Griffin and BNP strategy

[tbaldwin]

You seem rather sure of your opinion that the 'expose them' model has had some serious effect. What's your evidence? And please do try and square whatever you come up with with the historically unprecedented position the BNP has managed to develop for itself over the last decade.

You seem to have completely misread my post. My point was that i dont really know how anyone could be sure. I think your as guilty as anyone as trying to fit facts to your theory.
And it seems remarkably contradictory to emphasise the effect or non effect of uaf etc and ignore wider social issues.

 

[butchersapron]

You seem to have completely misread my post. My point was that i dont really know how anyone could be sure. I think your as guilty as anyone as trying to fit facts to your theory.
And it seems remarkably contradictory to emphasise the effect or non effect of uaf etc and ignore wider social issues.

I've argued above why i'm sure that it's had no or utterly minimal effects - you think i'm wrong and have said so a number of times. You ask me for evidence to support my case, i can point to electoral figures, membership figures, growth in national profiles, growth in number of candidates across all elections and in elected candidates across all but parliamentary elections, growth in number of media appearances, growth in national profile, recognition of leading figures, increase in importance in influencing the public political agenda, normalisation of their presence as part of the accepted political scene, increase in number of candidates re-elected, growth in territorial areas in which they've won elections or achieved good votes, consolidation of votes/branhce/members in areas where they've not won, huge increase in the number of areas where they've came second. You don't think this demonstrates that the expose them model is not working. What's your evidence?

And no, i've argued the exact opposite point, what have you two been drinking tonight? I argue that the 'expose them' model simply does not and cannot deal with the social issues that are driving the far-right vote that you mention - i even re-emphasise that quite clearly above. My point is that it's these social issues that need to be concentrated on not they should be ignored.

 

[butchersapron]

On a scale of one to 10, what you say was the scale of the media, Tory party and new labour campaign against asylum seekers, immigrants, muslim terrorism was in 1992?

Fearing for their seats, the Tory started this campaign in 1996ish, with one south coast editor refering to asylum seekers as human sewage. There were calls for concentration camps for asylum seekers. And even then I predicted this is where the campaign would lead, and ever increasing vote for the fascists.

You're right we do need to build an alternative as the real solution. And we can do that amongst a real mass anti-fascist campaigning, mass strikes, mass anti-capitalism, amongst the masses of progressive people, when there is an upturn in the class struggle. But! Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past. The minuscule left in the UK, cannot magic class struggle. We need to understand defensive as well as offensive actions.

Sorry, what point are you trying to make here? All i can see is you finally admitting that the BNP have increased their vote, whilst seemingly forgetting that you've argued that your favoured approach is actually retarding their growth. Yes, the tories helped create a climate where racism became more acceptable - and?

Odd how you can point out the nasty tories and their agenda setting attacks on asylum seekers that did much to racialise social issues and that labour continued with, yet you welcome them into your broad anti-racist front. Is this what you mean by 'defensive struggle' then?

 

[ViolentPanda]

Most people don't vote bnp, fact.

There's no fooling you, is there?

Why when the media, the Tories, and new labour has spent the last 13 years as a recruiting sergeant? It's not surprising that they're doing better, it is surprising they have not done a lot better than they have given the media coverage etc..

You appear to be operating on the principle that "any publicity is good publicity", which only really applies to targeted publicity, and the massive majority of mentions the BNP gets in the media are neither targeted nor complimentary.

Could the reason be most people dont vote for the BNP, be because they believe they are fascist and racist.

Quite probably.

And they have this view in no little part, due to the 'bleating' of the anti fascist?

Depends what you mean by "anti-fascist", really, doesn't it?
And whether you take into account that the anti-fascist view is disseminated in the same media that you say gives publicity to the BNP.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I dont see how you can be so sure butchers. The growth of the BNP has not been stopped by the UAF etc. But you really cant be sure what effect theyve had. There are lots of people disillusioned with mainstream politics,lots who think the 3 main parties speak crap on issues like crime and immigration. Yet as RMP says most people completely reject the BNP. I dont think you can really be sure that Hope not Hate etc has not had a good effect.
I think your debate is based on your idealogical straitjacket and you try to fit facts into your theory every much as the ANL etc.

