GE '19: Constituency Predictions & Reports

[JimW]

Labour were putting a call out for folks in Bristol to go and help out up at Stroud last week as the local resources aren’t that strong and Bristol has enough door knockers. Not sure how relevant this is.

All I'd seen for the good was local paper kerfuffle about Tory being a blow in not even living in constituency.

 

[elbows]

Nuneaton. 66% leave, tories had about 10% larger vote share than Labour in the previous 2 general elections. In 2010 it was more like 5%, and in 2005 Labour had 5% more than the tories. That last yougov poll showed something like 56% tory and 36% labour. Anti-Corbyn sentiments very easy to find on the doorstep.

Still apparently considered to be something of a useful indicator of nationwide results and poll accuracy, but thats in quite some part due to its results coming in somewhere around the 1.30am stage.

Here is what the Spectator said about it in an article from yesterday about bellweather seats to watch:

Ten bellwether seats to watch on election night | Coffee House

Nuneaton
Incumbent: Conservative
Majority: 4,739
Expected time to declare: 1.30am
Everyone, from esteemed pollsters to political pundits, seems to have written off a large Labour swing or majority this election. Even so, it probably still makes sense to keep half an eye on Nuneaton on election night. The Warwickshire town has reflected the result nationwide since 1997, and makes a fair case for being a demographic mirror of the UK as a whole. If Labour do win here, it’s probably one of the first signs that the polls have got it very wrong, and we’re heading for a decent sized Labour swing.

They say since 1997 because Labour managed to win it by a few percent in 1992. In 1979 it was also solidly Labour with a 12% advantage. In 1983 and 1987 the tories were about 10% ahead.

 

[bimble]

SW hertfordshire
David Gauke (standing as independent now after being the tory mp here for 14 yrs) will probably lose by a smallish margin (10%?) to the random cllr flown in to replace him. What I don't understand is why, whether its brexit or just habit of putting an x next to the picture of the blue tree.

Well. He lost by a massive margin. Similar story for Dominic Grieve in beakonsfield.

 

[redsquirrel]

Always on the cards. MPs like to pretend they have this amazing personal vote, if this election showed one thing it's that 99% don't.

 

[andysays]

Good to see Mike Gapes came a poor third in Ilford North as well.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Manchester Central - labour increased their majority from 20k in 2015 to 30k in 2017 so I expect they will comfortably hold that.

She held the seat, and her majority only dropped to around 29k.

 

[Bus Honeygun]

Exeter - Labour hold.

Big personal vote for Ben Bradshaw, who despite his Blairite leanings is a diligent and hard-working MP. It's a win-win for him as any Corbynites locally will still vote Labour for the party. Add in the Lib Dems standing aside on account of Bradshaw's vocal Remainer stance and it should be easy.

Not quite 'easy'. A reduced majority but still a comfortable 10,000.

Some small comfort that Luke Pollard - another good MP - held on in Plymouth, so the two red dots west of Bristol remain.

 

[Sue]

Linlithgow and East Falkirk. Went SNP in 2015 (previously Labour and before boundary changes part of the constituency held long term by Tam Dalyell).

Majority of less than 3000, down from 13000 in 2015. Staying with family in the constituency at the moment and they're pretty sure it'll stay SNP. (My BIL's been out campaigning for them.)

ETA The Tory candidate has just delivered a leaflet (they're in second place here). Only 'policy' stuff on it is the choice between 'Nicola Sturgeon's candidate and Indyref 2' or the Tory who will ' fight to stop Indyref 2' happening. Assume that's the general Tory message.

SNP hold majority 11 000 (+8%)
Con (-4.5%)
Labour (-13%)

 

[Leafster]

Surrey East - previously a very safe Tory seat. I can't see that changing. In the local council elections they lost overall control in Tandridge which makes up the bulk of the constituency so I suspect a reduced but still significant majority.

Con Hold

Con - 35,624 (0%)
LibDem - 11,584 (+8.9%)
Lab - 8,247 (-5.4%)
Green - 2,340 (+2.1%)
Ind (aka UKIP in disguise) - 1,374 (-1.5%)
Monster Raving Loony Party - 521 (+0.9)

The majority is actually up a hundred or so to 24,040

 

[brogdale]

Carshalton & Wallington here! (Outer South London suburbia)

LD remainiac Tom Brake to retain seat with another close-run tussle with the tories.

