Hong Kong: what next?

[moochedit]

Meanwhile the hk goverment hires a dodgy uk pr firm to improve their image...same one the saudi leader uses.

The Guardian: Hong Kong government hires London PR firm to improve image.

Hong Kong government hires London PR firm to improve image

Consulum’s contract coincides with China passing a harsh new security law for the territory

www.theguardian.com

 

[Rimbaud]

Hong Kong: UK makes citizenship offer to residents

Up to three million people living in the former colony are being given the chance to settle in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

Up to 3 million Hong Kong citizens offered path to British citizenship.

It seems likely Taiwan will take similar measures.

Taiwan opens office to help Hong Kong asylum seekers

New office aims to provide assistance in work, education to people leaving Hong Kong because of safety fears.

www.aljazeera.com

The US is looking at a bipartisan bill to grant some HK citizens refugee status:

Congress Launches Bipartisan Bill to Give Refugee Status to Certain Hong Kong Residents

Lawmakers of both parties introduced a bill to give refugee status to Hong Kong residents at risk of persecution under the Chinese territory’s new national-security law.

www.wsj.com

I imagine other places will be trying to attract skills and capital from the sinking Hong Kong ship as well.

It will be interesting to see the scale of emigration from Hong Kong over the next year. Hong Kong is over - the economic effect on Guangdong province and on the mainland as a whole is also something to keep a close eye on.

 

[The39thStep]

No sanctions being proposed against China ?

 

[not-bono-ever]

No sanctions being proposed against China ?

lol

 

[not-bono-ever]

amazing how $$$$ override all other concerns for the UKG

but this move is pretty serious - Head Office Party Central have effectively free reign in HK now, not answerable to the local bobbies or meddling legals. Its terrifying - you can be bundled out of the territory and no one can do anything about it. Its Stasi tactics. If you have any anti PRC background worth noting, you would be ill advised to travel to HK these days.

 

[platinumsage]

No sanctions being proposed against China ?

Would they work? No. Lucky they aren’t being proposed then isn’t it.

Sanctions aren’t the answer to everything, or many things really.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky News is reporting one guy was arrested for carrying a banner saying 'Hong Kong Independence', but in tiny text before that it says 'Say no to...', interesting, but not sure if it will stand up in court over there.

Reminds me of car stickers in the 70's to get around the law preventing promoting offshore pirate radio...

 

[not-bono-ever]

Offering several million unhappy people the chance to settle in the UK works in the favour of the PRC is some ways. HKs own Mariel moment but 20x bigger ( thats a bad one to use but you know)

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Why the convoluted offer from Raab though? China's already making moves to block it, they already do not permit or acknowledge dual nationality. The UK could turn all HK BNO passport holders in to full British citizens today if it wished.


HK has in one day gone from a place with laws that closely mirror the UK's to a police state where chanting a slogan in the street can be an offence with a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. China's killing its golden goose.

 

[MickiQ]

Why the convoluted offer from Raab though? China's already making moves to block it, they already do not permit or acknowledge dual nationality. The UK could turn all HK BNO passport holders in to full British citizens today if it wished.


HK has in one day gone from a place with laws that closely mirror the UK's to a police state where chanting a slogan in the street can be an offence with a maximum sentence of life imprisonment. China's killing its golden goose.

It probably isn't anymore, when HK was handed over to China, it was worth 20% of the Chinese economy, now it's down to >2% and falling. HK hasn't shrunk but China has grown massively in the intervening years. There is some economic hit to be add but more than livable with. But beyond that what is anyone going to do? China has grown too big and too powerful to be pressured from overseas. It's not a regime that feels it has to cater to public opinion either home or abroad.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Dragging people off flights overnight. Ffs

 

[Yossarian]

Reading this new law just makes me feel sick - life sentences, secret trials, deportation to the mainland - friends in Hong Kong are deleting their social media accounts and some of those who are able to are accelerating plans to get the fuck out. And the West seems inclined to mostly just go on appeasing Beijing, they could probably invade Taiwan at this point without facing worse consequences than some sternly worded emails.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Reading this new law just makes me feel sick - life sentences, secret trials, deportation to the mainland - friends in Hong Kong are deleting their social media accounts and some of those who are able to are accelerating plans to get the fuck out. And the West seems inclined to mostly just go on appeasing Beijing, they could probably invade Taiwan at this point without facing worse consequences than some sternly worded emails.