Do you believe that UAF and HNH are as effective in what they do as AFA etc were?
IMO one of the many reasons that the BNP's ranks have grown is that racists have nothing to fear from UAF etc.

 

[tbaldwin]

I've argued above why i'm sure that it's had no or utterly minimal effects - you think i'm wrong and have said so a number of times. You ask me for evidence to support my case, i can point to electoral figures, membership figures, growth in national profiles, growth in number of candidates across all elections and in elected candidates across all but parliamentary elections, growth in number of media appearances, growth in national profile, recognition of leading figures, increase in importance in influencing the public political agenda, normalisation of their presence as part of the accepted political scene, increase in number of candidates re-elected, growth in territorial areas in which they've won elections or achieved good votes, consolidation of votes/branhce/members in areas where they've not won, huge increase in the number of areas where they've came second. You don't think this demonstrates that the expose them model is not working. What's your evidence?


.

No i think we both no what you posted does not prove calling the BNP nazis etc doesnt work.
It doesnt prove it all and you know it.
Its ridiculous to ASSUME that the anti approach your idealogically against has been all wrong.
Some of the ANL etc approach i have consistently argued against including when afa did it and i was a member.
AFA made many mistakes in the 80s whingeing on about the ANL pointlessly and hyping up the BNP which helped the BNP grow.

 

[tbaldwin]

Do you believe that UAF and HNH are as effective in what they do as AFA etc were?
IMO one of the many reasons that the BNP's ranks have grown is that racists have nothing to fear from UAF etc.

Sometimes possibly far more due to increased numbers and resources.
I think that being ssociated with the holocaust and race hate is not a great recipe for success for personally..
AFA moved away from physical conforntation in the 90s and started doing anl style anti fascism anyway they acted macho but were preety ineffective.
Thats why some of us left and did our own thing.

 

[ViolentPanda]

You seem rather sure of your opinion that the 'expose them' model has NOT had some serious effect. What's your evidence? And please do try and square whatever you come up with with the historically unprecedented concealment of its fascist position the BNP has managed to develop for itself over the last decade.

Why not? Griffin's "New Labour-isation" of the BNP has been a fundamental in widening its political acceptability (even if much of it is just window-dressing), as has been the policy of targeting council wards where their brand of argument plays best.
You imply that the "expose them" model has had a serious effect, but the main arguments used to substantiate this seem to be about the slow growth of BNP membership and the volume of anti-fascist denunciations of the "Nazi BNP" during Swappie-satellite gatherings.

If there racism and fascism does not deter voters, why do they conceal it?

It deters some. They conceal it so that it doesn't deter more. Even then, political circumstances, as well as social conditions for some people, are such at the moment that the BNP may be able to capitalise on discontent with th established political choices.
It's not a binary opposition of "fascist, not fascist", it's a bit more complex than that, whatever the shouty sloganeers tell you.

 

[ViolentPanda]

pot kettle.

Syphilitic frying pan.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I give up. You cant even fucking read when it's hilighted.

Be fair though, he reads better than you write.

 

[ViolentPanda]

On a scale of one to 10, what you say was the scale of the media, Tory party and new labour campaign against asylum seekers, immigrants, muslim terrorism was in 1992?

A couple of things:
New Labour didn't exist in 1992, and the Conservative party had been playing the immigration/refugee card ("asylum-seeker" hadn't passed in to common usage in 1992) since they took power in 1979.

Fearing for their seats, the Tory started this campaign in 1996ish

They never stopped the campaign they started when they stole the NF's clothes in the late 1970s.

with one south coast editor refering to asylum seekers as human sewage.

Actually, the editor of the chain of "Herald" newspapers in Kent.

