The Black Hand
Unclean
That's got to be a first TBH putting someone else on ignore!
I have always ignored you.
Griffin and BNP strategy
- Thread starter durruti02
- Start date
I have always ignored you.
The Black Hand
Unclean
You cannot argue that them NOT standing is politically neutral for them. It is arguable that it harms their chances and their appeal, the same as an often used argument against the left of jumping in and jumping out of areas.
Of the 21 wards where the BNP stood, they stood for the first time (i know of and without checking ward histories beyond the last vote) in 11 of them.
Thus their vote went up in these wards 11 times. That said their overall vote rise included 2 wards where their vote went up (including Boston), so overall their vote rose in 13 wards out of the 21. Their vote was static in 3 wards, and went DOWN in 5.
Thus in the seats where they have stood previously and stand now, that is 10 altogether. In these seats their vote went down in 5 (50%), static in 3 (30%) and up in only 2 (20%), if you include seats where they have stood previously and do not stand now (6) with this, their fall in votes is even more dramatic - down in 11 out of 16. This is significant, cos it suggests high levels of disenchanchment with the BNP after the initial 'honeymoon period' of the first outing.
TO recap, I think adding up all wards where they have stood previously and do not stand now, should count in an overall assesment of the strength or weakness of the BNP vote. Thus in those 27 wards, their vote went up in 13 (48.148%), down in 11 (40.7407%) and static in 3 (11.1111%). Things do not always go the BNPs way, far from it.
The Black Hand
Unclean
Btw the BNP vote down in 11 out of 16 percentage is 68.75%!!
Rod Sleeves
New Member
That will be interesting, the Labour candidate in Newcastle Central which is a pretty safe Labour seat is a black woman with an African name.
The Black Hand
Unclean
New important BNP research covering 310 wards
BNP Voting levels 2009
This is independent and autonomous analysis of the levels of the BNP vote from 16/10/08 until 27th August 2009. This is complementary research to the first project covering 27th August 2009 until 26th November 2009, those results are available from the author and publicised elsewhere on the web.
Starting point.
The research starts out from covering all wards listed on the Association of Liberal Democratic Councillors (ALDC) website for the period in question (16.10.08 to 27.8.09), 310 wards in total. There is no ‘cherry picking’, and the rationale behind all statistics produced is explained.
The BNP stood in 73 of them, and results show they did not stand in 2 areas where they did last time out. Of these 73 wards, 45 of them were apparently first time out, as records show that they did not stand the previous time in these wards. Without checking all the histories of each ward I am going to have to assume these were first time out.
In these wards the average vote was 14.226%. However, if you minus 5 wards where the BNP did exceptionally well (1st time out scores of between 28.1% and 42.6%), treat these as unusual and not normal, and therefore exclude them, this leaves 40 ward first time out results. The average BNP first time out scores in these 40 wards (the clear majority) is 11.4325%. So that leaves 28 wards where they had stood previously, in 6 (21.43%) of these wards there was no change in their voting level (where there is no evidence of a change in voting level on the records listed on the ALDC website I have assumed there is no change), in 9 (32.14%) wards their vote went up, and in 13 (46.43%) wards their vote went down.
Of course, the BNP vote is going to go up whenever they stand in an area where they did not before, so in some ways these votes are misleading. I call this the honeymoon period, and of course some honeymoons are better than others E.g. In one area the BNP vote jumped from 0% to 41.3% in Sevenoaks on 19/2/08, to win the seat. However, some BNP first time outs are derisory (1-3%), but these do not make the headlines. Often there are particular reasons why the BNP vote goes up, ie. For whatever reasons, some areas appear more receptive to the BNP than others do. Thus in the 9 wards where the BNP vote went up, it rose by an average of 4.85%, however, there were 2 dramatic rises in their vote in 2 of these wards. If you exclude these votes then the average BNP vote rise is only 1.9%, thus these are completely marginal scores in 7 of the 9 seats where the BNP vote rose.
In 6 wards there was no reported change in BNP voting levels, but in 13 (46.43%) wards their vote went down. In these wards, the average BNP voting decline was -6.84%. If you add the voting decline in 2 wards where the BNP failed to stand, where they had the last time, then the voting decline is more dramatic -8.04%. The areas where the BNP fail to stand, where they had previously, ARE weakness, and so it should count in any realistic and serious assessment of the true achievement and potential of the BNP. This suggests that the rate of voter disenchantment with the BNP is higher than the voting rises.
