Have we been lucky? Just how much worse could the Coronavirus crisis have been?
- Thread starter Kevbad the Bad
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Very much. Picture the scene. It is late 1348 and the black death has been raging for months. In the hamlet the twenty-first century will know as Brixton kevbad the malodorous is holding court at urban lxxv, musing how much worse the plague might have been...
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plenty of other ways it can get much worse without any mutations that include that effect.
Coinfection stuff isnt well understood with this virus yet. Could be a mixed pixture, eg worse outcomes for people who en up with covid-19 and influenza at the same time, but also possible that being infected with one makes it harder to be infected with the other at the same time. Winter will tell us more about this, unless our modified behaviours or any coinfection-related immunity prevent enough flu etc from co-circulating in the first place, leaving our picture incomplete.
Anyway this virus is already quite bad enough on a front that forces governments to act, even though that government action is often too little, too late. The hospitalisation rates for Covid-19 are way too high to ignore. 138,061 patients admitted to hospital in the UK so far as far as official data is concerned, and that number would have been higher if the testing regime really picked up every such case, and if hospital demand had not been suppressed at certain stages.
Coinfection stuff isnt well understood with this virus yet. Could be a mixed pixture, eg worse outcomes for people who en up with covid-19 and influenza at the same time, but also possible that being infected with one makes it harder to be infected with the other at the same time. Winter will tell us more about this, unless our modified behaviours or any coinfection-related immunity prevent enough flu etc from co-circulating in the first place, leaving our picture incomplete.
Anyway this virus is already quite bad enough on a front that forces governments to act, even though that government action is often too little, too late. The hospitalisation rates for Covid-19 are way too high to ignore. 138,061 patients admitted to hospital in the UK so far as far as official data is concerned, and that number would have been higher if the testing regime really picked up every such case, and if hospital demand had not been suppressed at certain stages.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Yep it's 0.6-1% with the potential to go way higher if hospital capacity is overwhelmed, and then there are all the heart and lung issues that even people who have had asymptomatic infections can get, long term health effects and so on.
If 50% of the world get a virus that kills 0.6-1% of infected patients that's millions of people dead, with millions more severely ill for months on end then that's pretty bad.
If 50% of the world get a virus that kills 0.6-1% of infected patients that's millions of people dead, with millions more severely ill for months on end then that's pretty bad.
2hats
Dust.
Virulence does not necessarily map directly to lethality (which that article also touches upon).The logic of that makes sense but I'm not sure that angle is quite as clearcut as tends to be presented.
eg:
Virulence: A positive or negative trait for evolution? | Virology Blog
With just 141 confirmed deaths so far, an interesting question is whether the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus could mutate into something more lethal ("How a ...www.virology.ws
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah and as the other long term potential health effects for people who have caught it in this period, there is also the potential very long term consequences if this virus becomes endemic in a manner that leaves it as a nasty seasonal virus that will kill some people in future, albeit not in pandemic numbers.
This isnt an influenza virus so when I mention things like the following, its not with a high degree of confidence that a similar thing will happen with this virus. But if I look at the H3N2 influenza virus, it caused a pandemic in the late 1960's which featured plenty of death. But H3N2 has also been responsible for many of the nasty flu epidemics in the decades since, killing tens of thousands in a season in the UK when it has a bad epidemic year such as the one of winter 1999/2000.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
No, but lethality (by which I presume you mean death), is not the only measure of serious harm. Living with long term problems such as respiratory illnesses etc in a perhaps overwhelmed, underfunded healthcare system is a scenario without much fun.
This is by no means over.
And it could get a lot worse.
As soon as people become fatigued and tired of restrictions there will be movement and meeting up. Then we will see a resurgence of Covid19 which could well coincode with flu and the result will be hospitals becoming overwhelmed. Once Covid19 gets into the wards in hospitals it will spread and woe betide all the staff and the patients there for everything but covid19.
This wont end until either all the vulnerable people are dead and everyone else has survived Covid19 for this year....or until a vaccine is found and distributed world wide. Then we will just have to wait for the next pandemic.
And it could get a lot worse.
As soon as people become fatigued and tired of restrictions there will be movement and meeting up. Then we will see a resurgence of Covid19 which could well coincode with flu and the result will be hospitals becoming overwhelmed. Once Covid19 gets into the wards in hospitals it will spread and woe betide all the staff and the patients there for everything but covid19.
This wont end until either all the vulnerable people are dead and everyone else has survived Covid19 for this year....or until a vaccine is found and distributed world wide. Then we will just have to wait for the next pandemic.
2hats
Dust.
I suggest you go back and read my original statement.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
I should have added ‘so far’ on the end there.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Kevbad the malodorous - for some strange reason I quite like that.