There were calls for concentration camps for asylum seekers. And even then I predicted this is where the campaign would lead, and ever increasing vote for the fascists.

A blind man could predict that an anti-immigration rhetoric would normalise right-wing ideas.

You're right we do need to build an alternative as the real solution. And we can do that amongst a real mass anti-fascist campaigning, mass strikes, mass anti-capitalism, amongst the masses of progressive people, when there is an upturn in the class struggle. But! Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past. The minuscule left in the UK, cannot magic class struggle. We need to understand defensive as well as offensive actions.

"The left" needs to understand strategy and tactics, and the value of not playing by the rules, but as the British left have for the most part not learned that lesson in the last 80 years, then I don't hold out much hope for anything but whining, paper sales and slogans.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Sometimes possibly far more due to increased numbers and resources.

I don't agree, mostly because they don't do the one thing that could fundamentally improve the spread of their message. They don't engage with communities on anything but a short-term basis.
Now, I don't know about you, but I never took to the whole Swappie-ite idea of dropping into an area on an irrgeular basis and "preaching to the natives", and while UAF appears to be building branches, they seem to be located in student areas...

I think that being ssociated with the holocaust and race hate is not a great recipe for success for personally..

That depends on whether you can successfully convince people that you've changed, at least enough so that a wider voter base can fool themselves that you're not a fascist.

AFA moved away from physical conforntation in the 90s and started doing anl style anti fascism anyway they acted macho but were preety ineffective.
Thats why some of us left and did our own thing.

Which misses the point that you don't have to use physical confrontation to be effective, and that the implied threat of what AFA could or might do worked to warn off the more staid members of the hard-right parties.

 

[The39thStep]

Some points for consideration:

British social attitude surveys indicate that the BNP success has been assisted by a 'perfect storm' whereby issues like the recession, immigration, crime, Europe have become dominant issues. Prominent in this is a view that does not accept the government and industries position that immigration brings economic benefits.

The experience of many people is that their communities have changed with people from abroad coming in this has increased competition for services such as housing, health, schools etc and this churn in community weakens community cohesion and challenges host communities.

Identity politics, multiculturalism favoured by the government racialises bothy the funding for social policy and social policy itself and pitches people against each other on the basis of race.in a period where representatives are very often chosen on the basis of race that the BNP will put themselves forward a representing whites.

This and the absence of class politics and a pro working class political movement creates the space for the BNP to grow.

Whilst there may be some impact of labelling the BNP as Nazis , exposing criminals in their midst this is countered by the fact their communications strategy emphasises patriotism not Nazism. It is estimated that there are broadly three types of BNP members ; those with links to NF and old BNP , political traveller who have previously trawled through different political parties and new members who are not likely to have been members of any other party and who genuinely do not associate themselves with neo Nazism.

The BNP has with some success built active local units with a presence that has more impact than the left very often focussing on local issues and community activism. They have done well in traditional working class areas, and unlike the NF attract first time voters, unemployed voters those who have stopped voting and now have voters for whom the BNP are their first choice. They are able to pick up votes on the doorstep because contrary to the BNP+nazis propaganda they come across as a serious political party with a fairly attractive agenda of what ever local issue they can find plus save the NHS, keeps jobs in Britain,anti globalisation, anti established three parties and their gravy train, , troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan . Add this to concerns on crime, recession, immigration and terrorism and it is quite easy to see that they have a reasonable product.

Don't vote Nazi without an alternative political choice enables the BNPO to come back time after time on the doorstep to challenge the motivation for this labelling as one that presents them as a victim of the three party monopoly in which they are misrepresented.

BNP voters analysis reveals that there is a strong correlation with age, low income, not educated to degree standard. The very people Denham initially said were dying out but are who are actually living longer and whose marginalisation with be further compounded by either a future labour or Tory govt.