As a whole, even taking into account the areas where the BNP stand for the first time, and where their vote is as a result obviously going to rise, then the rate of BNP decline is higher than their rising voting level in percentage terms. The total voting rise or fall was taken from the 73 seats where they did stand, the 2 where they had stood previously and failed to do so this time out – the result for this is increasing by +7.51%.
While this is some comfort for anti fascists, the steady rise in BNP voting levels across the country, by the shear fact that they are standing in more areas is obviously the most problematic issue. However, this must be tempered by these results, which display high levels of voter disenchantment with the BNP after the initial honeymoon period of the first outing. This is more significant, as it builds upon the first test project covering 101 wards that established the initial ‘BNP dramatic vote decline after the initial honeymoon period’ hypotheses.
This second project, more comprehensive and more than 3 times bigger, covering 310 wards confirms the results of the initial pilot study. The results, covering all areas of the UK in the pilot study anyway, are very generalisable from this new study. Covering even more local and specific areas of the UK, also have the added strength of covering more than a year so any seasonal variations can be discounted, and added together the results are expected to confirm what is apparent with this study. The final briefing will be issued shortly, that adds together the results of these 2 pilot studies.
However, some areas do not conform to this overall trend, and these are the ones, which should be targeted by anti fascists if they are serious about damaging the BNP. These areas are the ones where the different theories and practice of anti fascism can be tested in the harshest conditions, and authentic working class politics discovered as a result.
BNP Voting levels 2009
All rights reserved
This is independent and autonomous analysis of the levels of the BNP vote from 16/10/08 until 27th August 2009. This is complementary research to the first project covering 27th August 2009 until 26th November 2009, those results are available from the author and publicised elsewhere on the web.
Starting point.
The research starts out from covering all wards listed on the Association of Liberal Democratic Councillors (ALDC) website for the period in question (16.10.08 to 27.8.09), 310 wards in total. There is no ‘cherry picking’, and the rationale behind all statistics produced is explained.
The BNP stood in 73 of them, and results show they did not stand in 2 areas where they did last time out. Of these 73 wards, 45 of them were apparently first time out, as records show that they did not stand the previous time in these wards. Without checking all the histories of each ward I am going to have to assume these were first time out.
In these wards the average vote was 14.226%. However, if you minus 5 wards where the BNP did exceptionally well (1st time out scores of between 28.1% and 42.6%), treat these as unusual and not normal, and therefore exclude them, this leaves 40 ward first time out results. The average BNP first time out scores in these 40 wards (the clear majority) is 11.4325%. So that leaves 28 wards where they had stood previously, in 6 (21.43%) of these wards there was no change in their voting level (where there is no evidence of a change in voting level on the records listed on the ALDC website I have assumed there is no change), in 9 (32.14%) wards their vote went up, and in 13 (46.43%) wards their vote went down.
Of course, the BNP vote is going to go up whenever they stand in an area where they did not before, so in some ways these votes are misleading. I call this the honeymoon period, and of course some honeymoons are better than others E.g. In one area the BNP vote jumped from 0% to 41.3% in Sevenoaks on 19/2/08, to win the seat. However, some BNP first time outs are derisory (1-3%), but these do not make the headlines. Often there are particular reasons why the BNP vote goes up, ie. For whatever reasons, some areas appear more receptive to the BNP than others do. Thus in the 9 wards where the BNP vote went up, it rose by an average of 4.85%, however, there were 2 dramatic rises in their vote in 2 of these wards. If you exclude these votes then the average BNP vote rise is only 1.9%, thus these are completely marginal scores in 7 of the 9 seats where the BNP vote rose.
In 6 wards there was no reported change in BNP voting levels, but in 13 (46.43%) wards their vote went down. In these wards, the average BNP voting decline was -6.84%. If you add the voting decline in 2 wards where the BNP failed to stand, where they had the last time, then the voting decline is more dramatic -8.04%. The areas where the BNP fail to stand, where they had previously, ARE weakness, and so it should count in any realistic and serious assessment of the true achievement and potential of the BNP. This suggests that the rate of voter disenchantment with the BNP is higher than the voting rises.