The LDs will take back from the 9k 2017 Lab vote (possibly knocking them back to 5k?) to hold on despite a strong, well supported (by Scully's lot next door) campaign.

Staying part of the SW 'golden crescent' of outer London.

Prediction: LD hold

(as usual) an inept prediction
The arch remainiac lost by 629 votes:

 

[kebabking]

Mid-Worcesteshire...

already one of the worlds safest tory seats, its now even safer. 66.7% of the vote, and 28,000 ahead of the next candidate. Labour dropped by about 7% which was hoovered up by the LD's who still needn't have bothered, and the Greens, who also needn't have bothered.

 

[Plumdaff]

I'm in Cardiff West which will be a safe Labour hold. Anna McMorrin may increase her majority to hold Cardiff North, but Vale of Glamorgan will be a Con hold, with the odious Cairns clinging on.

Unfortunately I was right

 

[StoneRoad]

As I expected, Hexham returned the tory, Opperman, unfortunately with an increased majority.
I've met him, a right wing smarmy snake oil salesman.

 

[imposs1904]

Can from someone from that neck of the woods explain the Bristol West constituency to me. This seems like a remarkable result. (I know the LibDems stood down for the Greens.)

 

[butchersapron]

Can from someone from that neck of the woods explain the Bristol West constituency to me. This seems like a remarkable result. (I know the LibDems stood down for the Greens.)

View attachment 192889

That's actually a slightly disappointing result for them. Check the previous one. It's where a load of well off hippy/liberal green types/incomers pushing the prices/students up live. These people were viciously bit by the lib-dem bug in 2010 then viciously turned against them. These idiots love the MP as she's anti-corbyn and pro-remain. Only around half of these votes are solid.

 

[planetgeli]

View attachment 191705 Carmarthenshire East & Dinefwr

Nominally a three way fight but in reality Plaid Cymru have owned this seat in the 21st century. Can’t see this changing. The Brexit Party have made a late entry into the nominations from the candidate in Pembrokeshire who isn’t allowed to stand there because of Farage’s ‘pact’ with the Tories. So he’ll nick 1000 (what UKIP, in the form of Neil Hamilton, got last time around) votes off the Tories here instead.

PC Hold.

Correct. Brexit Party polled over 2000 votes which can only have helped Plaid who won with a reduced majority of 1,800.
Remember the referendum result here was 52-48 to leave and Plaid went full on remain. Tories can’t do any better than this here and will be trounced next time. Labour vote collapsed.

 

[chilango]

Reading East

A shock Labour gain in 2017 with a 10% swing. Holding this will be a good sign for Labour. The signs are cautiously good for Labour. They've been active on the ground with leaflets, stalls and posters. The only visible Party in most of seat.

The Greens have been keeping their heads down and it's likely they'll continue to lend Labour a couple of thousand votes.

The Lib Dems are invisible but will likely pick up a chunk of the Tory vote who want to stop Corbyn but want to morally have their hands clean regarding Brexit so they can blame others should it come to pass.

The Tories - who knows? There's plenty of people sat on half a million quid+ semis in 'burbs who will vote with their pockets.

Prediction? Labour hold.

Yep. Pretty much the only prediction I got right.

The Labour vote held and their majority increased. Lib Dems up a bit at the expense of the Tories it seems.

 

[imposs1904]

That's actually a slightly disappointing result for them. Check the previous one. It's where a load of well off hippy/liberal green types/incomers pushing the prices/students up live. These people were viciously bit by the lib-dem bug in 2010 then viciously turned against them. These idiots love the MP as she's anti-corbyn and pro-remain. Only around half of these votes are solid.

Kind of sounds like Park Slope in Brooklyn.

 

[butchersapron]

Kind of sounds like Park Slope in Brooklyn.

Quite poss, couldn't say. I would not be surprised to see that seat lost within 10 years because 20 000+ people there are pottage. And it's only going to get worse.