The 'communities that have been left behind' initiative by the government is simply a short term attempt to dent the bNP vote and boost the labour vote in most areas. It is underfunded does not tackle the issues of employment , housing or public services ;it simply wants to communicate a 'different ' message by engaging with communities. There are no resources to meet the aspirations of those communities.

Despite infiltration, serious state disruption, a media that is anti BNP and no political allies the BNP are a successful political organsiation who have occupied the position of being the perceived fourth party. Ironically in a period where the left thought it would have that ambition.

A number of analysts have said that the BNP however need to break into new voter territory outside of the above if it is to be more than just an irritant . There is a school of thought that any expected two horse race in the general election could squeeze votes for UKIP/BNP/Greens but others would argue that the lack of credibility of the old parties creates space for 'new' parties.The BNP are sitting on a treasure chest through their success in the Euro elections.

 

[audiotech]

Exposing the BNP’s various criminal and political records has had no discernible impact. In a country in which more than 40 per cent of all men can expect to have some form of criminal conviction during their lifetime, pointing out to voters in the sort of areas the BNP targets that a candidate has a conviction for assault or theft is likely to have a limited impact.

Most voters do not attack immigrants, neither do they have arms caches in their homes and most voters are still disgusted by the BNP's association with fascism.

As for the 'don't vote BNP' strategy that is assumed to have 'failed'? Thankfully 98% of the population still don't vote BNP.

However, recently, a BBC reporter talking to the those voters of Barking who were considering voting BNP found that the only reason that they were doing so was because they had concerns about immigration. They had little, if any further knowledge about the BNP. So, important still to enlighten those about the BNP's hidden agenda.


...

 

[frogwoman]

I dont think the expose the BNP strategy has no value - i know loads of people from all classes who would never vote bnp for that reason - but it cannot be the only method used.

 

[audiotech]

I don't know about you, but I never took to the whole Swappie-ite idea of dropping into an area on an irrgeular basis and "preaching to the natives", and while UAF appears to be building branches, they seem to be located in student areas...

I can only go on my experience of the ANL mk1 and knowledge of this sort of activity. Then we slowly built up anti-fascist campaigning locally. It wasn't irregular, but consistent over a long period. Coupled with RAR, we managed to build in the community we were active within, with regular events to draw people into activity. I assume this is the same strategy today with UAF and LMHR?

 

[butchersapron]

Got a link for this? Of course, that's exactly what you'd expect to see when the BNP have been allowed to racialise what are social issues - exactly as i've argued has happened and is happening. Social issues appear through the prism of race, if you're so politically unaware that you can't see through that to the underlying issues then you're nowhere.

You've obviously not noted that i've been talking about the 'expose them' model in these posts, not the more broad 'don't vote BNP' model, a model that if not allied to a political alternative (as recently) offers little or nothing as well, beyond it's implicit vote labour/lib-dem/tory. And no, the fact that the BNP are merely a 4th or 5th party does not mean that this is a direct result of the approach that you favour. Argue why you think it is - and why has the vote risen to historically unprecedented levels combined with a whole range of other indicators of growth (some listed above) - and please don't take the rmp3 lazy route and just say it was the nasty tories (who are actually in his favoured anti-fascist vehicle) because that's irrelevant, if 'don't vote BNP' or the 'expose them' model works it would work whoever was setting the agenda. It either works or it doesn't - and today, in our conditions, the evidence strongly suggest that it doesn't.

 

[frogwoman]

I don't think the lack of people voting bnp necessarily has anything to do with the UAF etc. Many people don't even know who the uaf are

 

[butchersapron]

...and a hell of a lot more people most definitely do know who the BNP are. It's a delusional claim frankly.

 

[audiotech]

Is post #2927 addressed to me?

In local elections since June, the BNP has seen it's share of the vote fall in 16 out of 17 seats it has recontested.

The recent vote in Primrose (S. Tyneside MBC) on Feb 25 did see the BNP receive a high percentage (27.87%) of those that voted, however it's vote did fall by 5.06 percent, from 32.93% in 2008. Still a question mark about what happened there, as there were a couple of independents standing to consider?