As a whole, even taking into account the areas where the BNP stand for the first time, and where their vote is as a result obviously going to rise, then the rate of BNP decline is higher than their rising voting level in percentage terms. The total voting rise or fall was taken from the 73 seats where they did stand, the 2 where they had stood previously and failed to do so this time out – the result for this is increasing by +7.51%.
While this is some comfort for anti fascists, the steady rise in BNP voting levels across the country, by the shear fact that they are standing in more areas is obviously the most problematic issue. However, this must be tempered by these results, which display high levels of voter disenchantment with the BNP after the initial honeymoon period of the first outing. This is more significant, as it builds upon the first test project covering 101 wards that established the initial ‘BNP dramatic vote decline after the initial honeymoon period’ hypotheses.
This second project, more comprehensive and more than 3 times bigger, covering 310 wards confirms the results of the initial pilot study. The results, covering all areas of the UK in the pilot study anyway, are very generalisable from this new study. Covering even more local and specific areas of the UK, also have the added strength of covering more than a year so any seasonal variations can be discounted, and added together the results are expected to confirm what is apparent with this study. The final briefing will be issued shortly, that adds together the results of these 2 pilot studies.
However, some areas do not conform to this overall trend, and these are the ones, which should be targeted by anti fascists if they are serious about damaging the BNP. These areas are the ones where the different theories and practice of anti fascism can be tested in the harshest conditions, and authentic working class politics discovered as a result.
Louis MacNeice
Autumn Journalist
At a basic level you need to explain why you have discounted the top end scores while not doing the same at the bottom end; a scatter graph of all the results might help you.
Louis MacNeice
Louis MacNeice
The Black Hand
Unclean
are you the opne who's just about to get banned
audiotech
wav, aiff, mp3, ogg, flac
Try reading their constitution. Rule 2(b) - commits the main aim of the party as “stemming and reversing the tide of non-white immigration and to restoring, by legal changes, negotiation and consent, the overwhelmingly white makeup of the British population that existed prior to 1948”. This is a programmatic aim that could not be achieved without forced deportations and violence.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
which areas?
TremulousTetra
prismatic universe
From the BNP constitution
also;
Pretty crucial video this. Griffin says to KKK x leader Duke and to a meeting of white supremacists " our ideas, which are your ideas too"!
Quote:
Nick Griffin says "There is a difference between selling out your ideas, and selling your ideas. And the British National party is not about selling out our ideas, which are your ideas too, but we are determined to sell them. That means using the saleable words, freedom, security, identity, democracy,,, [.......] Where we control the media, perhaps then the British people will say " every last one must go". [....] Instead of talking about racial purity, you talk about identity."
He clearly explains how he intends to decieve the electorate.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The average in the 40 contests from june to october was 12.3%. In the 23 previously uncontested seats they averaged 9.8%. In seats they'd fought before they were averaging 15.5%.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
The Black Hand
Unclean
I do not know what he is talking about, perhaps he cannot follow the maths, but the evidence is clear to me, I have quoted the relevant part here;
"The BNP stood in 73 of them, and results show they did not stand in 2 areas where they did last time out. Of these 73 wards, 45 of them were apparently first time out, as records show that they did not stand the previous time in these wards. Without checking all the histories of each ward I am going to have to assume these were first time out.
In these wards the average vote was 14.226%. However, if you minus 5 wards where the BNP did exceptionally well (1st time out scores of between 28.1% and 42.6%), treat these as unusual and not normal, and therefore exclude them, this leaves 40 ward first time out results. The average BNP first time out scores in these 40 wards (the clear majority) is 11.4325%. So that leaves 28 wards where they had stood previously, in 6 (21.43%) of these wards there was no change in their voting level (where there is no evidence of a change in voting level on the records listed on the ALDC website I have assumed there is no change), in 9 (32.14%) wards their vote went up, and in 13 (46.43%) wards their vote went down."
Of the 73 seats, 45 were first time out, 28 were seats where they had stood previously.
The Black Hand
Unclean
I have just realised that this is your own statistical data that you are supplying Butch, apologies.
The Black Hand
Unclean
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
There's a word for people who cite themselves rather than other sources.
The word is "wankers".
The Black Hand
Unclean
I have been slagged off for citing too many sources before, it is a project in its own right, I don't get your point. You're being a bit OTT there I feel, but never mind...
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
BNP defending two seats tonight - Camp Hill in Nuneaton (which has become a real growth area for them) and Loughton in Epping Forest (another growth area). Also one in St Helens in Hastings.
