Hartlepool by-election

[PR1Berske]

There is to be a by-election held in Hartlepool following the resignation of Mike Hill. He had been subject to allegations of sexual impropriety.

Wikipedia page : 2021 Hartlepool by-election


Previous result:

 

[muscovyduck]

What's 'sexual impropriety'?

 

[PR1Berske]

What's 'sexual impropriety'?

"Sexual harassment", my inner thesaurus chose another word I was typing. More info here - Labour MP accused of sexual harassment claims £2,000 in expenses for case

 

[muscovyduck]

"Sexual harassment", my inner thesaurus chose another word I was typing. More info here - Labour MP accused of sexual harassment claims £2,000 in expenses for case

Oh thanks but it looks like the allegation is sexual assault?

 

[chilango]

Hopefully the NIP stand and do well enough to make it interesting.

 

[muscovyduck]

Hopefully the NIP stand and do well enough to make it interesting.

These people?

 

[Santino]

Can we get a monkey to stand?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Starmer will be shitting himself: here’s the red wall Kieth....

 

[chilango]

These people?

Yeah.

Not that I particularly support them or anything, but it would be interesting.

 

[planetgeli]

Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.

 

[killer b]

Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.

it doesn't look great for them looking at the 2019 figures, but it really depends who's standing, and the forces in play are different to 2019 - presumably Farage's new lot (Reform?) will be up, which will suck up a lot of the BP vote, and there isn't the 'lend the tories a vote to push through Brexit' current - difficult to balance up atm.

 

[Riklet]

I think labour have got 0 chance here, whoever stands.

 

[PR1Berske]

Hartlepool election results 1997-2019

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.

I suspect their priority will be holding their deposit

 

[PR1Berske]

The "Northern Independence Party" claim they are standing in the by-election (Twitter source: )

They're not (currently) registered with the Electoral Commission so can't use their name if they do stand: Search - The Electoral Commission

 

[chilango]

The "Northern Independence Party" claim they are standing in the by-election (Twitter source: )

They're not (currently) registered with the Electoral Commission so can't use their name if they do stand: Search - The Electoral Commission

They were registering a few weeks back iirc.

 

[gosub]

I think labour have got 0 chance here, whoever stands.

before or after the Labour candidate gets Lord Mandelson's endorsement?

 

[PaulOK]

There is to be a by-election held in Hartlepool following the resignation of Mike Hill. He had been subject to allegations of sexual impropriety.

Wikipedia page : 2021 Hartlepool by-election


Previous result:

Labour will be praying a UKIP style party stands to split the right vote (I can't keep up with all the name changes. Are they still Brexit party or Reform now?). If the Tories run unchallenged by a Farage vehicle on that side then they have a shot at winning. This is key for Starmer.
It will obviously attract all the joke weirdos and no hoper candidates too.

 

[JimW]

It will obviously attract all the joke weirdos and no hoper candidates too.

That's Labour short lists for you these days, I'm afraid.

 

[The39thStep]

If you want an explanation about how Labour lost the working class, how a progressive working class voice has been abandoned and how the far right can get a toe hold then the North East is a good starting point imo.

 

[Dom Traynor]

I know Hartlepool, the local Labour party, and Mike very well. I'll be amazed if the Tories dont win as long as they don't pick a mad candidate which is possible in the Pool.

 

[Knotted]

The state of the current national polling for Labour is bad but not disastrous and considering the Brexit issue is now dead and done, I think Labour are in with a good chance. 50/50.

 

[chilango]

Presumably Lozza will put his money where his mouth is and give the good voters of Hartlepool a chance to cancel him into losing his deposit?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I know Hartlepool, the local Labour party, and Mike very well. I'll be amazed if the Tories dont win as long as they don't pick a mad candidate which is possible in the Pool.

Depends on whether Reform UK or whatever they are called run, and to what extent they can retain the support of BP voters from last time surely? One thing is already clear: Labour relying on a fringe anti EU party to hold a seat in the NE tells us everything we need to know about it’s ‘revival’ under Kieth

 

[brogdale]

Depends on whether Reform UK or whatever they are called run, and to what extent they can retain the support of BP voters from last time surely? One thing is already clear: Labour relying on a fringe anti EU party to hold a seat in the NE tells us everything we need to know about it’s ‘revival’ under Kieth

I don't really see how RefUK can hold onto much of the BP vote at all, tbh. They don't have the brand recognition, leadership or core policy platform that attracted > 10k voters last time. Must be a strong chance that much of that former BP vote will go to the Tory candidate.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Depends on whether Reform UK or whatever they are called run, and to what extent they can retain the support of BP voters from last time surely? One thing is already clear: Labour relying on a fringe anti EU party to hold a seat in the NE tells us everything we need to know about it’s ‘revival’ under Kieth

Yeah maybe I suspect they won't run unless they think they might actually win which I guess there is an outside chance of there if anywhere.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Surely if Tice and Co have got any ambition whatsoever then a by-election in a very strong leave seat (where the BP decisively split the leave vote in the GE) means they have to stand? Not to do indicates that their project is dead?

 

[DownwardDog]

The Socialist Labour Party which is helmed by Scargill's lich have four local councillors so surely one of the SCABs will stand in the by-election.

 

[brogdale]

Surely if Tice and Co have got any ambition whatsoever then a by-election in a very strong leave seat (where the BP decisively split the leave vote in the GE) means they have to stand? Not to do indicates that their project is dead?

Their project is dead, isn't it?

 

[MickiQ]

I reckon it's 50/50 as well, now that Brexit is no longer the be-all and end-all of British Politics, voters who deserted Labour for the Tories and Brexit may well return. It's irrelevant in the context of national politics but its probably important to Starmer's power and prestige in the Labour Party that Labour hold the seat.