What to do? Stop buying Made In China crap? Take my overdraft away from HSBC?

 

[Yossarian]

What to do? Stop buying Made In China crap? Take my overdraft away from HSBC?

Fuck knows, even offering support to Hong Kong protesters could end up getting people in very serious trouble now - under Article 28, receiving "funding or other kinds of support from a foreign country or an institution, organisation or individual outside the mainland, Hong Kong and Macao" is punishable by up to life in prison.

In full: Official English translation of the Hong Kong national security law | Hong Kong Free Press HKFP

Below is the full text of Hong Kong’s controversial new national security law. For context, read our explainer. The Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Contents Chapter I General Principles Chapter II The Duties...

hongkongfp.com

 

[not-bono-ever]

yup. i have mentioned this before but I know some hongers who are evacuating their kids to the UK- one young un was ID'd during the protests and it was made clear to the family that he was fucked career and whatever wise if he stayed in HK.

 

[ska invita]

t's a totally empty gesture and it's to the older people of Hong Kong. The people who are making all the noise and protesting are predominately younger and don't qualify for them. If I read it correctly, it could split families.

I read you have to be born before handover - 1997 - so aged 23 and above
however even if the visa thing does happen it presumes the CCP will let people leave

 

[Yossarian]

"Ultimately, no one can win in this revolution, but please stay with us and bear witness."

 

[not-bono-ever]

brave people

 

[Rimbaud]

It probably isn't anymore, when HK was handed over to China, it was worth 20% of the Chinese economy, now it's down to >2% and falling. HK hasn't shrunk but China has grown massively in the intervening years. There is some economic hit to be add but more than livable with. But beyond that what is anyone going to do? China has grown too big and too powerful to be pressured from overseas. It's not a regime that feels it has to cater to public opinion either home or abroad.

Relative size of GDP understates the importance of Hong Kong - as a base for foreign companies to operate within China, it is an important source of foreign currency reserves. Lots of Chinese state owned companies set up parallel companies based in Hong Kong and trade on the Hong Kong stock exchange, which allows them to gain access to foreign currency reserves.

The reason this matters is because the Yuan is a non-convertible currency so Chinese needs foreign currency to service international debts.

So the end of Hong Kong as a financial centre, which looks imminent, really could destroy China's economy.

The leadership is cloistered and living in an echo chamber. They sincerely believed that Han Guoyu would win the election in Taiwan, and also expected a landslide victory for the pro-Beijing camp in HK local elections. They believed trade war rhetoric fron the US was electioneering which would amount to nothing. They attacked India believing that India wouldn't dare to retaliate economically.

And now they believe that this law will strengthen Hong Kong's stability and keep business operating there.

They are wrong. This isn't 4D chess, this is a return to echo chamber stupidity from the party which brought you the Great Leap Forward.

Some articles to explain it in more detail:

Explainer: How important is Hong Kong to the rest of China?

Concerns over Hong Kong's political and economic future are growing as pro-democracy protests drag on and turn increasingly violent, and China makes clear that forceful intervention is possible.

www.reuters.com

The role of foreign debt:

China’s Companies Have Unseen Foreign Debt That’s Maturing Fast

The foreign debt built up by Chinese companies is about a third bigger than official data show, adding to the pressure on the country’s currency reserves as a wave of repayment obligations approaches in 2020.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[ska invita]

So the end of Hong Kong as a financial centre, which looks imminent

Why might this happen? Money gives zero shits about people or politics

 

[Rimbaud]

Why might this happen? Money gives zero shits about people or politics

1 - Hong Kong is no longer exempt from US tariffs or sanctions on China.
2 - Mass emigration/capital flight due to safety concerns.
3 - The independence of Hong Kong courts makes them more reliable as a place to do business as they can be trusted to enforce contracts and manage disputes fairly, compared to the courts in China which are political. Good luck taking a Chinese company to court for IP theft in a Chinese Court. This is another factor which will lead to companies in Hong Kong relocating to Singapore or elsewhere.

