao]

No-one here can accurately predict what will happen at the next election. IMO though, whether or not Corbyn can win it, Labour won't get anywhere without him. The Tories despite everything are projecting competence and have the right wing vote sewn up. The market for identical policies with a civilising veneer of identity politics on top is vanishingly small and they don't seem to have a personality who could sell it. Smith and Eagle are buffoons and would do worse than Milliband.