We've been 'lucky' enough for 'all this' to have sparked a seriously high level of vaccine research all over the world 
Not all of which will turn out to be utterly disappointing in its results**, either 
**I say absolutely zero about WHEN, though
... but I DO say there will not be never 
an effective vaccine!
Not all of which will turn out to be utterly disappointing in its results**, either
**I say absolutely zero about WHEN, though
... but I DO say there will not be never an effective vaccine! 
friendofdorothy
Solidarity against neoliberalism!
things can always get worse. I'm not feeling very lucky most of the time - though I do feel lucky that it has not been worse for me, and that I remain well and can afford to eat.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Pandemics didnt have much trouble getting started in the days before air travel. It just took longer.
Most of the economic etc reasons why governments didnt want to restrict travel will still exist going forwards. However, attitudes and actions may still end up different in those circumstances as a result of lessons learnt in this pandemic.
'Developed' nations like the UK that 'need' this sot of global interconnectivity to make their current economic systems/exploitation work will be the least likely to act differently next time, and are more likely to pay lip service to the issues via half-arsed stuff.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Like this, where the entire European population is wiped out. Which, primarily leaves space for the Chinese and Arab peoples to become the ducks of modern history.
The Years of Rice and Salt - Wikipedia
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Nipah virus infection - Wikipedia
Proper nightmare fuel, about a 69% CFR with evidence of person to person transmission. If this ever starts spreading easily among people the way COVID-19 is we are in big fucking trouble.
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I think covid is bad enough tbh.
I think the current quarantine measures and reduction in travel might stop these other viruses from taking off and spreading among the population for the time being.
However, I have read articles suggesting the number of outbreaks and potential pandemics are increasing because of human encroachment onto habitats and treatment of animals eg overcrowded farms, markets and so on.
There's also this 'novel bunyavirus' which caused a small outbreak in China earlier this year.
en.m.wikipedia.org
I think the current quarantine measures and reduction in travel might stop these other viruses from taking off and spreading among the population for the time being.
However, I have read articles suggesting the number of outbreaks and potential pandemics are increasing because of human encroachment onto habitats and treatment of animals eg overcrowded farms, markets and so on.
There's also this 'novel bunyavirus' which caused a small outbreak in China earlier this year.
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome - Wikipedia
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Yes I have seen that also.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
The pandemic potential of Nipah virus
Nipah virus, a paramyxovirus whose wildlife reservoir is Pteropus bats, was first discovered in a large outbreak of acute encephalitis in Malaysia in …
in kerala where the virus emerged most recently in 2018, thousands of people were put in quarantine, schools were shut and some forms of social distancing (but not lockdown) were introduced
If someone gets on a plane while they were infected with this thing, we could be in a lot of trouble tbh.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Given Malaysia's record with plane crashes it's possible we might swerve that bulletThe pandemic potential of Nipah virus
Nipah virus, a paramyxovirus whose wildlife reservoir is Pteropus bats, was first discovered in a large outbreak of acute encephalitis in Malaysia in …www.sciencedirect.com
in kerala where the virus emerged most recently in 2018, thousands of people were put in quarantine, schools were shut and some forms of social distancing (but not lockdown) were introduced
If someone gets on a plane while they were infected with this thing, we could be in a lot of trouble tbh.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Thought 'novel bunyip' at first, which would be better than the bunyavirus. Or more novel anywayI think covid is bad enough tbh.
I think the current quarantine measures and reduction in travel might stop these other viruses from taking off and spreading among the population for the time being.
However, I have read articles suggesting the number of outbreaks and potential pandemics are increasing because of human encroachment onto habitats and treatment of animals eg overcrowded farms, markets and so on.
There's also this 'novel bunyavirus' which caused a small outbreak in China earlier this year.
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome - Wikipedia
farmerbarleymow
I'm Petee's spirit animal
We're creating perfect conditions for spillover events and our ever increasing demand for resources just makes this worse. We have no idea how many potential viruses are lurking in the mammalian world that could infect us.
Chilli.s
mingling jets and statuettes
Sorry to say but this is far from over. Although the good news is it seems to be much less deadly than a pandemic could be.
Air travel is an obvious accelerant in the spread and well connected uk seems sadly unable to face the facts of this. New Zealand has closed its borders a lot more strictly, even going to the extent of seizing a yacht that arrived without permission, fining then deporting the occupants and auctioning the boat with no reserve to cover the costs. Italy has screening for infection at airports for all arrivals. UK still has the green duty free lane with mabey a handout and notice about masks.
Air travel is an obvious accelerant in the spread and well connected uk seems sadly unable to face the facts of this. New Zealand has closed its borders a lot more strictly, even going to the extent of seizing a yacht that arrived without permission, fining then deporting the occupants and auctioning the boat with no reserve to cover the costs. Italy has screening for infection at airports for all arrivals. UK still has the green duty free lane with mabey a handout and notice about masks.
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