 

[tbaldwin]

I dont think the expose the BNP strategy has no value - i know loads of people from all classes who would never vote bnp for that reason - but it cannot be the only method used.

Exactly Butchers arguement seems driven by ideological nonsense rather than common sense.
Nobody can say for sure what the effect of hope not hate etc has been.

In years gone by i was a very active militant anti fascist. I concentrated on the physical stuff and had little time for anti nazi propaganda and would have said it often helped promote the fascists to potential supporters.
I still think that it did in the 80s and 90s at times.
But these are very different times for the BNP now they are now hoping to attract the kind of people who are" not up for a fight" not skinheads, not young football hooligans but people who have genuine concerns about policies on crime,immigration,jobs and housing.#
The ways to counter that are going to be different. There has to be anti propaganda and after all his many many posts on this thread i still cant really understand what butchers would like uaf etc to do.

 

[butchersapron]

Is post #2927 addressed to me?

In local elections since June, the BNP has seen it's share of the vote fall in 16 out of 17 seats it has recontested.

The recent vote in Primrose (S. Tyneside MBC) on Feb 25 did see the BNP receive a high percentage (27.87%) of those that voted, however it's vote did fall by 5.06 percent, from 32.93% in 2008. Still a question mark about what happened there, as there were a couple of independents standing to consider?

Yes of course it is.

 

[audiotech]

Yes of course it is.

I think it was Gavin Esler of the BBC reporting on Barking, quoted somewhere. Might have been on Lancaster Unity. Sorry I can't be more specific,

 

[butchersapron]

Exactly Butchers arguement seems driven by ideological nonsense rather than common sense.
Nobody can say for sure what the effect of hope not hate etc has been.

In years gone by i was a very active militant anti fascist. I concentrated on the physical stuff and had little time for anti nazi propaganda and would have said it often helped promote the fascists to potential supporters.
I still think that it did in the 80s and 90s at times.
But these are very different times for the BNP now they are now hoping to attract the kind of people who are" not up for a fight" not skinheads, not young football hooligans but people who have genuine concerns about policies on crime,immigration,jobs and housing.#
The ways to counter that are going to be different. There has to be anti propaganda and after all his many many posts on this thread i still cant really understand what butchers would like uaf etc to do.

The massive rise in vote combined with a whole range of others factors indicating growing influence and acceptance suggests that it doesn't work - you really need to say why these things (some of them listed above) don't indicate what i argue that they do, why they mean it's impossible to tell if the 'expose them' model is working or not - rather than just saying it's impossible to tell.

Or ....how about this - how about having a think and then coming back telling us what you do think. After all, you've pretty openly said you think it works in previous threads - why so shy all of a sudden? Are you moving away from your previous position?

Common sense as opposed to ideological nonsense as well Seriously make an argument, a political one if you can.

 

[tbaldwin]

The massive rise in vote combined with a whole range of others factors indicating growing influence and acceptance suggests that it doesn't work - you really need to say why these things (some of them listed above) don't indicate what i argue that they do, why they mean it's impossible to tell if the 'expose them' model is working or not - rather than just saying it's impossible to tell.

Or ....how about this - how about having a think and then coming back telling us what you do think. After all, you've pretty openly said you think it works in previous threads - why so shy all of a sudden? Are you moving away from your previous position?

Common sense as opposed to ideological nonsense as well Seriously make an argument, a political one if you can.

It as you say may SUGGEST to you that it doesnt work. But it doesnt prove it doesnt work. Not at all. But you just cant admit it. You so so want to be the voice of authority on this its sad.
You can not put yourself in the mind of everybody who comes across uaf propaganda,clewver as you think you are. Some people will be swayed by it not to vote BNP and others may be swayed to vote BNP.
You ask if ive changed my position. I reconsider my political positions based on what i know. Times have changed since the 90s.
There needs to be a political opposition to the BNP on that we all agree.
But what kind of opposition. I certainly dont think a tiny sectarian orthodox left group like the IWCA is the answer. Do you? Have you got involved in it yet?
I dont think there any easy answers. Politically id disagree often with the likes of MC5 and RMP but there both looking to do something useful and i respect that and am not as able as you to condemn them for their efforts.