 

[Rimbaud]

1 - Hong Kong is no longer exempt from US tariffs or sanctions on China.
2 - Mass emigration/capital flight due to safety concerns.
3 - The independence of Hong Kong courts makes them more reliable as a place to do business as they can be trusted to enforce contracts and manage disputes fairly, compared to the courts in China which are political. Good luck taking a Chinese company to court for IP theft in a Chinese Court. This is another factor which will lead to companies in Hong Kong relocating to Singapore or elsewhere.

Also another reason - this is a major indicator that the Chinese government cannot be trusted to uphold any agreements and does not respond to public opinion (see taking two Canadians as hostage for another example). There are already serious efforts to move at least some supply chains out of China and this is certainly going to discourage companies from expanding into the Chinese Market, which will also have a disproportionate impact on Hong Kong.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Why might this happen? Money gives zero shits about people or politics

Companies that want a presence in China but for various reasons can't set up in the mainland can now no longer be in HK either. Would imagine champagne corks are popping in Singapore right now.

 

[kebabking]

What to do? Stop buying Made In China crap? Take my overdraft away from HSBC?

yup. when you go to Carphone Warehouse tell them you're not interested in buying a Chinese phone - that will filter up. same with HSBC - we've closed our accounts with them (i've had an HSBC account since i was a Griffen Saver...), and told them they we weren't prepared to bank with them. don't let your kids use TikTok. send your MP a letter about your concern - he's a big beast on the tory back benches, you're pushing at an open door.

China executes more people every year than every other nation put together, they have abut 1.5 million people in actual concentration camps purely on account of their cultural identity, and they have a forced sterilisation programe for that same ethnic minority. sound familar?

you probably wouldn't have bought a BMW or used Deutsche Bank in 1939....

 

[not-bono-ever]

earlier this year, a planned China - London mutual stock trading scheme was quietly abandoned by central command after years of planning due to lack of interest amongst the non Chinese side of the arrangement due to uncertainty about risk. HK always handled this outward facing business- there is no confidence in the future direction of a PRC managed structure. I can see mass decamping of HK companies to regional locations - the singaporeans and Australians have the expertise and are gagging to get them onbord.

 

[Saul Goodman]

Hong Kong: UK makes citizenship offer to residents

Up to three million people living in the former colony are being given the chance to settle in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

Up to 3 million Hong Kong citizens offered path to British citizenship.

Hong Kong protestors offered British citizenship insist they’d rather be teargassed
Boris Johnson’s generous offer of citizenship to three million Hong Kong residents has met a subdued response among young people not keen on embracing a far-flung, racist shithole run by a fat, blond arsehole.
After China announced a new raft of measures for keeping the former British subjects in line, many thought the UK would be inundated with applications from highly-skilled IT graduates eager to pick fruit and experience incest in Norfolk.

Hong Kong protestors offered British citizenship insist they’d rather be teargassed

Boris Johnson’s generous offer of citizenship to three million Hong Kong residents has met a subdued response among young people not keen on embracing a far-flung, racist shithole run by a fat, blo…

newsthump.com

 

[vanya]

This will not go down well in Taiwan. If Beijing wanted to win over Taiwan they should have demonstrated that one country two systems can work. I don't think this Xi Jinping character is all that clever.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

yup. when you go to Carphone Warehouse tell them you're not interested in buying a Chinese phone - that will filter up. same with HSBC - we've closed our accounts with them (i've had an HSBC account since i was a Griffen Saver...), and told them they we weren't prepared to bank with them. don't let your kids use TikTok. send your MP a letter about your concern - he's a big beast on the tory back benches, you're pushing at an open door.

China executes more people every year than every other nation put together, they have abut 1.5 million people in actual concentration camps purely on account of their cultural identity, and they have a forced sterilisation programe for that same ethnic minority. sound familar?

you probably wouldn't have bought a BMW or used Deutsche Bank in 1939....

You are 100% right and I will switch my accounts from HSBC, seems a fairly straightforward thing to do these days.

The bigger problem is the made in China crap though, they don't make much under their own steam that I would be interested in, but buying American, i-phone = made in China, sodding everything is. How to get around that problem?

 

[hash tag]

Nokia?
probably not the best and probably got Chinese parts.
fair phones not easy to come by.

HTC

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Nokia?
probably not the best and probably got Chinese parts.
fair phones not easy to come by.

HTC

I don't know, but would hazard a guess that all of them are packed with made in China parts, it;s harder than boycotting Nestle.