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
ResistanceMP3
That famous KKK vid certainly shows up the utter racism and planned lies of the filth, but none of it is that suprising to even the casual observer. My "favourite" bit is where he says "Where we control the media". The fascists have quite a few clueless useful idiot apologists at the moment, away from the race obsession it is this quote that shows them to be the totalitarian nightmare and is thus very useful indeed for exposing them.
That famous KKK vid certainly shows up the utter racism and planned lies of the filth, but none of it is that suprising to even the casual observer. My "favourite" bit is where he says "Where we control the media". The fascists have quite a few clueless useful idiot apologists at the moment, away from the race obsession it is this quote that shows them to be the totalitarian nightmare and is thus very useful indeed for exposing them.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Lost the Nuneaton one (edit previous votes etc in later):
Labour 670
BNP 478
Con 275
edit, they also lost the epping forest seat to a residents group.
6% in Hastings -down from 8.8%:
Con 609 (40.7%)
Lab 550 (36.7%)
Lib Dem 210 (14.0%)
BNP 93 (6.2%)
Eng Dem 36 (2.4%)
English Democrat called Bridger - how fitting!
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
Lost the Nuneaton one (edit previous votes etc in later):
Labour 670
BNP 478
Con 275
edit, they also lost the epping forest seat to a residents group.
6% in Hastings -down from 8.8%:
Con 609 (40.7%)
Lab 550 (36.7%)
Lib Dem 210 (14.0%)
BNP 93 (6.2%)
Eng Dem 36 (2.4%)
English Democrat called Bridger - how fitting!
Tx for keeping us abreast, and the results are a fair relief too. A residents group beating them shows what can be done by good local people with some graft.
AKA pseudonym
Well-Known Member
<snip>
English Democrat called Bridger - how fitting!
sorry for possible derail... but who are the English Democrats?
btw: Glad too see the fash defeated, but they still got significent numbers
eta: Quick google, they is a BNP lite kinda party then....
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Anyone been following the Joe Owens campaign on alleged Seachlight activists in the BNP? Particuarly has it in for Molloy and others from Liverpool and the Walker Bros from the North East.
Rod Sleeves
New Member
Isn't one of the Resident's Groups in Epping run by that ex NF leader?
Ian Anderson http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Anderson_(politician)
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Last nights results tidied up - they lost two seats and the vote fell in their 2nd time out in another ward. Not sure what the lost seats say, small parties whose councillors stand down within a year or so tend traditionally to get punished. They'll point to the fact that despite this their vote stood up very well against a labour fightback (more resources blah blah blah) in Nuneaton (which, incidentally has been mirrored nationaly over the recent local elections, lots of big swings to labour from lib-dem and tory including in wards in marginal Parliamentary constituencies) and a one-off protest vote in Loughton and were only 23 votes off keeping the seat.
Camp Hill - Nuneaton
Labour 670 - 47.1%
BNP 478 - 33.6%
Con 275 - 19.3%
2008 result
BNP 675 - 36.1%
Lab 562 - 30.1%
Con 541 - 29%
Soc 88 - 3.8%
Loughton
LRA 257
BNP 234 (30%) (2008 408/16% - multiple councillors elected, including another BNP one)
Lab 204
con 75
23 votes shy.
St Helen's Hasting
Corello (Con) 609 (40.7%)
Ward (Lab) 550 (36.7%)
Tunbridge (Lib Dem) 210 (14.0%)
Weir (BNP) 93 (6.2%) (2008 268 8.8%)
Bridger (Eng Dem) 36 (2.4%)
English Democrat called Bridger - how fitting!
Camp Hill - Nuneaton
Labour 670 - 47.1%
BNP 478 - 33.6%
Con 275 - 19.3%
2008 result
BNP 675 - 36.1%
Lab 562 - 30.1%
Con 541 - 29%
Soc 88 - 3.8%
Loughton
LRA 257
BNP 234 (30%) (2008 408/16% - multiple councillors elected, including another BNP one)
Lab 204
con 75
23 votes shy.
St Helen's Hasting
Corello (Con) 609 (40.7%)
Ward (Lab) 550 (36.7%)
Tunbridge (Lib Dem) 210 (14.0%)
Weir (BNP) 93 (6.2%) (2008 268 8.8%)
Bridger (Eng Dem) 36 (2.4%)
English Democrat called Bridger - how fitting!
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