 

[butchersapron]

Is post #2927 addressed to me?

In local elections since June, the BNP has seen it's share of the vote fall in 16 out of 17 seats it has recontested.

The recent vote in Primrose (S. Tyneside MBC) on Feb 25 did see the BNP receive a high percentage (27.87%) of those that voted, however it's vote did fall by 5.06 percent, from 32.93% in 2008. Still a question mark about what happened there, as there were a couple of independents standing to consider?

Almost right, it's gone up in two. We need to integrate that with a wider picture though. Across that same period it's contested about 60 seats:

In seats they're contesting for the first time they're averaging 11%
In seats they're returning to they're averaging 20.43%
Across them all they're averaging 13.68%.

Now what that might well show is that drops in seats they're re-contesting doesn't simply mean that they're being blown out of the water or losing support once they've been exposed - what it possibly shows it that they've achieved a very good first time vote in many seats maybe on the back of a specific local grievance producing a protest vote (i.e the boston bypass vote), around 23-30%, and that in follow up elections rather then just disappearing after the various exposes and don't vote BNP campaigns they're consolidating around the 17-20% - in fact average drop is just 4.8%. On top of that seats where they picked up around 10% first time round they're now better able to jump up to the same level. And the national average has not been driven down by these campaigns either, after a few years of being solidly at 12.3% it's now actually gone up again, despite a bad run of specific results. It means that their appeal is not being impacted on by these approaches and they're steadily developing a broader base.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Most voters do not attack immigrants, neither do they have arms caches in their homes and most voters are still disgusted by the BNP's association with fascism.

As for the 'don't vote BNP' strategy that is assumed to have 'failed'? Thankfully 98% of the population still don't vote BNP.

Quite a lot of that "98% of the population" don't have the vote, you prawn.
And you're making a rather large assumption if you believe that a "don't vote BNP" strategy is chiefly responsible for the low (but increasing) BNP vote. It's far more likely to be down to a combination of social and political conditions, some of which are currently in flux and may therefore allow the BNP a greater "in" than previously.

However, recently, a BBC reporter talking to the those voters of Barking who were considering voting BNP found that the only reason that they were doing so was because they had concerns about immigration. They had little, if any further knowledge about the BNP. So, important still to enlighten those about the BNP's hidden agenda.


...

And here's another possible example of what I call "reporter bias". If you approach someone in the street and/or on the doorstep and ask them a question such as "why do you support...?", you're likely to get the answer that they (the person giving the answer) feel will be most acceptable to you, regardless of whether it's actually an honest answer to the question.
I don't think you can draw any hard and fast conclusions from such relatively thin material.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I dont think the expose the BNP strategy has no value - i know loads of people from all classes who would never vote bnp for that reason - but it cannot be the only method used.

Well, it's mainly the reliance on "expose the BNP" that's being argued, rather than the tactics' innate validity.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I can only go on my experience of the ANL mk1 and knowledge of this sort of activity. Then we slowly built up anti-fascist campaigning locally. It wasn't irregular, but consistent over a long period.
Coupled with RAR, we managed to build in the community we were active within, with regular events to draw people into activity. I assume this is the same strategy today with UAF and LMHR?

By "consistent" do you mean "a consistent ongoing presence in the community(s) in question", or "we consistently visited the community every fortnight, plus whenever there was a racist incident"?
I ask because I know which of those was the norm in my part of SW London, and it never failed to piss off locals to have preachy badge-wearing student socialists descending on them to proclaim their imminent emancipation from the horrors of Nazism!

 

[Pickman's model]

if people still think there's mileage in 'exposing' the bnp, what the fuck's been going on for the past fucking 20 years?